更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 国补落地及 2026 年消费趋势判断 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2025 年国补资金的来源是什么？ 2025 年国补资金主要来自于特别国债。中国目前的广义赤字率为10%,在全球范 围内已经属于较高水平。具体来说,2025年的政府债务总规模为14万亿人民币, 其中狭义赤字(包括国债和一般债)为 5.66 万亿,专项债为 4.4 万亿,特别国 债为 1.8万亿。此外,还有 2万亿用于化解地方政府债务的置换债,以及额外增 吗斤研报 争 狗 - 2025年财政政策灵活调整,特别国债发行时间较晚,一季度资金相对紧 . 张,依赖中央财政垫付。两重项目资金略多于去年,两新项目则稍微减少, 反映监管更注重项目投资,希望通过提前下达额度来稳定投资。 商品消费补贴通过带动销售增加税收,如增值税和企业所得税,但 2025 ● 年税收增速低于名义 GDP 增速,表明财政收入增长偏弱,存在一定压力。 政策制定更加谨慎,希望通过拉动销量、创收来实现更好的收支平衡,同 时避免出现负面效应。 汽车行业国补策略调整为高价高补、低价低补,刺激需求预计减少。2026 . 年内需或下滑 ...

2025年塞平均通胀率为3.8%，12月通胀率为2.8%，符合塞央行设定的3%±1.5%的目标区间。劳动 力市场继续保持良好发展态势，工资和生活水平不断提高，平均工资名义增长11.2%，实际增长7.1%。 失业率进一步下降，三季度失业率为8.2%。在外贸方面，据初步估计，尽管外部需求疲软，2025年塞 出口仍增长8%，这主要得益于汽车行业的出口。进口增长7.3%，主要归于原材料和设备的持续进口， 以及民众可支配收入增加带动消费品进口的增长。 （原标题：塞尔维亚2025年GDP增长2%） 塞尔维亚《政治报》12月31日报道，根据塞尔维亚国家统计局评估，2025年塞尔维亚GDP实际增长 率为2%。 分析显示，大多数服务业和工业活动均实现增长。服务业增长主要体现在零售业增长4.2%、餐饮 业增长1.5%、交通运输业增长4.7%。旅游业方面，游客过夜数较去年下降3.3%。工业生产总值增长 1.0%，其中采矿业增长4.4%，加工业增长1.2%。建筑业出现下滑，下降8.4%，能源行业则因干旱导致 水力储量下降，进而下降2%，农业受不利天气条件影响略微下降0.3%。 ...

格隆汇1月1日｜据韩国产业通商部1日发布的2025年进出口数据显示，韩国去年出口总额同比增长 3.8%，为7097亿美元，刷新2024年创下的历史最高纪录。据统计，半导体出口同比大增22.2%，达到 1734亿美元，继前年之后再次刷新历史峰值，推动整体出口增长；汽车出口增加1.7%，为720亿美元， 依然刷新最高纪录；生物医药出口增加7.9%，为163亿美元，连续两年保持增势；船舶、计算机、无线 通信设备、农副食品、化妆品、电气设备出口也均实现增长。相比之下，石油产品出口减少9.6%，为 455亿美元；石油化工产品减少11.4%，为425亿美元；钢铁减少9%，为303亿美元。 ...

