新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-26 市场分析 2026-02-25日沪镍主力合约2605开于139000元/吨，收于141250元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化2.32%，当日成交量为 221614（+88557）手，持仓量为38264（37428）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约强势收涨，日内先抑后扬，资金与情绪共振推升价格。隔夜LME镍大涨3.64%至 17,915 美元/吨，叠加全球有色金属板块普涨，提振国内沪镍多头信心。今日国内商品市场有色全线飘红，沪镍跟随板块 走强，资金流入明显。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，节后镍矿市场交投氛围逐步恢复。印尼市场因基准价调整小幅回调，但进口菲律宾 矿价格持续走高；菲律宾矿山报价延续涨势，国内市场则暂以观望为主。 现货方面：日内镍价继续走高，精炼镍现货成交整体转冷。沪镍主力合约更换至2605合约，但贸易商多数仍使用 沪镍2603作为报价合约，各品牌精炼镍现货升贴水整体持稳，金川资源现货升水继续回落。其中金川镍升水变化-350 元/吨至8550元/吨，进口镍升水变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为53177 （1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to be adjusted strongly, with attention paid to the MA5 support, in the range of 14,200 - 15,000 yuan/ton. On the raw material side, the rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade have tightened the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants, and the planned reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia next year will bring production cut pressure to ferronickel production. On the supply side, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, with supply pressure still existing. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing. The market procurement willingness is not high, but the social inventory of stainless steel in the country maintains a seasonal slight decline due to limited arrivals. Technically, the position increases and the price is strong, with a strong long - position atmosphere [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 14,305 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts is 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,631 lots, an increase of 170 lots; the position of the main contract is 141,891 lots, an increase of 2,178 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 46,118 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of stainless steel is 295 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 145,900 yuan/ton, down 3,450 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 538,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The leaders of China and Canada issued a joint statement. Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the import of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles, with the tax rate reduced from 100% to 6.1%. - Trump said that from February 1st, tariffs will be imposed on eight European countries until "completely acquiring Greenland"; many EU countries are considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to Europe; Canada is considering sending troops to Greenland. - The hottest candidate for the Fed Chairman has changed. Trump hopes that Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor; reports say that Riddell of BlackRock has a rising voice in the campaign for the Fed Chairman, and he had a smooth meeting with Trump on Thursday [2].

Core Viewpoint - Stainless steel prices have seen a slight increase this week, but demand remains weak, leading to concerns about the market's ability to absorb supply pressure. The industry anticipates continued price fluctuations and is closely monitoring macroeconomic policies and production plans from steel mills [3][5]. Stainless Steel Market Analysis - Stainless steel futures prices rebounded slightly this week, with the main contract closing at 12,500, reflecting a 1.09% increase. However, trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - The current market is characterized by weak demand, primarily driven by essential purchases, as the overall consumption power is insufficient to support prices. The inventory levels remain high, and the market is experiencing mixed performance in transactions [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The stainless steel spot price increased by 50 yuan this week, but the market is still in a traditional off-season with declining downstream demand. Traders are under pressure to reduce prices for cash flow as year-end approaches [4][5]. - The macroeconomic environment has seen many monetary policies introduced, but fiscal policy implementation has been slow, limiting the stimulus effect on the real economy. The supply side is expected to ease as steel mills increase maintenance in December, potentially reducing supply pressure [4][5]. Inventory and Production Insights - The registered warehouse inventory for stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,500 tons to 61,619 tons this week, indicating ongoing inventory reduction. However, the market's ability to digest inventory remains a concern [4][5].

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on July 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range, with increased trading volume and open interest, and LME nickel fell 1.51%. The spot market improved, and the basis premium widened. The nickel iron fundamentals are loose, market sentiment cooled, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - For stainless steel, on July 30, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range, trading volume increased, and open interest decreased. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium remained unchanged. The current macro - sentiment has a large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the price needs time to return to the fundamentals, and it is expected to follow macro fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Market Data**: On July 30, the closing price of the Shanghai futures near - month nickel contract was 121,620 yuan/ton (-100), the trading volume was 133,758 lots (+33,388), and the open interest was 91,177 lots (+1,458). The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 15,500 dollars/ton (-60) [2]. - **Supply Side**: Nickel ore prices were flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories decreased. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, domestic production decreased in July, Indonesian production decreased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits increased [2]. - **Demand Side**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories decreased, LME inventories increased, social inventories decreased, and bonded - area inventories remained unchanged [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Market Data**: On July 30, the closing price of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures near - month contract was 12,920 yuan/ton (+10), the trading volume was 153,403 lots (+14,642), and the open interest was 102,650 lots (-620) [2]. - **Supply Side**: Stainless - steel production decreased in July [2]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochromium prices were flat [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 63,850 tons (-17,800) [2]. Other Information - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and governors Farrer and Powell voted against and advocated for a rate cut [2].