Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fill the upcoming vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, which is currently held by Adriana Kugler, whose term ends in January [1][4][7] Group 1: Nomination Details - The nomination of Miran is intended to fill the position left by Kugler, who will officially resign on August 8 [7] - Miran has been working with Trump since the beginning of his second term and is noted for his exceptional expertise in economics [4] - The nomination requires approval from the U.S. Senate [4] Group 2: Miran's Background and Views - Miran previously served as a senior economic advisor at the U.S. Treasury during Trump's first term and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University [4] - He has been a critic of the Federal Reserve's recent performance and advocates for fundamental reforms within the institution [8] Group 3: Proposed Reforms - In a 24-page reform plan co-authored with Dan Katz, Miran attributes the Federal Reserve's policy errors to "groupthink" [9] - The report argues that the Federal Reserve has extended its authority into political realms beyond its statutory limits, raising questions about its operational independence [10] - A notable reform proposal suggests separating monetary policy formulation from banking regulation and oversight functions, which would require legislative action [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential challenges facing the U.S. economy as it navigates through uncertain trade policies and a fragile labor market, which could lead to significant economic disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining stable between 4% and 4.2% over the past year, indicating a seemingly healthy labor market [1]. - However, there are underlying issues, such as a slowdown in job growth and a cooling real estate market, which raise concerns about future economic stability [1]. Group 2: Risks to the Economy - The article identifies three major risks that could lead to severe economic consequences: a fragile labor market, potential declines in consumer spending, and financial market shocks [3][4][5]. - The labor market is described as being in an unstable equilibrium, where companies are hesitant to lay off employees but are also not hiring, which could lead to a sudden spike in unemployment if demand weakens [4]. - Consumer debt delinquency rates have been rising, raising concerns that low-income borrowers may cut back on spending, which could further slow economic growth [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing four significant challenges: unpredictable tariff policies, uncertainty in government fiscal policies, discrepancies in economic data, and the unpredictable impact of innovations like AI [2]. - The Fed has paused interest rate cuts due to concerns over new inflation risks stemming from tariffs, which could lead to increased borrowing costs and affect corporate profitability [6]. Group 4: Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting various strategies to cope with the current economic challenges, with some choosing to wait and see while others adjust their supply chains [7]. - There is a consensus among economists that the key to avoiding a recession lies in the health of the U.S. consumer, with many believing the likelihood of a recession has increased compared to earlier in the year [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy reform has been ongoing for nearly a year, transitioning towards a "price-based" adjustment mechanism while increasing the use of structural monetary policy tools. The article explores the innovations in the monetary policy framework, the actual usage of structural tools, and the changes in market interest rates [1][4][26]. Group 1: Changes in Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank has established a liquidity supply structure that includes pledged reverse repos for short-term liquidity, buyout reverse repos for medium-term liquidity, and MLF, reserve requirements, and secondary market purchases of government bonds for long-term liquidity [12]. - The process of interest rate liberalization has accelerated since 2013, with significant milestones including the introduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the establishment of the interest rate corridor mechanism [4][6]. - A narrower "overnight-7 days" interest rate corridor has been implemented, allowing for more flexible monetary policy adjustments and a higher tolerance for upward interest rate fluctuations [6][8]. Group 2: Current Status of Structural Tools - The transmission of monetary policy is hindered by a lack of endogenous financing demand, with funds not converting into real investments and consumption due to economic structural transformation and internal circulation of funds within the banking system [2][13]. - The usage rates of structural monetary policy tools are low, with only a few tools exceeding a 50% usage rate, while many others, particularly those targeting real estate and transportation, are below 30% [18][19]. - The challenges in utilizing structural tools stem from industry development limitations and execution difficulties, as well as the cyclical nature of industries and declining relative advantages [19][23]. Group 3: Impact of Framework Adjustments on Interest Rates - The central bank is likely to separate the policy goals of narrow and broad liquidity, maintaining a balance that does not adversely affect real financing [26]. - Market interest rates have shown three types of inversion phenomena, including the inversion between 7-day and overnight rates, indicating a mismatch in the transmission of interest rates from short to long [29][31]. - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with short-term rates rising sharply due to tightening liquidity, while long-term rates remain constrained by economic fundamentals and expectations of interest rate cuts [33].