Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report Core Views - The supply of nickel ore is expected to remain contracted due to Indonesian policies and the rainy season, and with macro - factors, nickel prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillatory state, but are still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, so the recommended strategy is range - bound operation [4]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory state due to macro - level interest rate cut expectations and cost - side nickel price support, but is also suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, and the recommended strategy is range - bound operation [7]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On February 26, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2605 opened at 141,000 yuan/ton and closed at 141,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 368,199 (+146,585) lots, and the open interest was 205,915 (+17,485) lots [1]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract showed a trend of oscillating lower and closing slightly down. Although domestic and foreign nickel inventories continued to increase, suppressing prices, the reduction policy of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and the overnight rise of LME nickel provided strong bottom support [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market continued to be strong. The tender price of Eramen Mine's 1.3% grade in the Philippines was set at a high of $51 - 52 per wet ton, and the bullish sentiment continued to heat up. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia was at a high level, and the market was bullish. The mine's offer in the Philippines remained firm, with the latest tender price of Eramen Mine's 1.3% grade starting at FOB $52 per wet ton. The CIF price of Ni:1.4% grade shipped to Indonesia rose to $67 - 69 per wet ton, an increase of $4 - 5. In Indonesia, the supply shortage in the domestic market intensified, and the local nickel ore supply remained tight [2]. Spot - The nickel price fell slightly during the day, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. Traders mostly changed the quotation contract to the Shanghai nickel 2604 contract, and the spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel decreased due to the change of contract and make - up of the month - end difference. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 400 yuan/ton to 8,150 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 53,158 (-19) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 289,506 (+1,698) tons [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Supply - side nickel ore is expected to remain contracted, and nickel prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillatory state, but are still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [4]. - Unilateral: Range - bound operation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On February 26, 2026, the stainless steel main contract 2604 opened at 14,220 yuan/ton and closed at 14,265 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 103,479 (+1,063) lots, and the open interest was 77,985 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The stainless steel main contract showed a trend of oscillating stronger and closing slightly up. It was mainly supported by the cost side due to the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, and was also benefited from the strengthening of LME nickel, the increase of nickel ore premiums, and the initial recovery of downstream demand. However, high domestic stainless steel inventory, long - position liquidation, slow downstream resumption of work, and light spot trading restricted the upside space of prices, resulting in an oscillatory and slightly stronger market [5]. Spot - Driven by the strength of the futures market, market confidence increased, and spot quotes rose, but trading volume decreased compared with the previous two days. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,400 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,400 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 155 to 355 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan per nickel point to 1,077.5 yuan per nickel point [6]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Due to macro - level interest rate cut expectations and cost - side nickel price support, stainless steel is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillatory state, but is still suppressed by high inventory and weak demand. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [7]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7]

Core Insights - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, warned that several nickel smelters in Indonesia may halt production if nickel ore supply remains tight [1][2] - Indonesia, holding about 45% of the world's nickel reserves, is facing a supply-demand imbalance as domestic nickel ore supply has not kept pace with the rapid expansion of smelting facilities [1][2] - The country is projected to import over 10.4 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024, with expectations to increase to approximately 15 million tons in 2025 [1] - The nickel price may surge due to tight supply, leading to high production costs and potential shutdowns of smelting plants, which could also hinder investments in Indonesia's battery and electric vehicle sectors [1] - The nickel export ban implemented in 2020 has attracted investments in Indonesia's downstream nickel industry, with smelting capacity expected to reach 1.8 million tons of secondary nickel and about 395,000 tons of primary nickel by 2024 [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia currently holds over 60% of the global nickel market share, becoming a significant player in the stainless steel and battery materials sectors [2] - The government has shortened the effective period of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply amid increasing demand from smelting plants [2] - The imbalance between mineral supply and industrial demand is worsening due to the rapid expansion of smelting facilities and the shortened planning cycle for mining operations [2] - To alleviate the tight nickel ore supply, Arif urged the Indonesian government to prioritize the approval of RKAB applications for mines associated with smelting plants and to enhance exploration efforts and mining technology capabilities [2] - A solid upstream planning is essential to avoid the absurd situation of relying on imported nickel ore, ensuring that local industries in this resource-rich country do not face raw material shortages [2]

Market Overview - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak trading sentiment, with end-user purchases primarily driven by necessity, and traders reporting orders mainly for small to medium-sized replenishments [3] - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% [3] Price Trends - As of June 4, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled steel is 13,100 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous day, while the price in Foshan is 13,050 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [1] - The domestic nickel iron market is stable, with prices around 960-970 CNY/nickel (including tax) [1] Supply and Production - In May, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.4899 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% but a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] Inventory Levels - Social inventory data shows a weekly decline, with Wuxi and Foshan 300 series social inventory at 510,800 tons, down 20,200 tons week-on-week [2] - As of June 4, stainless steel futures inventory is 124,391 tons, a decrease of 10,220 tons week-on-week [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - The nickel ore market in the Philippines is facing shipment delays due to rainfall, with no transactions finalized yet [1] - Indonesian nickel ore domestic benchmark prices have decreased by approximately $0.02, with supply remaining tight due to the rainy season [1][3] Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand balance remains under pressure, with expectations of weak fluctuations in the market, and the main trading range is anticipated to be between 12,600 and 13,200 CNY [4]