Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" investment rating for China Resources Power (00836.HK) [1][6]. Core Views - China Resources Power has a strong foundation in high-quality thermal power assets and robust operational management capabilities. The company is well-positioned in the renewable energy sector, with significant growth expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The planned spin-off of China Resources New Energy for A-share listing is anticipated to alleviate capital expenditure pressures [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s main revenue is projected to grow from HKD 103.33 billion in 2023 to HKD 121.67 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from HKD 19.75 billion in 2023 to HKD 22.47 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 5% [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from HKD 11.00 billion in 2023 to HKD 16.08 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of around 4% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from HKD 2.29 in 2023 to HKD 3.32 in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - China Resources Power is the only power platform under China Resources Group, with a diversified energy portfolio including thermal, wind, solar, and hydro power. As of the end of 2024, the company’s total installed capacity reached 72.43 GW, with thermal power accounting for 53%, wind power 33%, solar power 13%, and hydro power 1% [6][12]. - The company has a strong presence in economically developed regions, with 27.25% of its capacity located in Central China and 23.72% in Eastern China [12][13]. Operational Efficiency - The company’s thermal power plants are strategically located in regions with high electricity demand, leading to higher utilization hours compared to national averages. The average utilization hours for coal-fired power plants were 4,731 in 2022, 4,688 in 2023, and 4,625 in 2024 [6][22]. - The company has successfully reduced fuel costs, with the unit fuel cost decreasing from HKD 0.339/kWh in 2022 to HKD 0.276/kWh in 2024 [6][22]. Renewable Energy Growth - The company plans to add 10 GW of new renewable energy capacity and 6.09 GW of coal power by 2025, aiming for renewable energy to constitute 50% of its total installed capacity [6][22]. - The renewable energy segment has become a significant contributor to profits, with net profit from renewable sources reaching HKD 90.29 billion in 2024, accounting for 62.8% of the company’s total net profit [6][22]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 is projected to be HKD 534.33 billion, with 70.5% allocated to renewable energy projects [6][42]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain relatively low at 67% by the end of 2024, indicating a stable financial position [6][42]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio above 40% over the past five years, with a dividend of HKD 1.415 per share in 2023, reflecting a growth of 141.47% year-on-year [6][44].

文 ｜ 李想 荣浩翔 新能源快速成长提升电力系统调峰需求，抽水蓄能投资成本及寿命优势突出；两部制电价全面执行后，成本疏导模式基本清晰，合理投资回报率 将得到保障，叠加电力现货市场与辅助服务市场建设推进有望进一步增厚项目收益，抽水蓄能电站开发获投资方青睐；两网加速储备项目核准开 发，为行业中长期规划目标达成奠定基础，此外电力央企集团正积极加速资源获取，打造抽水蓄能业务作为新增长点。装机成长明确&回报保障 合理，行业步入快速增长周期。 ▍ 总体定位：适配新能源发展的灵活调节电源。 抽水蓄能作为目前技术最成熟的储能方式，具备储能容量大、使用寿命长的优势，适合应用于辅助电力系统进行大规模调度，发挥调峰、调 频、储能功能，配合风光机组运行，促进新能源消纳。在风光新能源加速发展背景下，抽水蓄能投资开发力度有望提升。 ▍ 发展机遇：电力系统加速转型，抽水蓄能迎来拐点。 | 功能类型 | 主要作用 | | --- | --- | | 调峰 | 用电高峰发电、用电低谷抽水填谷,改善其他发电机组运行条件,减少弃风弃光,保证电网 | | | 稳定运行 | | 调频 | 电网频率要求 50±0.2Hz,因此需要快速灵敏的机组调频,抽 ...