Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Huaneng International [3] Core Views - Huaneng International's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit of 14.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.52%, primarily due to declining fuel costs [6][12] - The company's coal power generation volume decreased, but profitability per kilowatt-hour improved, with coal power segment profits totaling 13.268 billion yuan in the first three quarters [6][12] - The renewable energy segment showed high growth, with solar power generation increasing by 45.41% year-on-year in Q3 [6][12] - The company is expected to benefit from lower coal prices and stable two-part electricity pricing, leading to continued high growth in coal power performance [6][12] Financial Data and Valuation - For 2025, the expected net profit is projected at 14.313 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 41% [6][12] - The current stock price is 7.73 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.5x for 2025, 8.0x for 2026, and 7.6x for 2027 [3][8] - The company reported total revenue of 1729.75 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.19% year-on-year [6][12] - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 478.71 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 3.54% year-on-year [6][12]

Core Insights - The recent capital increase project by State Grid Xinyuan Holdings Co., Ltd. raised 36.5 billion yuan, marking the largest cash fundraising scale in state-owned asset transactions and the biggest private equity investment in China since 2025 [1] - The investment involved major state-owned enterprises and financial institutions, indicating strong confidence in the pumped storage industry [1] - The establishment of the State Grid Pumped Storage Division reflects the company's commitment to advancing pumped storage technology and operations [1][4] Investment and Development - The pumped storage industry in China has transitioned from reliance on imported technology to domestic production, with significant advancements in equipment manufacturing [1][2] - State Grid Xinyuan was established in 2005, focusing on the development and operation of pumped storage power sources, achieving the first fully domestically produced pumped storage power station in 2012 [3] - The company has a history of significant capital increases, including a 2020 financing of 8.571 billion yuan, marking a major mixed-ownership reform [3] Industry Importance - Pumped storage is recognized as a crucial solution for balancing the volatility of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which do not align well with electricity demand [5][6] - The technology allows for energy storage during periods of low demand and generation, thus supporting the stability of the power system [6] Policy and Market Dynamics - The introduction of a two-part pricing mechanism for pumped storage has accelerated construction, with ambitious targets set for installed capacity by 2025 and 2030 [7] - However, concerns have arisen regarding the potential overbuilding of pumped storage facilities, which could lead to reduced utilization rates and increased costs for consumers [8] - New regulations aim to standardize project development and ensure that investments are aligned with actual demand and capacity needs [8][9] Future Directions - The State Grid plans to enhance the development of the next generation of pumped storage through collaborative innovation and tailored project designs [9] - The focus will be on integrating research, manufacturing, and operational capabilities to optimize the efficiency and effectiveness of pumped storage projects [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" investment rating for China Resources Power (00836.HK) [1][6]. Core Views - China Resources Power has a strong foundation in high-quality thermal power assets and robust operational management capabilities. The company is well-positioned in the renewable energy sector, with significant growth expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The planned spin-off of China Resources New Energy for A-share listing is anticipated to alleviate capital expenditure pressures [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s main revenue is projected to grow from HKD 103.33 billion in 2023 to HKD 121.67 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from HKD 19.75 billion in 2023 to HKD 22.47 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 5% [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from HKD 11.00 billion in 2023 to HKD 16.08 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of around 4% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from HKD 2.29 in 2023 to HKD 3.32 in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - China Resources Power is the only power platform under China Resources Group, with a diversified energy portfolio including thermal, wind, solar, and hydro power. As of the end of 2024, the company’s total installed capacity reached 72.43 GW, with thermal power accounting for 53%, wind power 33%, solar power 13%, and hydro power 1% [6][12]. - The company has a strong presence in economically developed regions, with 27.25% of its capacity located in Central China and 23.72% in Eastern China [12][13]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s thermal power plants are strategically located in regions with high electricity demand, leading to higher utilization hours compared to national averages. The average utilization hours for coal-fired power plants were 4,731 in 2022, 4,688 in 2023, and 4,625 in 2024 [6][22]. - The company has successfully reduced fuel costs, with the unit fuel cost decreasing from HKD 0.339/kWh in 2022 to HKD 0.276/kWh in 2024 [6][22]. Renewable Energy Growth - The company plans to add 10 GW of new renewable energy capacity and 6.09 GW of coal power by 2025, aiming for renewable energy to constitute 50% of its total installed capacity [6][22]. - The renewable energy segment has become a significant contributor to profits, with net profit from renewable sources reaching HKD 90.29 billion in 2024, accounting for 62.8% of the company’s total net profit [6][22]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 is projected to be HKD 534.33 billion, with 70.5% allocated to renewable energy projects [6][42]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain relatively low at 67% by the end of 2024, indicating a stable financial position [6][42]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio above 40% over the past five years, with a dividend of HKD 1.415 per share in 2023, reflecting a growth of 141.47% year-on-year [6][44].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of renewable energy enhances the demand for peak regulation in the power system, highlighting the cost and lifespan advantages of pumped storage investment. The implementation of a two-part electricity pricing system clarifies the cost recovery model, ensuring reasonable investment returns. The development of the electricity spot market and auxiliary service market is expected to further increase project revenues, making pumped storage power stations attractive to investors [1][19]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Pumped storage is currently the most mature energy storage technology, suitable for large-scale scheduling in the power system, providing peak shaving, frequency regulation, and energy storage functions, which facilitate the consumption of renewable energy [2]. - The historical development of pumped storage in China began in the 1960s, with significant growth in installed capacity during the 1990s and 2000s. However, the installed capacity growth during the "12th" and "13th" Five-Year Plans fell short of national targets due to low reasonable return rates under the previous electricity pricing mechanism [6][7]. Group 2: Development Opportunities - The increasing share of renewable energy in the power system has led to greater peak regulation pressure, while the construction of flexible regulation power sources has lagged. This has renewed attention on pumped storage as a key adjustment power source, with government departments proposing ambitious development targets and project lists [9]. - It is projected that by the end of 2025 and 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage will reach 73 GW and 155 GW, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.3% and 16.2% during the "14th" and "15th" Five-Year Plans [9]. Group 3: Investment Returns - The comprehensive implementation of a two-part electricity pricing system ensures that the initial investment and ongoing operational costs of pumped storage power stations can be recovered, providing stable returns for investors. The ongoing development of the electricity spot market and auxiliary service market is expected to enhance revenue through price differentials and participation in auxiliary services [19]. - Simulations indicate that as the additional profit per kWh from the spot market increases, the internal rate of return (IRR) for equity will rise significantly, demonstrating strong return potential [19][21]. Group 4: Industry Landscape - The early limitations in policy and profitability have resulted in the majority of existing pumped storage power stations being operated by State Grid and Southern Grid. Looking ahead, these entities are expected to lead the industry, with ambitious targets for installed capacity by 2030 [25][27]. - The central enterprises are becoming significant players in the pumped storage sector, with approximately 40% of the approved project scale during the "14th" Five-Year Plan, leveraging their financial strength and experience in large-scale power station development [25].