一季度债市，和历史经验会有什么不同？20251228 摘要 中央经济工作会议定调及政府债券发行节奏是关键。会议显示传统经济 领域稳健，两会后超预期政策概率小，短期利好债市。政府债券发行进 度或放缓，一季度地方债久期预计不会太长，各地政府将根据未来利率 变动进行调整。 权益市场春季躁动或对债市形成压力，但非直接影响。货币政策出现显 著变化，买断式回购和 MLF 改革增强央行操作灵活性，存款利率下行及 存款置换增加存单利率下行概率。 春节前后配置力量有望增强。大银行 EVE 指标变化和小银行 KPI 制定完 成后，买入策略将明确。利率反弹向上时，保险公司购买超长期国债的 量也在逐渐增加。 新兴经济与传统经济增长效能分化，股、商品行情并非直接影响债市。 可能出现股、商品双牛局面，对整体市场形成积极作用。 利率波动中枢预计在 1.7%至 1.95%之间，上行突破 1.95%的概率不高， 如果存单利率下行，则有望达到 1.75%左右甚至更低。一季度内，有望 出现类似于今年 3 月或 10 月那样的机会窗口。 Q&A 2026 年一季度债市的整体预期如何？ 2026 年一季度的债市预期较为复杂，既有与历史相似的因素，也有 ...

美联储周四提前完成地方联储主席连任投票，消除了特朗普盟友可能阻挠这些央行官员留任的担忧，此 举确保了联储系统内最强鹰派声音的延续。 美联储理事会表示，已批准11名有意留任的地方联储主席连任决定。这一每五年举行的投票原定于2月 底前完成，但提前实施反映出对潜在政治干预的防范。 地方联储主席们近期展现出明显的鹰派立场。芝加哥联储主席Austan Goolsbee和堪萨斯城联储主席 Jeffrey Schmid在周三降息决议中投出反对票，另有四名官员通过点阵图表达了对维持更高利率水平的 偏好。 另有四名官员通过点阵图显示，他们认为借贷成本应维持在10月设定的3.75%-4%区间。分析师指出， 其中两人很可能是克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack和达拉斯联储主席Lorie Logan，两人将从1月起获得 货币政策投票权。 这种鹰派立场与特朗普及其经济顾问呼吁央行大幅降息的主张形成鲜明对比。地方联储主席们持续警告 通胀上升的风险，成为抵制过度宽松政策的重要力量。 政治干预担忧促成提前决定 虽然地方联储主席连任程序历来很少引起关注，但特朗普对美联储的敌对态度引发了外界对政治干预的 担忧。此次提前完成连任投票，被视为防 ...

SHMET 网讯：美国总统特朗普心中已有了下一任美联储主席的人选，但目前尚未公布。预测市场 似乎已达成共识，但领跑者也对此讳莫如深。 尽管人选的悬念预计将在未来几周内揭晓，但远不确定的是，在美国经济处于潜在十字路口之际， 这位新的央行领导者将面临何种环境。 国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）被视为最明确的领跑者。此前彭博新闻社上周的 一份报告评估了五位有望接替现任主席鲍威尔的竞争者，哈塞特因此备受提振。鲍威尔的任期将于明年 5月届满。 上周日被问及这一情况时，特朗普在空军一号上告诉记者："是的，我知道我要选谁。我们会宣布 的。"除此之外，当被问及哈塞特时，他只是笑了笑，补充道："我不会告诉你的，我们会宣布的。" 候选人本人在上周末的访谈节目中露面，同样回避了关于其前景的问题。哈塞特是候选人之一，其 他竞争者包括现任理事沃勒和鲍曼、前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）以及贝莱德固定收益部门主管里 克·里德（Rick Rieder）。 "能与一群非常优秀的候选人并列，我感到非常荣幸，"哈塞特在哥伦比亚广播公司的"面对全国"节 目中说。他确实提到，市场对他成为热门人选的报告反应积极， ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urges the Argentine government led by President Milei to accelerate the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves as part of a $20 billion agreement with the IMF [1] Group 1: IMF's Recommendations - IMF officials emphasize the need to speed up reserve accumulation to better manage volatility and enhance market confidence [1] - The chosen policy framework must align with strengthening international reserves and maintaining external stability while ensuring robust and sustainable national growth [1] Group 2: Government and Investor Relations - There is an ongoing debate between Milei's team and some investors regarding the necessity for comprehensive reforms in monetary policy, which has been a critical weakness in Argentina's past cooperation with the IMF [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3740, with a slight decline of 0.21%, and has shown a bullish short-term trend [1] - The highest price reached was $3753.12, while the lowest was $3737.06, indicating volatility within a narrow range [1] Group 2 - Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan suggests that the Federal Reserve should abandon the federal funds rate as the benchmark for monetary policy and consider linking it to a more robust overnight rate tied to the U.S. Treasury collateral loan market [2] - Logan emphasizes that the federal funds rate target is outdated and that the connection between the interbank market and the overnight money market is weak, which could lead to sudden disruptions [2] - She advocates for updating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy implementation mechanism to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the central banking system [2] Group 3 - Recent gold price movements have shown fluctuations, with a pattern of rising and falling, but overall remaining within the expected range of $3368-$3420 [3] - A descending triangle pattern has formed, indicating that the volatility range is narrowing, which suggests a potential breakout could occur [3] - Key support is identified at the previous low of $3717, and if this level is breached, further declines could extend to $3705, $3690, and $3680 [3]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fill the upcoming vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, which is currently held by Adriana Kugler, whose term ends in January [1][4][7] Group 1: Nomination Details - The nomination of Miran is intended to fill the position left by Kugler, who will officially resign on August 8 [7] - Miran has been working with Trump since the beginning of his second term and is noted for his exceptional expertise in economics [4] - The nomination requires approval from the U.S. Senate [4] Group 2: Miran's Background and Views - Miran previously served as a senior economic advisor at the U.S. Treasury during Trump's first term and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University [4] - He has been a critic of the Federal Reserve's recent performance and advocates for fundamental reforms within the institution [8] Group 3: Proposed Reforms - In a 24-page reform plan co-authored with Dan Katz, Miran attributes the Federal Reserve's policy errors to "groupthink" [9] - The