Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a brief surge above $4130 per ounce but closed at $4078.22 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.26% despite a strong dollar limiting gains [1] - International crude oil prices fell sharply due to news of renewed US efforts to facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, with WTI crude dropping 1.96% to $59.4 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.89% to $63.26 per barrel [1] - The US and Russia are reportedly drafting a 28-point framework for peace talks, which includes demands for Ukraine to cede territory, reduce military forces, and limit weaponry, with expectations of an agreement by the end of November [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has postponed the release of the October non-farm payroll report, with the November report now scheduled for December 16, potentially leaving the Fed without the latest employment data for its December meeting [1] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some opposing cuts while others were open to maintaining rates [2] - The UK has seen its inflation rate decline for the first time in seven months, leading to increased market speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in December [3] Group 3 - The European Union is planning its 20th round of sanctions against Russia, specifically targeting the "shadow fleet" of oil tankers [4]

Group 1: Financial Technology Collaboration - Hong Kong's Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and Shenzhen's Local Financial Supervision Bureau jointly released an action plan for building a global financial technology center from 2025 to 2027, focusing on six key areas for collaboration to create a competitive fintech ecosystem [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Vice President revealed that the "Swap Connect" will expand the list of dealers and optimize liquidity management tools, while the Securities and Futures Commission's Executive Director indicated that the Southbound "Swap Connect" is in the discussion stage to better serve international investor needs [1] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for prioritizing adjustments to Wall Street's regulatory framework to ease the burden on financial institutions, paving the way for future asset balance sheet reductions, and expressed hope to end quantitative tightening in October [2] - The Federal Reserve's October FOMC meeting minutes showed significant divisions among decision-makers regarding interest rate cuts, but there was a general consensus to pause rate hikes for the year, with nearly all members agreeing to immediately end quantitative tightening [1][2] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit in August plummeted by 24% to $59.6 billion, with the goods deficit shrinking to $83.7 billion, the smallest since the end of 2023, driven by a 5.1% decline in imports and a slight rebound in exports [2] - Japan's government plans to introduce an economic stimulus package exceeding 20 trillion yen, along with a supplementary budget of about 17 trillion yen, to address slowing growth and inflation pressures [2] Group 4: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.1% to 46,138.77 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.38% to 6,642.16 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.59% to 22,564.23 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.29% to $4,078.30 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.08% to $51.07 per ounce [4] - U.S. crude oil futures fell by 2.08% to $59.41 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.88% to $63.67 per barrel [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hawkish stance of the Fed's monetary policy has significantly pressured the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, pausing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and a long - position approach to gold and silver prices should be maintained as the Fed will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, providing a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the balance sheet [2]. - Structurally, the tight supply situation of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio is still significantly higher than the historical average. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 10, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.25% to 919.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.10% to 11,405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.23 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.62 [2]. 3.2 Policy Analysis - In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish interest rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00% while taking a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. He believed that the December interest rate cut was not certain, and the pace of interest rate cuts could slow down if economic data continued to be missing due to a government shutdown. He also thought inflation was still high and had rebounded recently [2]. - 2026 FOMC voter and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks on November 6, believing that monetary policy might not be ready to handle the current inflation level, and the current economic environment was not conducive to further interest rate cuts [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said the neutral interest rate was difficult to estimate, with the model showing 1%, and emphasized the resilience of inflation [2]. - Powell announced that the Fed would end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st due to obvious pressure in the money market, and the real - world situation after the meeting confirmed his statement on liquidity, providing a reason for the subsequent balance sheet expansion [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the precious metals sector, the tight supply of overseas silver spot is difficult to resolve. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Statistics - Gold and silver price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other data on November 7, 2025, showed that most indicators had certain changes compared with the previous day, such as the closing price of COMEX gold active contract rising 0.58% to 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume rising 8.30% to 19.89 million lots [5]. - As of November 7, 2025, the internal - external price differences of gold and silver were calculated, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences [54].

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 87,816 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [1][2] - On November 4, gold futures opened at 921.90 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 925.86 yuan and a low of 912.08 yuan, closing at 915.58 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.50% [1][2] - The trading volume for the day was 332,993 contracts, with open interest at 144,602 contracts, showing a decrease of 6,771 contracts in daily open interest [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. has agreed to cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, while the 24% reciprocal tariff will remain suspended for another year [2] - The Federal Reserve has expressed increasing internal divisions regarding the possibility of another rate cut in December, following a 25 basis point cut in October, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% [2] - Market expectations indicate a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in the gold and silver markets are influenced by the upcoming meeting between the leaders of China and the United States, as well as the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and its implications for monetary policy [1][2][3] Group 1: Gold Market - On October 30, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 912.16 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.82% with a trading volume of 412,100 lots and an open interest of 163,611 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 898.20 yuan per gram, indicating a premium of 13.96 yuan per gram over the futures price [1] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, and announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [2][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Market sentiment is cautious as the Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell signaled a hawkish stance, which has tempered expectations for further rate cuts in December [2][3] - The gold market is currently in a phase of correction, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, suggesting that long positions in gold should be maintained [3] - Silver is also experiencing a phase of correction, with significant declines in ETF holdings, yet the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged, recommending the continuation of low-position long positions in silver [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - end Treasury bonds rose, and the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond remained at 1.8125%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 4195 billion yuan, and Shibor short - end varieties declined collectively, easing the tightness of the capital market. The central bank governor stated that it would continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance and implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of QT, but Powell's hawkish remarks on the prospect of a December interest rate cut led to a decrease in the market's probability of a December rate cut and a rebound in US Treasury yields. The domestic economy showed mixed performance, with the real - estate sector still in adjustment. With the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market Treasury bond trading operations, market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the short - end Treasury bond futures prices [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Yield**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.14%. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates generally declined, such as SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 1.8bp, DR007 rate down 2.56bp, and GC007 rate down 2.5bp [2]. - **Volume and Position**: The trading volume and open interest of various Treasury bond futures contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of T2512 increased by 7086, while that of TL2512 decreased by 1892 [2]. - **Spread**: The inter - term spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the inter - term spread of T2512 - T2603 increased from 0.3150 to 0.330 [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: The yields of China's key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.1bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 30.67bp [2]. - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The yields of US and German 10 - year Treasury bonds and Japanese 10 - year Treasury bonds all rose. The US 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 9bp, the German 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1bp, and the Japanese 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On October 29, the central bank conducted 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4195 billion yuan after deducting the maturing reverse repurchases [3]. - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced the end of QT. However, Powell's remarks led to a decrease in the market's expectation of a December rate cut [3]. - **Economic Data**: In the first nine months, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 61.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, and the total profit was 3.17 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of the end of September, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, up 0.2 percentage points year - on - year [3]. Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: Most money market interest rates declined. For example, the weighted average interest rate of the 1 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase fell 6.42bp to 1.4045%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.28bp to 1.5452% [3]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields rose collectively. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 10.62bp to 3.592%, and the 10 - year yield rose 9.82bp to 4.074% [3].

