1月6日，中国商务部发布公告，宣布加强对日本两用物项出口管制，禁止所有两用物项向日本军事用 户、军事用途以及一切有助于提升日本军事实力的其他最终用户用途出口。 公告还显示，任何国家和地区的组织和个人，违反上述规定，将原产于中华人民共和国的相关两用物项 转移或提供给日本的组织和个人，将依法追究法律责任。 此举被广泛视为对日本首相高市早苗此前涉台错误言论的直接反制。 上海市日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷在接受《国际金融报》记者采访 时指出，中国商务部宣布对日本加强军民两用物资出口管制，此前在2024年对美国也曾采取过类似措 施，相关举措预计将对日本的经济和产业带来一定冲击，其中汽车、半导体和电子等产业将受到影响。 从中长期来看，将对日本军工装备产能的扩张和发展形成约束。 反制合理合法 所谓两用物项，是指既有民事用途，又有军事用途或者有助于提升军事潜力的货物、技术和服务，特别 是可以用于设计、开发、生产或者使用大规模杀伤性武器及其运载工具，包括相关的技术资料等数据。 两用物项管制涵盖范围广泛，根据中国商务部和海关总署公布的2026年度《两用物项和技术进出口许可 证管理目录》，管制清单多达上 ...

这项禁令的深远影响已经在东亚地缘格局上显现。过去十年，日本通过民用技术军用化策略，将大量中国产两用物项转化到防卫领域。从陆上自卫队装 甲车使用的高强钢，到航空自卫队战机的涡轮叶片涂层，中国材料和技术的渗透率达38%。如今，这条隐形补给线被切断，日本不得不重新评估其防卫 装备转移三原则的可行性。 公告特别强调，禁止通过第三方转移来规避禁令，这意味着日本若试图通过韩国或东南亚国家进行技术中转的路径也被堵 死。就像精密机床上的纳米级轴承，这些看似微小的限制可能引发整个军工系统的连锁反应。日本防卫产业协会的内部报告显示，若无法获得中国产超 高纯电子特气，其导弹制导芯片的良品率可能骤降60%。 从战略层面看，这项管制正在重塑东亚军事技术生态。中国掌握从稀土分离到碳纤维生产的完 整产业链，而日本在高端制造领域的技术优势必须依赖特定原材料。现代军工体系存在木桶效应，最短板决定整体水平。当禁令持续发酵，日本可能面 临军事技术升级的玻璃天花板。 商务部公告中提到的有助于提升军事实力构建了一个动态管制的法律框架。这意味着不仅现有装备受影响，日本推进的 次世代防卫力整备计划中的高超音速武器、量子雷达等前沿项目，也可能因材料断供而延 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is prepared for a prolonged trade conflict with the U.S. and has implemented new export control measures to strengthen its strategic position in the ongoing trade war [1][3][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Export Control Measures - The Ministry of Commerce of China has released a new version of the export control technology catalog, which includes a list of technologies that are prohibited from export and those that require licensing for export [1] - Key changes in the catalog focus on building environment control technology, battery technology, and non-ferrous metal metallurgy technology [1] Strategic Preparedness - China recognizes that the trade conflict with the U.S. is unavoidable and is taking steps to prepare for potential escalations, including the possibility of a second round of tariff wars initiated by the U.S. [6] - The recent changes in trade rules and diplomatic efforts are aimed at transforming China's position from passive to proactive in the face of external pressures [6][8] Diplomatic Efforts - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively engaging with various countries, including visits to Europe and Malaysia, to strengthen alliances and prepare for upcoming international meetings [6] - There is an acknowledgment that the European Union is not entirely unified and that China can adopt a strategy of "picking off" individual EU countries for cooperation [8] Importance of Strategic Assets - The export control measures are viewed as a "trump card" that can help China maintain a strong position in the face of Western pressures [8][9] - The ability to control core technologies and resources is seen as essential for China to remain competitive and resilient against U.S. attempts to impose tariffs and other trade barriers [3][9]