Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 14, the Director - General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia stated that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the mine supply is expected to remain tight. Market optimism has risen, and stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. In the short term, against the backdrop of tight supply, continuous decline in inventory, and significant cost support, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and prices may show a high - level oscillation pattern, with the reference range for the main contract being 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 927,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [20] - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 325 yuan (- 24) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 125 yuan (+ 6) over the main contract. The position on the disk was 261,387 lots, a week - on - week increase of 15.20% [23] - In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at 5 (+ 90), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 10 (+ 130) [26] 3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [31] - According to the sample statistics of MYSTEEL, in December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [34] - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [37] - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; from January to November, the cumulative net export volume was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [40] 4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [45] - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [48] - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; in November, the automobile sales volume was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [51] 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 883,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13%. It is expected that the inventory will be slightly reduced this week, with an estimated value of 860,000 tons; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons [56] - Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [59] 6. Cost Side - According to WIND data, in November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; currently, the quotation of nickel ore with a Ni content of 1.5% is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [64] - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [67] - Last week, the quotation of chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan/dry ton; the quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in December was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [70] - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is 797 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 5.88% [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for nickel is "neutral", while the core view is "bullish". Specific aspects have different ratings: nickel ore price is "neutral", Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore is "bullish", freight is "neutral", refined nickel production is "bearish", refined nickel inventory (SMM) is "bearish", domestic NPI price is "bullish", nickel iron production is "bullish", nickel sulfate production is "bullish", stainless steel production schedule is "bullish", stainless steel social inventory is "bullish", and stainless steel cost is "bullish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current market focus has shifted to the RKAB quota approval in 2026, and the Indonesian Mining Association expects the relevant process to be completed within the next three months. Given the flexibility in policy implementation, there is a need to be vigilant about the deviation between the actual implementation of the quota and market expectations. Currently, nickel prices are supported by supply - side policy constraints and are expected to temporarily break away from the current pressure. However, as speculative funds drive the price to an overly optimistic range, nickel prices may be verified by the fundamentals [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News Update - Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.'s 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project was officially put into operation on December 31, 2025 [7] - Due to the non - approval of the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk has suspended its nickel ore mining activities [7] - On December 26, 2025, Shengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. announced the termination of its investment in the 40,000 - ton high - grade nickel matte project in Indonesia [7] - The Indonesian Forest Law Enforcement Task Force (PKH) will fine 71 palm oil plantations and mining companies that violated forest area use as of December 8, 2025, including PT Weda Bay Nickel [7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the revised version will be announced in January or February [7] - The Indonesian government plans to cut the nickel ore mining quota in 2026, with the target set at about 250 million tons [7] 3.2 Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2602 opened at 126,700 yuan/ton, closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 135,570 yuan/ton and a low of 124,180 yuan/ton, up 4.81% for the week [9] - The main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton, closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,200 yuan/ton and a low of 12,840 yuan/ton, up 1.31% for the week [78] 3.3 Price Changes - As of January 5, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 30 yuan/nickel point to 930 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week increase of 3.33% [3][30] - As of January 5, the price of electrolytic nickel spot increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 138,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.52% [16] - As of January 5, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 8,450 yuan/ton to 141,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.34%, and the premium increased by 300 to 7,400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the price of imported nickel increased by 8,150 yuan/ton to 134,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.44%, and the premium remained flat at 400 yuan/ton [17] - As of January 5, the LME nickel price increased by 1,530 US dollars/ton to 17,290 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71% [21] - As of January 6, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore remained flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 2, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained flat at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week [36] - As of January 6, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 233 yuan/ton to 13,086 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [88] 3.4 Supply and Demand - According to the monthly balance sheet of primary nickel in China, from May 2025 to May 2026, the total supply and demand of nickel are in a state of balance, with a supply surplus [4] - As of December 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.56 million tons to 3.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.37% [3][48] - As of December 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly output decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3][62] - As of December 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 226,000 tons to 3.2671 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09% [3][81] - As of January 2, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 27,800 tons to 977,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.76% [3][84] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 6, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 878 tons to 39,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28%, and LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 360 tons to 255,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [52] - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including SHFE) increased by 556 tons to 58,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.95% [3][52] - As of December 31, nickel ore port inventory decreased by 120,000 tons to 8.69 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.36% [39] 3.6 Production Cost - As of December 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel increased by 143 US dollars/ton to 13,351 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [58] - As of December 2025, the production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel were 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [58] - As of January 6, the production cash cost of RKEF in Fujian decreased by 0.57 yuan/nickel point to 940.34 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 3.31 percentage points to - 0.49% [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the high inventory restricts the rebound strength of nickel prices. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the production of pure nickel will significantly decline from November to December. