Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, the oversupply situation in the stainless - steel market continued, with weak market confidence. Traders and end - users mostly made purchases on demand, lacking the willingness to stock up actively, resulting in dull overall transactions. On the demand side, the real - estate market slump dragged down stainless - steel consumption in construction, decoration, household cookware, etc., leading to slow inventory depletion and a higher - than - usual inventory level, indicating insufficient end - user digestion capacity. On the cost side, abundant raw material imports from Indonesia and other places caused the nickel - iron price to decline, squeezing iron - mill profit margins and weakening cost support for stainless steel. Overall, under the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and falling costs, stainless - steel prices are expected to continue their downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week. In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year. In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month, and the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about 10 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 32); the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about 210 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 82). The trading volume was 244,050 lots, up 4.01% week - on - week [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was - 80 (+ 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 145 (+ 45) [23]. 3. Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year [27]. - In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month; the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month [30]. - In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, up 2.33% month - on - month; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month [33]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, down 21.54% month - on - month and 9.71% year - on - year; the cumulative net export volume from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 4. Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year [40]. - In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2% [43]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, down 16.30% month - on - month and unchanged year - on - year; the automobile sales volume was 3.3221 million units, up 2.97% month - on - month and 8.82% year - on - year [46]. 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week [50]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week [53]. 6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, down 23.50% month - on - month and up 11.81% year - on - year. The current nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 56.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.9976 million wet tons, down 0.64% week - on - week [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the chromium - ore quotation was 53 yuan per dry ton, down 1.5 yuan per dry ton week - on - week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan per 50 - base ton, down 100 yuan per 50 - base ton week - on - week. In October, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 825,000 tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line was - 887 yuan/ton, and the profit margin was - 6.55% [66].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a downward adjustment, with prices declining and a cautious market sentiment prevailing [1][4]. Price Trends - As of November 6, the price of Tai Steel 304 cold rolled sheet in Wuxi is between 13,450-13,550 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.46%, and down 5.92% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average price of Tai Steel 304 cold rolled sheet this week is 13,620 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous week, a decline of 0.51% [1][2]. - The price of Hongwang 304 cold rolled sheet 2mm in Wuxi is between 12,700-12,800 CNY/ton, also down 200 CNY/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.54%, and down 6.59% year-on-year [1][2]. Market Drivers - The stainless steel futures market is primarily experiencing a downward trend, with macroeconomic sentiment being cautious, leading to significant pressure on both raw material and finished product prices [4][6]. - Social inventory levels have slightly increased due to demand falling short of expectations, and market participants are adopting a risk-averse stance, leading to some price increases in 201 products [4][6]. Market Outlook - The short-term market supply and demand situation remains unsatisfactory, with transaction volumes struggling to break through effectively [5][6]. - The expectation of reduced production in November is mainly concentrated in the 200 series, while the 300 and 400 series markets have limited reduction expectations, indicating ongoing supply-demand conflicts [5][6]. - Cost support is gradually becoming more evident, limiting further price declines in finished products, with the market likely to stabilize and await a rebound [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by Indonesia's industrial policies, global trade tensions, and raw material prices, with current prices stabilizing but facing downward pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In Q1, Indonesia's industrial policies positively impacted the stainless steel market, with prices peaking at 13,800 CNY/ton [1] - Following the implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, stainless steel futures dropped significantly, reaching a low of below 12,600 CNY/ton [1] - As global trade tensions eased, nickel-iron prices continued to decline, leading to a lack of upward momentum for stainless steel prices [1] Group 2: Nickel Supply and Pricing - The current supply of Indonesian nickel ore remains tight, with domestic prices for 1.6%-1.8% grade nickel ore stabilizing around 60 USD/wet ton [1] - If the Indonesian government reduces nickel ore production quotas, it could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in Q3, potentially benefiting stainless steel prices [1] - Nickel raw material costs account for approximately 61% of the cost structure for the mainstream 300 series stainless steel, indicating significant sensitivity to nickel price changes [1] Group 3: Nickel Iron and Chromium Prices - Nickel iron prices have seen a decline from 1,030 CNY/nickel at the end of March to 940 CNY/nickel, but recently rebounded to around 970 CNY/nickel, providing some cost support for stainless steel [2] - High-carbon ferrochrome prices are under pressure due to the resumption of production at ferrochrome plants and reduced output from some stainless steel manufacturers, with costs in southern and northern regions reported at 8,561 CNY/50 base tons and 8,362 CNY/50 base tons, respectively [2] Group 4: Production and Inventory - In May, domestic stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4899 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.36% but a year-on-year increase of 5.76% [2] - Recent production cuts from stainless steel manufacturers, such as a three-month shutdown at Indonesia's Qingshan Steel and a planned 10-15 day shutdown at a steel plant in East China, have had limited impact on the futures market due to high overall supply levels [2] Group 5: Demand and Market Outlook - The second quarter is traditionally a slow season for stainless steel demand, with the real estate market showing weak recovery indicators [3] - Export challenges due to tariffs and new regulations are expected to limit improvements in stainless steel demand [3] - Social inventory of stainless steel has been accumulating, with a reported increase of 0.85% to 1.1177 million tons in major markets [3] - Overall, while production cuts and rising nickel iron prices provide some support, weak demand and slow inventory digestion are likely to keep stainless steel prices in a range of 12,600 to 13,200 CNY/ton in the short term [3]