Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qilu Bank [1][8][20] Core Views - Qilu Bank's revenue increased by 5.76% year-on-year in H1 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 16.48%, indicating improved growth rates for both revenue and net profit [6][8] - The bank's total assets reached 7.513 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.02% [6] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for corporate loans decreased by 18 basis points to 0.77% compared to the end of 2024, showing significant improvement in asset quality [6][8] - The net interest margin (NIM) increased to 1.53%, up by 2 basis points from the end of 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability [6][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - Qilu Bank's stock performance over the past year shows a 25.8% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 37.2% [3] - As of August 29, 2025, the stock price is 5.57 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 34.28 billion yuan [3] Financial Highlights - In H1 2025, net interest income rose by 13.29% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in credit issuance and a recovery in net interest margin [6] - The bank's loan balance increased by 13.77% and total deposits grew by 12.54% year-on-year [6] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 133.77 billion yuan, 146.11 billion yuan, and 162.54 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.05%, 9.23%, and 11.25% respectively [7][8] - Net profit projections for the same period are 58.76 billion yuan, 69.79 billion yuan, and 78.95 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.83%, 18.78%, and 13.12% respectively [7][8]

齐鲁银行披露2025 年半年报，2025H1 营收、PPOP、归母利润同比增速分别为5.76%、6.00%、 16.48%，较25Q1 分别变动+1.04pct、+1.64pct、+0.02pct，公司前期公布了业绩快报（见《存贷高增， 资产质量继续改善》），市场对业绩双位数高增已有预期。从累计业绩驱动看，25H1 规模扩张、拨备 计提下降和有效税率下降形成主要正贡献；其他非息对业绩贡献为负。单季度边际来看，净息差对业绩 贡献明显提升，但其他非息业绩拖累加大。 核心观点： 亮点：（1）资负扩表继续提速。资产端，25Q2 末总资产同比增长16.02%，增速环比回升1.37pct，其 中贷款同比增长13.71%，增速环比回升1.11pct，个人贷款增长偏弱，按揭贷款规模压降较多。对公贷 款25Q2 末增速进一步提升至20.62%，基建、批发零售、制造业贷款增速均实现显著增长。另外，公司 投资类资产25Q2 末同比增长18.07%，Q2 主要增量来自AC，OCI 增量环比下降。 负债端，25Q2 末总负债同比增长16.17%，增速环比提升1.18pct，其中存款同比增长12.54%，增速环比 有所回落，公司加大了存 ...