Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the US dollar index and the implications of Federal Reserve strategies, particularly the suggestion to replace the federal funds rate with the Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR) [1] Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - As of September 29, the US dollar index is priced at 97.95, reflecting a decline of 0.24% from an opening price of 98.17 [1] - A potential breakdown of the support zone between 97.20 and 97.00 could trigger a new wave of technical selling, pushing the index further down to 96.50 or even 96.00 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Strategist Jan Nevruzi from TD Securities finds the proposal by Fed's Logan to use TGCR instead of the federal funds rate "very reasonable" [1] - Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, emphasizes the need for the Fed to have a backup plan in case of significant divergence between the federal funds rate and more relevant market rates like TGCR [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - For the dollar index to reverse its current downward trend, it must rebound strongly and effectively break through the resistance level of 98.50, which would restore market confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing fluctuations with the US dollar gaining strength due to supportive economic data and geopolitical concerns, while other currencies like the euro and pound are showing mixed trends [2][3]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The British pound against the US dollar showed a "bottoming rebound - range oscillation" pattern, while the euro against the dollar exhibited a similar "bottoming rebound - narrow oscillation" pattern [1]. - The US dollar against the Japanese yen is in a "strong trend with short-term consolidation" phase, indicating potential for further upward movement [1]. - The Australian dollar against the US dollar is in a "continuation of the downtrend + short-term support testing" stage, suggesting ongoing weakness [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Insights - Recent strong US economic data has bolstered the dollar's advantage, reducing expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2]. - Federal Reserve officials indicate that consumer spending remains healthy, but there are concerns about potential job losses affecting future spending [2]. - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged due to controlled inflation, as noted by Investec economists [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - For the euro/dollar pair, the MACD indicates a weak bearish structure, with potential resistance at 1.1845 and support levels at 1.1645 and 1.1573 [4]. - The pound/dollar pair has seen a significant drop, but it has not closed below the support level of 1.3332, suggesting a possible temporary halt in the downward trend [4]. - The dollar/yen pair has surpassed 149.04, indicating the end of bearish sentiment and the potential for bullish development, with resistance at 150.50 [5].

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3740, with a slight decline of 0.21%, and has shown a bullish short-term trend [1] - The highest price reached was $3753.12, while the lowest was $3737.06, indicating volatility within a narrow range [1] Group 2 - Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan suggests that the Federal Reserve should abandon the federal funds rate as the benchmark for monetary policy and consider linking it to a more robust overnight rate tied to the U.S. Treasury collateral loan market [2] - Logan emphasizes that the federal funds rate target is outdated and that the connection between the interbank market and the overnight money market is weak, which could lead to sudden disruptions [2] - She advocates for updating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy implementation mechanism to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the central banking system [2] Group 3 - Recent gold price movements have shown fluctuations, with a pattern of rising and falling, but overall remaining within the expected range of $3368-$3420 [3] - A descending triangle pattern has formed, indicating that the volatility range is narrowing, which suggests a potential breakout could occur [3] - Key support is identified at the previous low of $3717, and if this level is breached, further declines could extend to $3705, $3690, and $3680 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The suggestion by Federal Reserve's Logan to replace the federal funds rate with the Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR) is considered reasonable by market analysts, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy approach [1] Group 1 - TD Securities strategist Jan Nevruzi notes that the TGCR could be a more stable reference compared to the federal funds market, which experiences higher daily volatility [1] - Wrightson ICAP's chief economist Lou Crandall emphasizes the importance of having a backup plan for the Federal Reserve in case of significant divergence between the federal funds rate and more relevant market rates like TGCR [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Fed President Logan suggests that the Federal Reserve should abandon the federal funds rate as the benchmark for monetary policy and consider linking it to a more robust overnight rate tied to the U.S. Treasury collateralized loan market [1] Group 1 - Logan believes the target for the federal funds rate is outdated and that the connection between the interbank market and the overnight money market is weak and could suddenly break [1] - She emphasizes that updating the mechanism for implementing monetary policy will be part of an efficient and effective central banking system [1] - Logan argues that the Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR) could provide the most benefits, as it covers over $1 trillion in transactions daily, allowing for effective transmission in the money market [1] Group 2 - The average trading volume in the federal funds market is currently less than $100 billion, highlighting the disparity in transaction volumes compared to TGCR [1] - Logan warns that if the transmission mechanism of the federal funds rate fails, a quick alternative target will be necessary, and making important decisions under time pressure is not conducive to a strong economy and financial system [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Fed President Logan suggests that the Federal Reserve should abandon the federal funds rate as the benchmark for implementing monetary policy and consider linking it to a more robust overnight rate tied to the U.S. Treasury collateralized loan market [1] Group 1 - Logan believes the target for the federal funds rate is outdated and that the connection between the interbank market and the overnight money market is weak and could suddenly break [1] - She emphasizes that updating the mechanism for implementing monetary policy will be part of an efficient and effective central banking system [1] - Logan argues that the Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR) could provide the most benefits, as it covers over $1 trillion in transactions daily, allowing for effective transmission in the money market [1] Group 2 - The average trading volume in the federal funds market is currently less than $100 billion, highlighting the disparity in transaction volumes compared to TGCR [1] - Logan warns that if the transmission mechanism between the federal funds rate and other money markets fails, a quick alternative target will be necessary, and making important decisions under time pressure is not conducive to a strong economy and financial system [1]