Core Viewpoint - The China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) predicts a gradual warming of the economy in 2026, with GDP growth expected to rebound across multiple dimensions, including price levels and investment [1] Economic Growth - The report forecasts that the actual GDP growth will be in the range of 4.5% to 5% for the year, approaching the upper limit [1] - Both actual and nominal GDP growth rates are expected to rise, with nominal growth showing a more significant rebound [1] Price Levels - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to gradually recover to a moderate range, while the decline in Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to narrow, alleviating negative effects related to prices [1] Consumption Sector - The consumption market is projected to operate steadily in 2026, with a recovery in dining consumption and the emergence of new consumption formats driven by AI and robotics [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow at around 4% for the year [1] Investment Sector - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment recovering first and a significant reduction in the decline of real estate investment [1] - There will be a notable structural optimization combining "investment in physical assets" and "investment in human capital" such as education and healthcare [1] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that stabilizing prices should be a core policy focus in 2026, aiming to bring CPI closer to a target of 2% while controlling real estate supply to avoid negative impacts on consumption and investment [2] - The long-term trend of the RMB appreciating is seen as a necessary step for China to advance towards a high-income country, with policies needing to accommodate this trend [2] - A balance between "technological self-reliance" and "improving people's livelihoods" is emphasized, advocating for breakthroughs in AI and advanced manufacturing while enhancing social security measures [2]

2025年人民币外汇市场整体运行平稳，对美元汇率稳中有升。11月中旬以来，人民币升值加速，对美元汇率连续突破关键点 位，截至12月24日下午五点，在岸人民币对美元涨破7.02关口，离岸人民币对美元涨破7.01关口。今年以来，在岸人民币对美元累 计涨超3.8%，离岸人民币兑美元累计涨超4.4%。 中金公司研究部首席宏观分析师 张文朗：人民币近期走强，主要反映了中外投资者对中国经济和市场的信心，比如中国科技进 步提速。展望未来，中国经济韧性、科技持续进步，再加上美国继续降息，我认为人民币汇率可能还有上行空间。 兴业研究汇率首席研究员 郭嘉沂：国内经济今年稳步向好，股票市场震荡向上，从外资增配人民币资产来看，今年对于人民币 股票资产也是一个增持的态势。美联储还是在延续一个降息的周期，美元利率、汇率都有比较明显的下行，也给了人民币升值方向 的助力。 央视网消息：11月24日，中国人民银行公布的 人民币对美元中间价 调升52个基点，报7.0471，创近15个月新高。 兴业研究汇率首席研究员 郭嘉沂：（此前）待结汇盘一直是处于累积的一个高位，很多企业是有观望的态度，临近年末，此前 观望的企业进行了一个结汇的行为，进一步造 ...

Group 1: Immigration and Travel - The total number of inbound and outbound travelers at national ports reached 460 million from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [1] - Among the travelers, 220 million were mainland residents (up 15.4%), 180 million were residents from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan (up 11.2%), and 51.3 million were foreign visitors (up 27.8%) [1] - The number of visa-free foreign visitors reached 15.89 million, accounting for 62.1% of all foreign entrants, with a significant year-on-year increase of 52.1% [1][3] Group 2: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery business volume in China grew by 17.8% year-on-year in the first eight months, with a total of 1.399 billion items delivered [4] - The express delivery sector is expanding steadily, with companies enhancing operational capabilities through automation, such as the use of unmanned vehicles and automatic sorting machines [7] - There is a notable increase in the delivery of specialty agricultural products, with express companies providing dedicated teams for efficient sorting and packaging [7] Group 3: Charging Infrastructure - As of the end of August, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure exceeded 17 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 53.5% [10] - The average monthly increase in charging facilities since the second half of the year has been around 600,000 [10] - Private charging facilities dominate the market, with over 13 million units, which is more than three times the number of public charging facilities [10]

Group 1 - S&P Global Ratings has maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience and debt management effectiveness [1][3] - The Ministry of Finance expressed satisfaction with S&P's decision, highlighting the recognition of China's economic growth potential [3] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous estimate in April [3] Group 2 - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, indicating a stable economic foundation and strong resilience [4] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange emphasized that the long-term supportive conditions and fundamental trends for China's economy remain unchanged [4]

Group 1: Foreign Investment - In the first half of the year, 30,014 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [1] - The actual utilized foreign capital amounted to 423.23 billion RMB, with significant growth in investments from ASEAN (8.8%), Switzerland (68.6%), Japan (59.1%), and the UK (37.6%) [1] Group 2: Water Conservancy Investment - A total of 532.9 billion RMB was invested in water conservancy construction in the first half of the year, with 34,400 projects implemented and 18,800 new projects started [5] - Social capital participation in water conservancy construction reached 81.92 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [5] Group 3: Trade and Export Growth - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's import and export volume reached 4.38 trillion RMB in the first half of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [6][8] - Exports of "new three types" products increased by 28.7% [6] Group 4: Tourism and Inbound Travel - Since July 1, over 84,000 inbound travelers have been processed at Shanghai's cruise port, with inbound tourism increasing by 38.5% year-on-year, totaling 4.248 million visitors in the first half of the year [9] - The sales of tax refund goods for outbound tourists grew by 85% [9] Group 5: Infrastructure Development - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion RMB for the construction of five hydropower stations [11] Group 6: Trade Facilitation Activities - The Ministry of Commerce organized 11 trade matching events in the first half of the year, achieving an intended transaction amount of approximately 48 billion RMB, covering over ten industries including home appliances and medical equipment [15]