Group 1 - The US dollar index is currently at 99.02, showing a slight decline of 0.14%, with key resistance at 99.50 and support at 98.50 [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year, and will end balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [1] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 2 - The US government shutdown, which has lasted nearly a month, is showing signs of resolution as bipartisan discussions gain urgency due to impending deadlines [2] - Republican leaders are considering a new temporary funding bill, with proposals to extend government funding until January 21 or even March [2] - The technical analysis indicates that the dollar index may maintain an upward trend if it stabilizes above 98.75, with targets set between 99.55 and 99.80 [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1] - The Fed announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1, indicating a shift in monetary policy [1] - There is a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate decisions, with some officials suggesting to wait at least one meeting cycle before making further changes [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations, with a recent drop to 99.05, down 0.11%, after a previous increase [1] - Technical analysis suggests that if the dollar index stabilizes above 98.75, it may target levels between 99.55 and 99.80 in the future [3] - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 99.50-99.55, while important support levels are at 99.05-99.10 and 98.75-98.80 [3]

Summary of FOMC October Meeting Recap Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly focusing on interest rates and economic indicators. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Adjustment**: The FOMC lowered the target range for the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% during the October meeting [2][3][4] 2. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC announced that balance sheet runoff would conclude at the start of December, with principal payments of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested solely into Treasury bills [3][4] 3. **Inflation Insights**: Chair Powell indicated that inflation, excluding tariff effects, is nearing the 2% target, with tariff impacts estimated to have raised prices by 0.5-0.6% [4][12] 4. **Labor Market Trends**: Alternative data suggests a gradual cooling in the labor market, which aligns with the analysis presented [4][10] 5. **Hawkish Tone**: Powell's press conference was more hawkish than anticipated, avoiding references to the September dot plot that suggested a third cut in December [5][8] 6. **Diverse Opinions within FOMC**: Powell acknowledged differing views among FOMC members regarding the December cut, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach [6][7] 7. **Data Collection Challenges**: The government shutdown has hindered the release of official economic data, complicating the FOMC's decision-making process [11] 8. **Future Policy Stance**: Powell views the current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, which may necessitate another cut unless the labor market stabilizes by December [12] Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The bond market perceived Powell's statements as a hawkish surprise, indicating potential volatility in response to future policy changes [5][8] - **Labor Market Weakness**: There is a belief that genuine labor market weakness exists, which could lead to negative payroll reports and further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - **Risk Management Cuts**: There is substantial opposition within the FOMC regarding risk management cuts, suggesting a complex internal dynamic influencing policy decisions [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the FOMC's October meeting, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and economic conditions.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, indicates that the U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, but the government shutdown may temporarily hinder economic activity. The labor market is gradually cooling, with rising downside risks to employment, yet initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting a slow decline rather than a rapid downturn [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Powell expects the economic growth rate for the year to be around 1.6%, lower than the previous year. He emphasizes that there has been no significant deterioration across various economic sectors [2]. - The Fed's monetary policy remains moderately restrictive, with inflation slightly above target levels. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) is projected to be around 2.3% to 2.4%, while inflation excluding tariffs is only 0.5% to 0.6% above the 2% target [1][3]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, citing recent pressures in the money market that necessitate immediate adjustments. Powell notes that the benefits of continuing quantitative tightening (QT) are diminishing, and the Fed will maintain stability in the short term [3]. - Powell acknowledges that there is no zero-risk policy path, and the balance of risks has shifted. The recent rate cuts are steps toward a more neutral policy stance, but the decision for further rate adjustments in December remains uncertain due to data shortages caused by the government shutdown [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's statements, the dollar index rose by 0.60%, while the two-year Treasury yield surged to 3.59%. The stock market experienced a downturn as traders adjusted their expectations for a December rate cut, now estimated at 65%, down from 90% prior to the meeting [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that Powell's comments reflect internal tensions within the Fed regarding further rate cuts, especially with inflation remaining high. This has led to a temporary market reaction, as investors had anticipated more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy [5][6].