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港美股看台丨年内港股表现领先全球,还能涨吗?
证券时报· 2025-07-30 11:38
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, leading global markets, but has recently experienced increased volatility and a significant drop on July 30, 2025 [1][6]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has risen over 25% in 2025, outperforming major global markets such as the US and Japan, where the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have increased by 4.91%, 9.26%, and 8.32% respectively [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has only seen a cumulative increase of 7.88% during the same period, indicating that Hong Kong's performance is superior to that of A-shares [5]. Factors Driving Market Strength - Three main factors have contributed to the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market: stable economic growth with a GDP growth rate exceeding 5%, improved US-China relations, and positive developments in certain domestic industries such as innovative pharmaceuticals [8]. - The "Davis Double Play" effect, characterized by low valuations and strong profit growth, has attracted capital to the Hong Kong market, making it a preferred choice for global investors seeking to avoid risks associated with high-valued markets [9]. - The influx of southbound capital has significantly influenced the pricing power in the Hong Kong market, with southbound trading accounting for a larger share of total trading volume in 2025 compared to 2024 [9][10]. Capital Inflows - As of July 30, 2025, southbound trading has seen a net inflow of 853.7 billion HKD, surpassing the total net inflow for the entire year of 2024 [11]. - The total trading volume of southbound capital has exceeded 15 trillion HKD in 2025, indicating heightened trading activity compared to 11.23 trillion HKD in 2024 [12]. Future Outlook - Despite recent volatility, the Hong Kong market is still considered to have room for growth, as current levels remain significantly below historical highs [14]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing positive factors may continue to support the market, with expectations of favorable news emerging in the near future [15]. - The strong performance of the Hong Kong market is closely linked to foreign capital inflows and the significant role of southbound capital, with sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals gaining consensus among investors [16].