2025 年 08 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 经营性利润稳健增长， 未来三年分红比例拟提升至 60%以上 ——国电电力（600795）2025 年中报点评 最近一年走势 投资要点: | 相对沪深 | 表现 300 | | | | 2025/08/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | | 国电电力 | | 0.4% | 3.8% | -9.1% | | | 沪深 300 | | 6.3% | 11.9% | 32.1% | | | 市场数据 | 2025/08/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 4.79 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 4.07-6.02 | | 总市值（百万） | 85,432.62 | | 流通市值（百万） | 85,432.62 | | 总股本（万股） | 1,783,561.91 | | 流通股本（万股） | 1,783,561.91 | | 日均成交额（百万） | 615.20 | | 近一月换手（%） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 7.01 billion, 7.88 billion, and 8.67 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 12.1x, 10.8x, and 9.8x [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in non-recurring profit, with a 56.12% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, despite a 45.11% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders [4]. - The company has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 60% from 2025 to 2027, with a minimum cash dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, indicating strong confidence in its market value management [4]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue of 9.52% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 77.655 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 776.55 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 9.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.687 billion yuan, with a non-recurring profit of 3.410 billion yuan, reflecting a 45.11% decline [4]. - The gross margin, net margin, and non-recurring net margin for the first half of 2025 were 16.27%, 8.90%, and 4.39% respectively, showing a mixed performance compared to the previous year [4]. - The company’s financial expenses decreased by 10.5% year-on-year to 2.883 billion yuan, contributing to improved cash flow [4]. Segment Performance Summary - In terms of electricity generation, the company reported a decline in coal power generation by 7.5% and a significant increase in solar power generation by 122.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 29.5 yuan per megawatt-hour year-on-year, impacting revenue from coal and wind power [4]. - The net profit from coal power, hydropower, wind power, and solar power for the first half of 2025 was 4.51 billion, 1.21 billion, 0.69 billion, and 0.77 billion yuan respectively, with hydropower showing a substantial increase of 357% year-on-year [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a 24.26% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 9.26 billion yuan in H1 2025, despite a 5.70% decline in revenue [1]. - The profitability of coal power improved significantly, with a total profit of 7.31 billion yuan in H1, marking an 84% increase year-on-year [2]. - The renewable energy segment added 6.3 GW of wind and solar capacity, generating a total profit of 5.7 billion yuan, with solar power profit increasing by 46% [3]. - International operations in Singapore and Pakistan contributed a pre-tax profit of 1.8 billion yuan, enhancing overall performance [4]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 14 billion, 14.8 billion, and 15.8 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 8, 8, and 7 times [5]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 revenue was 112 billion yuan, down 5.70% year-on-year, while net profit was 9.26 billion yuan, up 24.26% [1]. - Coal-fired power generation saw a utilization rate of 1,839 hours, a decrease of 141 hours year-on-year, leading to a 7.06% drop in generation volume to 158.36 billion kWh [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 485.27 yuan/MWh, down 2.69% year-on-year, while coal procurement decreased by 10.70% to 87.14 million tons [2]. - New wind and solar installations totaled 6.3 GW, with wind generation increasing by 11.39% to 21.03 billion kWh and solar generation rising by 49.33% to 12.24 billion kWh [3]. - The company’s total assets reached 541.16 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.52% [7][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1120.32 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 92.62 billion yuan, an increase of 24.3% year-on-year [1]. - The significant growth in Q2 net profit by 50% year-on-year was primarily driven by a decrease in fuel costs and an expansion in renewable energy capacity [1][2]. - The company’s coal power generation showed a marginal improvement in growth rate, with a notable decrease in costs, enhancing profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company’s domestic power plants generated 2056.83 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.37% year-on-year, with coal power generation down by 7.06% [2]. - The total profit from coal power generation increased by 84% year-on-year, reaching 73.10 billion yuan [2]. Cost and Profitability - The average coal price for the first half of 2025 was 917.05 yuan/ton, down 9.23% year-on-year, which significantly buffered the impact of electricity prices on profitability [3]. - The profit per kWh from coal power generation improved to 0.046 yuan, an increase of 0.023 yuan year-on-year [3]. Renewable Energy Expansion - The company added 1.9 GW of wind power and 4.3 GW of solar power capacity in the first half of 2025, contributing to a total profit of 57.33 billion yuan from renewable energy, a year-on-year increase of 4.58 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to 122.93 billion yuan, 130.82 billion yuan, and 139.13 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The expected EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 0.89 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 9 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company continues to expand its green energy segment, showcasing a high dividend yield that reflects its investment value [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.944 billion yuan, up 14.04% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 7.337 billion yuan, down 9.