Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The possibility of a trend - based economic recovery in 2026 is low. To cope with uncertainties, monetary policy still needs to have aggregate - based loosening. The report maintains the judgment of two interest rate cuts next year, and the bond market can be optimistic. In the short term, the bond market adjustment may have basically ended, and the bond market pressure in the first quarter of next year may be lower than expected. The bond market interest rate may break through the previous low [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Economic Goal - The economic growth target for next year may remain at around 5%, but there are still many old problems and new challenges, and it will be difficult to achieve [6]. Fiscal Policy - Compared with last year, the expression of fiscal policy has weakened. The deficit rate may remain at 4%, with 5 trillion yuan in new special bonds, 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds. Considering macro uncertainties, some new special bonds may be revitalized in the second half of the year. The net financing of government bonds may be about 1.5 trillion yuan more than this year [7]. Local Finance - Changing from "increasing local autonomous financial resources" to "attaching importance to solving local fiscal difficulties" does not provide more incremental information [8]. Debt Resolution - Debt resolution remains the focus of local work next year. The meeting requires actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, urging localities to take the initiative to resolve debts, and not allowing illegal new implicit debts, and also requires accelerating the clearance of arrears to enterprises [10]. Monetary Policy - The tone of monetary policy is still "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy", and the modifier for reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts has changed from "opportunistically" to "flexibly and efficiently". The central bank may not conduct aggregate - based loosening based on financial data changes but anchor economic growth, inflation, and boosting social confidence. There may be structural policies to support key areas. The report expects two interest rate cuts next year, one at the beginning of next year [11]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The expression of expanding domestic demand has weakened. Although it mentions "promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize", the "optimization - based" means seem insufficient. "Continuing to play the role of new policy - based tools" and "deeply promoting energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries" may be important measures next year [12]. Real Estate - In the arrangement of key work, the priority of real estate has dropped, and the expression has also weakened. The urgency of real - estate work has decreased [13]. Anti - Involution - Anti - involution continues to be steadily promoted. It emphasizes that anti - involution needs to be based on the construction of a national unified market. Regulating tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies may reduce duplicate production capacity initiated by local governments, but demand will also be affected, and price recovery may face certain resistance [14]. Reform of Small and Medium - sized Financial Institutions - The reform of small and medium - sized financial institutions will accelerate mergers. The trend of large institutions merging small and medium - sized ones is clear. More than 350 small and medium - sized banks have exited the market this year, and state - owned large banks have participated in integration activities [15]. Policy Rhythm - The demand for policies to be implemented earlier has weakened, and the possibility of a good start in the first quarter of next year needs further observation [16].

田轩认为，未来这块有望出台以下举措：对高风险中小金融机构，通过并购重组、引入战略投资者、接 管托管等方式推进市场化改革；对严重资不抵债、无法持续经营的机构，依法实施破产清算或撤销，强 化市场退出机制；鼓励优质银行、保险等机构参股或控股中小金融机构，补充资本金；推动中小金融机 构完善公司治理，强化股东资质穿透式监管，防范内部人控制风险。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 韩宋辉）中央经济工作会议指出，深入推进中小金融机构减量提质，持续 深化资本市场投融资综合改革。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 韩宋辉）中央经济工作会议指出，深入推进中小金融机构减量提质，持续 深化资本市场投融资综合改革。 清华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长田轩接受上证报记者采访时表示，会议释放的信 号是，中小金融机构将在"减量"的同时强调"提质"，引导留存的中小金融机构聚焦主责主业，深耕地方 经济，提升对县域、小微企业、"三农"等薄弱环节的服务能力。 清华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长田轩接受上证报记者采访时表示，会议释放的信 号是，中小金融机构将在"减量"的同时强调" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined key tasks for economic work in the coming year, emphasizing the need for reform and enhancing high-quality development momentum. Group 1: Economic Reforms - The conference proposed to persist in reform efforts to enhance the vitality of high-quality development [1] - A nationwide unified market construction regulation will be formulated to address "involution" competition [1] - Further deepening of state-owned enterprise reforms and improving supporting regulations for promoting the private economy will be implemented [1] Group 2: Financial and Market Improvements - There will be an accelerated effort to clear overdue payments owed to enterprises [1] - The development of platform enterprises and the mutual benefits for platform operators and workers will be promoted [1] - Market-oriented reform pilot programs will be expanded [1] Group 3: Tax and Financial System Enhancements - A sound local tax system will be established [1] - Continuous improvement of small and medium-sized financial institutions will be pursued, focusing on quality over quantity [1] - Ongoing comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing will be deepened [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined key priorities for economic work in the coming year, focusing on high-quality development and reform initiatives [1] Group 1: Economic Reforms - Emphasis on reform to enhance the vitality and momentum of high-quality development [1] - Development of a national unified market construction regulation to address "involution" competition [1] - Implementation of further deepening reforms for state-owned enterprises and improvement of supporting regulations for the promotion of the private economy [1] Group 2: Financial and Market Initiatives - Acceleration of clearing overdue payments owed to enterprises [1] - Promotion of win-win development for platform enterprises, operators, and workers [1] - Expansion of pilot programs for market-oriented reforms of factors [1] - Improvement of the local tax system [1] - Continued advancement of quality improvement and reduction in small financial institutions, along with ongoing comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing [1]