随着美元指数连续走弱，包括人民币在内的非美货币持续走强。 11月27日，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中最高升至7.0738，较前一交易日高点进一步走强，连续三个交易 日创下去年10月中旬以来的新高。 更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率在前一交易日创下一年多新高后11月27日进一步走 强，盘中最高升至7.06527。 在创下新高后，午后，人民币对美元汇率在在岸和离岸市场双双小幅走弱，跌破7.08。 兴业研究指出，人民币兑美元短线升破7.10，11月27日盘中最低触达7.0738，向中间价靠拢，昨日中间 价受股市反弹提振，开在7.08以下。短线关注股汇联动的持续性，突破7.10后下一关键支撑为7.05。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青11月27日表示，人民币走势偏强，会提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多海 外资金流入国内资本市场，并与汇市走强形成良性联动。综合各类影响因素，预计短期内人民币还会处 于偏强运行状态，接下来要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和 节奏。其中，伴随美联储未来还可能继续降息，以及特朗普政府关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美 元指数上行空间有限；不过，年初以来美元跌 ...

11月26日，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中升破7.08关口，最高至7.0788，创下2024年10月中旬以来的盘中新高。 | < W | | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDCNY.IB | | | | 7.0820 | | 前收 | 7.0938 | 开盘 | 7.0850 | | -0.0118 -0.17% | | 卖出 | 7.0821 | 买入 | 7.0820 | | 最高 | 7.0869 | 今年来 | -2.97% | 20日 | -0.24% | | 最低 | 7.0788 | 10日 | -0.49% | 60日 | -1.12% | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 目K | 更多 ◎ | | 暨加 | | | | | | | 7.1086 | | | | | 0.21% | | 7 0020 | | | | | 0 000% | | 7.0790 | | | | | -0.21% | | 9:30 | 13:45 | | 18:15 | 22:30 | 3:00 | ...

Core Points - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) reached a one-year high on November 13, 2024, with the exchange rate breaking through the 7.11 and 7.10 thresholds, closing at 7.0959, an increase of 213 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - The offshore CNY also strengthened, surpassing the 7.10 mark, with a peak of 7.09400 during the day, marking a monthly high [2] - The US Dollar Index turned from an increase to a decrease, falling to a low of 99.2914, down over 0.15% [3] Summary by Sections Exchange Rate Movements - On November 13, the CNY/USD exchange rate reached 7.0959, up 213 basis points from the previous day, marking a new high since mid-October 2024 [1] - The offshore CNY also saw gains, with a peak of 7.09400, indicating strong performance in the international market [2] Economic Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasized maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system, ensuring the CNY remains stable at a reasonable level while being responsive to market supply and demand [3] - The central bank's report highlighted the importance of guiding expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [3] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts predict that the CNY will remain strong in the short term, with a focus on the USD's performance and the central bank's control over the CNY's midpoint rate [4] - It is expected that the CNY will continue to exhibit a pattern of inverse fluctuations with the USD, with limited volatility, and the likelihood of breaking the 7.0 mark before year-end is low [4]

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD has shown a strong "stability" signal, with the rate reported at 7.0995 on October 15, marking an increase of 26 points and the first time above 7.10 since late October last year [1] - The onshore RMB opened at 7.1270, rising over 140 points, while the offshore RMB saw a daily increase of approximately 200 points, indicating an appreciation trend [1] - Experts suggest that the recovery of the RMB against the USD and the new high since October 21, 2024, reflects a focus on "stabilizing the exchange rate" as a current policy priority [1] Group 2 - The growth rate of foreign exchange deposits in domestic financial institutions has surpassed the threshold of 6% to 10%, indicating that the RMB has entered an appreciation cycle [2] - The current appreciation cycle of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the USD due to the Federal Reserve's easing policies, with expectations of continued RMB appreciation until mid-next year [2] - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate against the USD amid increasing global political uncertainties and the potential for funds to flow from the US to non-US countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both external and internal factors, including signals from the Federal Reserve and a strong domestic capital market [1][2]. External Factors - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy has opened up space for RMB appreciation, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar index [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has encouraged export companies to accelerate their currency conversion, contributing to the RMB's strength [2]. Internal Factors - The recent recovery of the domestic capital market, particularly the A-share market, has increased risk appetite and led to a rise in cross-border capital inflows into RMB assets [2]. - China's stable economic growth and favorable foreign trade conditions, along with a high trade surplus, have improved market sentiment and reduced concerns over trade tensions [2]. Short-term Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue fluctuating within a range, supported by stable domestic economic performance and increased currency conversion by enterprises [3]. - A slight adjustment in the RMB exchange rate was observed following a significant rise, influenced by technical corrections and a minor rebound in the US dollar index [2]. Long-term Outlook - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a strong position in the short term, with potential for appreciation, while the long-term outlook remains stable due to the Federal Reserve's policies and domestic economic stability [3]. - The risks of significant appreciation or depreciation of the RMB are considered low, with ample policy space for counter-cyclical adjustments to ensure economic stability [3].