report argues that the Federal Reserve has extended its authority into political realms beyond its statutory limits, raising questions about its operational independence [10] - A notable reform proposal suggests separating monetary policy formulation from banking regulation and oversight functions, which would require legislative action [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential challenges facing the U.S. economy as it navigates through uncertain trade policies and a fragile labor market, which could lead to significant economic disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining stable between 4% and 4.2% over the past year, indicating a seemingly healthy labor market [1]. - However, there are underlying issues, such as a slowdown in job growth and a cooling real estate market, which raise concerns about future economic stability [1]. Group 2: Risks to the Economy - The article identifies three major risks that could lead to severe economic consequences: a fragile labor market, potential declines in consumer spending, and financial market shocks [3][4][5]. - The labor market is described as being in an unstable equilibrium, where companies are hesitant to lay off employees but are also not hiring, which could lead to a sudden spike in unemployment if demand weakens [4]. - Consumer debt delinquency rates have been rising, raising concerns that low-income borrowers may cut back on spending, which could further slow economic growth [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing four significant challenges: unpredictable tariff policies, uncertainty in government fiscal policies, discrepancies in economic data, and the unpredictable impact of innovations like AI [2]. - The Fed has paused interest rate cuts due to concerns over new inflation risks stemming from tariffs, which could lead to increased borrowing costs and affect corporate profitability [6]. Group 4: Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting various strategies to cope with the current economic challenges, with some choosing to wait and see while others adjust their supply chains [7]. - There is a consensus among economists that the key to avoiding a recession lies in the health of the U.S. consumer, with many believing the likelihood of a recession has increased compared to earlier in the year [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy reform has been ongoing for nearly a year, transitioning towards a "price-based" adjustment mechanism while increasing the use of structural monetary policy tools. The article explores the innovations in the monetary policy framework, the actual usage of structural tools, and the changes in market interest rates [1][4][26]. Group 1: Changes in Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank has established a liquidity supply structure that includes pledged reverse repos for short-term liquidity, buyout reverse repos for medium-term liquidity, and MLF, reserve requirements, and secondary market purchases of government bonds for long-term liquidity [12]. - The process of interest rate liberalization has accelerated since 2013, with significant milestones including the introduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the establishment of the interest rate corridor mechanism [4][6]. - A narrower "overnight-7 days" interest rate corridor has been implemented, allowing for more flexible monetary policy adjustments and a higher tolerance for upward interest rate fluctuations [6][8]. Group 2: Current Status of Structural Tools - The transmission of monetary policy is hindered by a lack of endogenous financing demand, with funds not converting into real investments and consumption due to economic structural transformation and internal circulation of funds within the banking system [2][13]. - The usage rates of structural monetary policy tools are low, with only a few tools exceeding a 50% usage rate, while many others, particularly those targeting real estate and transportation, are below 30% [18][19]. - The challenges in utilizing structural tools stem from industry development limitations and execution difficulties, as well as the cyclical nature of industries and declining relative advantages [19][23]. Group 3: Impact of Framework Adjustments on Interest Rates - The central bank is likely to separate the policy goals of narrow and broad liquidity, maintaining a balance that does not adversely affect real financing [26]. - Market interest rates have shown three types of inversion phenomena, including the inversion between 7-day and overnight rates, indicating a mismatch in the transmission of interest rates from short to long [29][31]. - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with short-term rates rising sharply due to tightening liquidity, while long-term rates remain constrained by economic fundamentals and expectations of interest rate cuts [33].