调查还显示，进口预计同比增长2.4%，从而使12月贸易顺差达到100亿美元，高于前一个月修正后的 97.4亿美元顺差。 新华财经北京12月30日电在半导体需求旺盛的支撑下，韩国出口的强劲增长势头很可能在12月得以延 续。 据《华尔街日报》对11位经济学家的调查，中值预期显示，12月韩国对外出货量同比增长8.3%，略低 于11月的8.4%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ING高级经济学家Min Joo Kang表示："强劲的外部需求以及近期与美国达成的贸易协议，预计将继续支 撑制造业产出和出口的增长动能。" ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a strong market rating for the home appliance sector, emphasizing the shift in consumer behavior towards a more present-focused consumption mindset, driven by the new generation of consumers [1] - The report highlights the expected leadership of the new consumption sector in 2025, while traditional consumption sectors are anticipated to show lackluster performance [4] Macro Consumption Trends - The report notes a significant transformation in consumer attitudes, moving from a culture of saving to one of cautious spending and living in the moment, which is expected to create new investment opportunities [4][11] - It identifies a structural opportunity in consumption, with the main drivers shifting from broad-based recovery to specific demographic groups, particularly the elderly and single-person households [32] Global Economic Landscape - The report emphasizes the importance of global emerging markets, suggesting that Chinese companies are well-positioned to lead in new product categories with significant growth potential [4] - It points out that the export structure is evolving towards innovation-driven categories, enhancing resilience against geopolitical risks [4] Domestic Consumption Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic consumption is entering a phase of refinement, with strong companies benefiting from the changing consumption landscape [4] - It highlights the ongoing growth in the pet economy and health supplements, suggesting that companies with e-commerce capabilities will be favored [4] Export Opportunities - The report discusses the resilience of exports, noting a shift from reliance on developed markets to emerging markets, with significant growth in exports to countries like India and Indonesia [49] - It highlights the importance of diversifying export markets and supporting new business models such as cross-border e-commerce [49] Sector-Specific Insights - The report identifies specific sectors poised for growth, including cleaning appliances, which are expected to benefit from government subsidies and increasing consumer demand [53] - It suggests that the pet economy and health products will continue to thrive, driven by changing consumer preferences and increased awareness [4] Consumer Income and Spending - The report notes that while income growth is stabilizing across different income groups, the spending power of high-income households is expected to drive consumption growth [35] - It emphasizes the importance of asset conditions, particularly housing, in influencing consumer behavior and spending patterns [35] Rural Consumption Potential - The report highlights the growing consumption potential in rural areas, where income growth is outpacing urban areas, suggesting a shift in focus towards rural markets [39] - It notes that rural high-income groups are likely to lead in spending on services, healthcare, and entertainment [39]

声明表示，出口增长反映了以色列经济的韧性，以及在经历了多线作战的"战争状态"后，经济仍能复苏 和发展的能力。出口增长还反映了对人力资本的投资以及对新市场的拓展，这些都为以色列经济的持续 增长奠定了基础。 （文章来源：新华财经） 同时，声明说，由于主要目标市场依然疲软，预计商品出口将从2024年的603亿美元下降5.5%至约570 亿美元。 声明说，2025年以色列对亚洲的出口持续增长，增幅达3.5%，而对非洲、拉丁美洲和大洋洲的出口则 呈现温和增长。对欧盟国家的出口下降约11%，对美国的出口下降约4%。 新华财经耶路撒冷12月16日电（记者王卓伦冯国芮）以色列经济产业部16日发表声明说，预计2025年该 国出口额达到约1600亿美元，比2024年增长3%，接近2022年创下的1650亿美元的纪录。 根据声明，服务出口占出口总额的52%，预计将增长9%，达到1010亿美元，高于2024年的927亿美元。 增长主要由软件、研发等高科技服务带动，凸显了这一行业对经济稳定的贡献。 ...