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options at resistance levels [6]. - For stainless steel, the overall trading atmosphere is still weak, with terminal demand in the off - season. The price is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The strategy is to sell on rebounds for single - side trading and to wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 308,000 tons. LME inventory is 254,000 tons, increasing by 2,082 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 39,800 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 52,000 tons, decreasing by 855 tons month - on - month [12]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period [17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand of Refined Nickel - **Supply**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of refined nickel increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. The net import was 47,200 tons, compared with a net export of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, it turned to net export. The supply from January to October was 383,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54%. It is expected that the total output in November will remain high at 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month [25]. - **Demand**: From January to October, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will be more obvious. In October, the downstream demand for nickel fell below the 50 boom - bust line [29]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore is stable but under great pressure. The willingness of Philippine nickel mines to hold prices is strong, but the high - nickel iron market has limited ability to absorb nickel ore, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The premium of domestic - trade nickel ore in November was flat month - on - month [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increased, and the price was under pressure. The production of China + Indonesia's NPI from January to October showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory of NPI in China also increased [34][36]. - **Chromium Series**: The price of chromium series weakened. The price of chrome ore has been declining continuously. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in December 2025 decreased month - on - month [38]. - **Cost Inversion of Cold - Rolled Products**: The prices of various raw materials such as nickel ore, high - nickel iron, and chromium series showed a downward trend from November 17th to 21st [43]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to October, the combined stainless - steel crude - steel output of China and Indonesia increased by 5% year - on - year. In November, the output decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year, exports remained flat year - on - year, and net exports increased by 14% year - on - year [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate and provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to September reached 28%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a year - on - year increase of 20%. From January to October, the sales were 12.911 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The power cell production also increased. However, the off - season is coming, and a decline in the power sector is likely [61]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year. US sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year, and European sales increased by 28.5% year - on - year. China's new - energy vehicle exports from January to October increased by 87% year - on - year [68]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to October, the cumulative output of nickel sulfate decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The output of ternary precursors decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons, and the output of ternary cathode materials increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons [70]. - **Raw Materials**: The output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons, and the output of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices has raised the cost of MHP, but the good demand for nickel sulfate has stimulated the recovery of intermediate product output [74]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Market - There is a significant domestic surplus of pure nickel due to a large increase in imports [75].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a downward adjustment, with prices declining and a cautious market sentiment prevailing [1][4]. Price Trends - As of November 6, the price of Tai Steel 304 cold rolled sheet in Wuxi is between 13,450-13,550 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.46%, and down 5.92% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average price of Tai Steel 304 cold rolled sheet this week is 13,620 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous week, a decline of 0.51% [1][2]. - The price of Hongwang 304 cold rolled sheet 2mm in Wuxi is between 12,700-12,800 CNY/ton, also down 200 CNY/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.54%, and down 6.59% year-on-year [1][2]. Market Drivers - The stainless steel futures market is primarily experiencing a downward trend, with macroeconomic sentiment being cautious, leading to significant pressure on both raw material and finished product prices [4][6]. - Social inventory levels have slightly increased due to demand falling short of expectations, and market participants are adopting a risk-averse stance, leading to some price increases in 201 products [4][6]. Market Outlook - The short-term market supply and demand situation remains unsatisfactory, with transaction volumes struggling to break through effectively [5][6]. - The expectation of reduced production in November is mainly concentrated in the 200 series, while the 300 and 400 series markets have limited reduction expectations, indicating ongoing supply-demand conflicts [5][6]. - Cost support is gradually becoming more evident, limiting further price declines in finished products, with the market likely to stabilize and await a rebound [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed situation with stable prices but weak demand, leading to a cautious outlook for the near term [3]. Pricing - As of June 30, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 12,650 CNY/ton, with Wuxi seeing a daily decrease of 50 CNY/ton, while Foshan remains unchanged [1]. - The nickel iron price has decreased to 910 CNY/nickel (including tax) in a major steel mill in South China, with traders adjusting their quotes down to 910-920 CNY/nickel [1]. Raw Materials - The price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines is trading at FOB 37-38 USD, affected by rainy weather which has slowed shipping efficiency [1]. - The domestic benchmark price for Indonesian nickel ore is expected to drop by 0.5-0.8 USD in July, with domestic premiums anticipated to decrease by 2 USD to +24-25 USD [1]. Supply - According to Mysteel, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.3623 million tons for June, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [1]. - The production of the 300 series is expected to be 1.7912 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [1]. Inventory - As of June 27, the social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 532,700 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - The stainless steel futures inventory is reported at 112,140 tons as of June 30, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1,763 tons [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is showing a strong oscillation in prices, with some traders in East and South China slightly increasing their purchase prices due to the strong futures market [3]. - The overall sentiment in the market is improving, but the fundamental conditions remain weak, with slow demand recovery and high stainless steel production levels [3]. Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to operate within a weak range, with a reference range of 12,300-13,000 CNY [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Macro利好推动短期反弹，但基本面未实质改善，高供应与需求疲软制约价格上行空间，预计震荡承压运行为主 [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 View Summary - Macro利好推动短期反弹，但基本面未实质改善，高供应与需求疲软制约价格上行空间，预计震荡承压运行为主 [12] 3.2 Fundamental - Raw Materials Nickel Iron - In April this year, China's nickel iron production decreased slightly, while Indonesia's nickel iron production rebounded, with overall supply increasing. On May 16, the NPI price was 955 yuan per nickel, the same as last week's price [16] Scrap Stainless Steel - On May 16, the price of scrap stainless steel 304 was 9,450 yuan per ton, a 2.16% increase from last week's price [19] Chromium Iron - Chromium iron production continued to rebound. In April this year, chromium iron production was 698,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.82%. On May 16, the price of high - carbon chromium iron was 8,200 yuan per 50 - base ton, a 1.20% decrease from last week [22] 3.3 Fundamental - Supply and Demand Supply - According to Mysteel data, the stainless steel production in April was 3.5025 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%, and the planned production in May was 3.4899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.36%. From the current production plan data, the reduction occurred in the 300 - series [28] Demand - From the data, the apparent demand for stainless steel in March rebounded significantly compared to February [28] 3.4 Fundamental - Price - This week, the spot price of stainless steel rose slightly. On May 16, the spot price was 13,370 yuan per ton, a 1.13% increase from last week [43] 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - As of May 16, 2025, Mysteel data showed that the stainless steel social inventory (78 samples) was about 1.0584 million tons, of which the 300 - series inventory was about 683,200 tons [36]