Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business equipment investment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Cabinet Office revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (April 2025 to March 2026) down from 1.2% to 0.7% [2] - The reduction in GDP growth expectations is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which are expected to directly decrease Japan's exports to the U.S. and indirectly affect exports to other countries [2]

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Japanese Cabinet Office revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's exports [2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. is expected to have a direct effect, while reduced exports from other countries to the U.S. will indirectly affect Japan's exports of intermediate goods [2]

Economic Overview - The U.S. real GDP for the first quarter decreased at an annualized rate of 0.5%, which is worse than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first economic contraction in three years [1] - The decline was primarily due to an increase in imports and a decrease in government spending, despite growth in investment and consumer spending [1][4] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption showed the weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic, with growth revised down from an initial 1.7% to only 0.5% [6] - The contribution of personal consumption to GDP was only 0.31%, significantly lower than the previously reported 0.80% and 1.21% [7] Investment and Trade - Fixed investment contributed 1.31% to GDP, driven by strong investments in data centers [7] - The trade deficit negatively impacted GDP by approximately 4.76%, slightly better than previous estimates [7] Inflation and Price Indices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 3.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][13] - The overall domestic purchases price index increased by 3.4%, reflecting upward adjustments in inflation estimates [13] Future Projections - The next GDP estimate for the second quarter is expected to show a rebound in economic growth, with economists predicting a growth rate of 3% [12]

金十数据5月16日讯，凯投宏观亚太区负责人Marcel Thieliant表示，早些时候公布的日本第一季度GDP 数据弱于预期，意味着日本央行可能会等待更长时间才加息。"相对于我们的预测，主要令人失望的是 个人消费，与上季度持平。"由于美国的关税将拖累日本的出口增长，日本央行在上次会议上对经济前 景变得更加悲观的判断似乎是正确的。因此，"看起来越来越有可能的是，日本央行不会像我们目前预 测的那样，最早在7月份加息"。 凯投宏观：日本季度GDP疲软暗示日央行或推迟加息时间 ...