12月15日，国家统计局公布11月份国民经济数据，预计全年实现5%的GDP增长目标几乎没有悬念。 日前，高盛、德意志银行等外资投行一致地上调了对中国GDP增速的预测，并预计2026年中国出口仍将实现5%—6%的稳健增长，房地产对GDP增长的负面影响减 弱，未来政策宽松力度或将加大。 不过分歧在于，政策宽松的方式和力度预测不同。高盛预计2026年央行将降息20个基点，并预计财政赤字与GDP之比将有所提升；瑞银预测央行将降息20个基点、 降准25个—50个基点，或将带动LPR和房贷利率进一步下调；德银更早的观点认为央行进一步降息的可能性较小，2026年财政赤字率维持在GDP的8.5%，特别国债 额度增至1.5万亿元。 出口增长超预期，外资上调中国GDP预测 12月15日，国家统计局公布11月份国民经济数据，前11个月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6%；服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%；社会消费品零售总额同比增长 4%；货物进出口总额同比增长3.6%，其中出口增长6.2%。 上一次国民经济数据出炉之后，高盛中国首席经济学家闪辉就认为，出口增长是2025年最大的超预期指标，我国全年实现5%的增长目标基本无虞。而考虑到中 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP growth target of 5% for the year is almost certain to be achieved, supported by strong economic indicators [1][3] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, predicting a steady export growth of 5%-6% through 2026, with a diminishing negative impact from the real estate sector on GDP growth [2][3] Export Performance - In the first eleven months, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2%, exceeding expectations [3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the growth in China's export volume will continue to rise by 5%-6% annually in the coming years, driven by an expanding global market share [3] Real Estate Sector Impact - The real estate market, while still weak, is expected to have a reduced direct negative impact on GDP growth, with the drag decreasing by approximately 0.5 percentage points annually in the coming years [3][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to reduce excess inventory in the real estate sector, which is seen as a necessary step for economic recovery [4][6] Policy Measures - The central economic work conference outlined key strategies for economic work in the coming year, focusing on increasing household income and promoting service consumption to boost domestic demand [6] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 8.5% of GDP in 2026, with special government bond issuance increasing to 1.5 trillion yuan [6][7] Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a consensus among various investment banks that the fiscal deficit rate will stabilize around 4% of GDP, although opinions differ on the likelihood and extent of interest rate cuts [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20 basis point interest rate cut, while UBS expects a combination of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [7] Currency Outlook - The strong export performance and a current account surplus of $600 billion (2.8% of GDP) are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi [8] - Deutsche Bank projects that the renminbi will appreciate against the US dollar, reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and further strengthening to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [8]

Group 1: Commercial Vehicles - The core conclusion for heavy trucks indicates that exports will surpass domestic sales in 2026, with a focus on leading exporters [2] - In 2025, the total wholesale volume for heavy trucks is expected to reach 1.143 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, with domestic sales at 814,000 units (+35.2%) and exports at 332,000 units (+14.3%) [11][12] - The penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is projected to rise to 30%-35% in 2026, with natural gas trucks also expected to gain market share [2][11] Group 2: Buses - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected growth of 3% for domestic sales and 30% for exports [3][22] - The key players in the bus industry, such as Yutong and King Long, are anticipated to benefit from the recovery in both domestic and overseas markets [3][22] - The overall profitability of the bus sector is expected to improve, driven by the recovery in demand and the performance of leading companies [23][39] Group 3: Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to grow by 31% [4][29] - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 830,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 50% increase compared to the previous year [4][29] - Leading motorcycle manufacturers, such as Chunfeng and Longxin, are expected to benefit from the continued growth in exports and large-displacement motorcycle sales [4][30]

（原标题：韩第62届贸易日：有望达成史上最大出口额） 据韩联社12月4日报道，产业通商部与贸协当日举行了第62届"贸易日"纪念仪式，1000余名贸易有 功人士及政府、相关机构人士出席，今年1月至11月，韩国累计出口额达6402亿美元，创2022年以来近 三年新高。韩国出口有望首次突破7000亿美元大关。出口连续6个月实现正增长，呈现"先抑后扬"的良 好态势。今年，韩国出口由半导体、汽车、船舶、生物等主力制造业凭借强大竞争力领跑。随着韩流在 全球扩散，K-食品、K-美妆等消费品以及军工产品也取得亮眼成绩，为出口增长助力。出口市场结构 也逐步拓展实现多元化。此外，今年第三季度，出口中小企业数量达8.9万家，创历史新高；中小企业 出口额达871亿美元，也创下历史最高纪录，出口基础不断扩大。纪念仪式上，598名个人和1689家企业 因对韩国出口作出贡献而受到表彰。 ...