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 12.82% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company completed a total power generation of 586.23 billion kWh, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, with coal power generation at 416.05 billion kWh, up 3.5% [1]. - The coal power segment's fuel cost was 8.931 billion yuan, with a corresponding cost per kWh of 0.278 yuan, a decrease of 0.019 yuan per kWh year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for coal power improved by 4.89 percentage points to 15.57% in 2024 [1]. Growth and Expansion - The company has made significant progress in its green energy projects, including the commissioning of a 600,000 kW offshore wind power project in Hainan and obtaining construction indicators for additional wind and solar projects [3]. - By the end of 2024, the installed capacity for wind and solar power reached 2.825 million kW and 2.441 million kW, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 18.36% and 14.53% [1]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.45 yuan per share in 2024, totaling 2.202 billion yuan, which represents 55.84% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [3]. - The current dividend yield stands at 5.1% as of April 30, 2025 [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 projects net profits of 4.024 billion yuan, 4.239 billion yuan, and 4.370 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 0.89 yuan [4]. - The report indicates a stable fundamental outlook for the company, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 11 for 2025 and 10 for 2026 and 2027 [4].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 26.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.14%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.66% to 1.930 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance amid a challenging market environment [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's Q1 2025 revenue decreased due to a relaxed supply-demand balance in electricity and a slight drop in electricity prices, with total electricity generation falling by 8.51% year-on-year to 51.384 billion kWh [1][2]. - The average on-grid electricity price in Q1 2025 was approximately 505.71 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 0.71% year-on-year, influenced by nationwide price adjustments [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 10.73% and a net profit margin of 8.52%, both showing year-on-year increases of 2.33 and 1.21 percentage points, respectively [3]. - Operating costs decreased by 16.32% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices, which positively impacted profitability [3]. Cash Flow and Asset Management - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 107.47% year-on-year, attributed to reduced fuel costs [4]. - A proposed acquisition of stakes in several companies is expected to enhance total assets by 18.37%, revenue by 25.07%, and net profit by 5.93%, significantly improving the company's asset scale and profitability [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.6 billion, 7.6 billion, and 8.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.91%, 14.89%, and 11.80% [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio for the stock is estimated to be 8.84, 7.69, and 6.88 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a strong investment opportunity [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 0.83, 0.90, and 0.93 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times based on the closing price on April 30 [4][6]. Core Views - The company has diversified its energy portfolio, including coal, gas, oil, nuclear, and renewable energy sources, which supports its performance. The total power generation in 2024 reached 491.24 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.84% [2][3]. - The company is actively developing large-scale projects, including a significant wind and solar project in Xinjiang and a 600,000 kW offshore wind project in Hainan, which are expected to contribute to future growth [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 29,619 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3,944 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.04% [5][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 73.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.11 billion yuan, down 12.82% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 72.47 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.64 billion yuan, down 30.54% year-on-year [1][2]. - The forecast for 2025 estimates total revenue of 30,310 million yuan, with a growth rate of 2.3%, and a net profit of 4,067 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.1% [5][8]. Operational Highlights - The company’s installed capacity reached 17,955 MW by the end of 2024, an increase of 5.95% year-on-year. The breakdown of power generation includes coal power at 405.72 billion kWh, gas power at 22.04 billion kWh, wind power at 54.17 billion kWh, and solar power at 31.35 billion kWh, with solar power showing a significant growth of 26.55% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average on-grid electricity price in 2024 was 479.29 yuan/MWh, with a slight decrease in Q1 2025 to 0.501 yuan/kWh [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 40.67 billion yuan in 2025, 44.03 billion yuan in 2026, and 45.60 billion yuan in 2027 [4][5].