存量政策的优化是未来一段时间得重点，通过调整存量政策的形式、节奏和用途，支 撑经济增长。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 酝酿已久的新型政策性金融工具于9月底落地，市场关注后续是否还会出台增量政策，进而成为引发风 格切换的导火索。展望四季度，出台增量政策的可能性有多大？如何把握政策的节奏？ 第一，9月22日国新办新闻发布会、9月26日央行三季度货币政策例会、国庆假期《人民日报》"钟才 文"七连评是观察政策态度的三个窗口，从重要会议和官媒表述来看，短期内政策加码的诉求并不突 出。 9月22日的国新办新闻发布会并未复刻去年的"924"，核心定调是总结成就。潘行长明确指出，本次发 布会不涉及短期性调整，未来的金融改革内容将在中央统一部署后再沟通。会议强调了科创板和科技型 企业在A股市值中的占比提升，表明当前金融政策的目标更倾向于提振科技，对于短期经济的刺激和托 底，并无太多涉及。 9月26日央行第三季度货币政策例会的关键变化是，在对经济形势的表述上删除了"风险隐患较多"， 表明央行对当前经济运行较为乐观；在对货币政策的定调上，删除了"加力实施增量政策"的关键表 述，强调"抓好各项货币政策措施执行"，表明当前货币政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has approved a pilot program for comprehensive reform of factor market-oriented allocation in ten regions, including Beijing's urban sub-center and key cities in southern Jiangsu, focusing on traditional factors like land, labor, and capital, as well as innovative factors like technology and data [1] Group 1: Market-Oriented Reform - The reform aims to break through entrenched interests and promote the construction of a unified national market, addressing local protectionism and market segmentation [1] - The initiative is seen as a crucial step in building a high-level socialist market economy, providing new momentum for high-quality economic and social development [1] Group 2: Resource Allocation and Market Efficiency - Emphasizing the importance of a large-scale market, the article advocates for a unified and competitive market system that facilitates the smooth flow of resources across regions and sectors [2] - The need to enhance the market's decisive role in resource allocation is highlighted, particularly in transforming technological factors into tangible productivity [2] Group 3: Active Market Engagement - The article stresses the importance of making the factor trading market more active and improving the price formation mechanism, which involves changing perceptions about resource limitations and the value of factors [3] - A specific example is provided with the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region's initiative to create a comprehensive pilot for the grape and wine industry, addressing challenges in financing, circulation, and sales channels [3] Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - The reform is acknowledged to be extensive and challenging, with a two-year pilot period aimed at overcoming systemic obstacles and accumulating experience for broader implementation [3] - Continuous exploration and detailed implementation are necessary to balance effective markets with proactive government roles, maximizing resource allocation efficiency [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of policies by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments aims to address bottlenecks in service consumption, promoting a shift towards service consumption as a dominant form of consumption in China [1] Group 1: Current State of Service Consumption - China's service consumption is characterized by multi-layered and diversified features, with a growing demand for quality in basic services such as education, healthcare, and elderly care [2] - There is a rapid increase in demand for improved services, with cultural, tourism, and sports services becoming key areas for consumption upgrades [2] - Emerging high-end services like premium healthcare and customized tourism are flourishing [2] Group 2: Challenges in Service Consumption - Service consumption faces challenges such as mismatched supply and demand, with a surplus of low-end services and a shortage of high-end services [2] - Quality standards in services are not well established, leading to high decision-making costs for consumers and inhibiting immediate consumption [2] - There is a notable shortfall in services for the elderly and childcare, alongside a lack of professional talent in critical areas like elderly care [2] Group 3: Solutions to Address Bottlenecks - Digital technology can play a crucial role in bridging gaps, with internet platforms efficiently matching supply and demand, and big data providing insights into consumer needs [3] - Standardization in service quality is essential, as services are inherently intangible and heterogeneous, necessitating a robust standard system to ensure quality [3] - Market-oriented reforms in the talent market are vital, focusing on innovative vocational education and the effective use of data as a new production factor [3] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - A differentiated approach is needed for various service categories, ensuring basic public services are equitable, while expanding supply for inclusive services through policy guidance [4] - For high-end personalized services, market vitality should be stimulated through deeper reforms, encouraging innovation and competitive differentiation [4] - Establishing a multi-layered and diversified service supply system is crucial to meet the growing needs of the population for a better quality of life [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the comprehensive reform pilot plan for the market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, aiming to enhance the efficiency of factor allocation and stimulate productivity [4]. Group 1: Market-Oriented Allocation of Land Indicators - The reform emphasizes the market-oriented allocation of land indicators, addressing the imbalance where underdeveloped areas receive more construction land indicators while potential development areas face shortages [6]. - Specific regions like the Hefei metropolitan area and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area propose cross-regional trading of surplus land indicators to enhance land use efficiency and support high-quality development [6]. Group 2: Equalization of Basic Public Services and "Human-Land-Money" Linkage - The reform plans to implement a system linking basic public services to the place of residence, with regions like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area aiming to improve service standards [8]. - Chengdu's plan focuses on matching new construction land with population trends, while cities like Chongqing emphasize the "human-land-money" linkage to align fiscal transfers and public service investments with urbanization [8]. Group 3: Rural Homestead Reform - The reform aims to facilitate urbanization of rural populations by exploring voluntary compensation mechanisms for exiting homestead rights, thereby increasing financial support for rural migrants [9]. - Regions like Beijing and Chongqing are investigating specific methods for voluntary exit from homestead rights, which could enhance the willingness of rural residents to migrate to cities [9]. Group 4: Improvement of Income Distribution System - The reform plans to increase labor remuneration in the initial distribution and enhance residents' income through land and capital rights [10]. - Hefei's plan includes raising wages for frontline workers and adjusting minimum wage standards, while regions like Fuzhou and Xiamen focus on increasing farmers' share of land appreciation profits [11]. Group 5: Improvement of Technology Achievement Property Rights System - The reform encourages granting researchers ownership or long-term usage rights of their technological achievements, with Hefei proposing at least 70% ownership rights for researchers [12]. - The plan also promotes the capitalization of technology, including knowledge property financing and supporting quality tech companies in listing [12]. Group 6: Support for Researchers Starting Enterprises - Several regions support researchers in starting businesses, facilitating the flow of talent between academia and industry [13]. - For instance, Suzhou's plan allows researchers to extend their leave for business creation if they are in high-tech sectors [13]. Group 7: Optimization of Technology Innovation Resource Allocation - The reform proposes implementing a chief scientist responsibility system to enhance innovation management and strengthen the role of leading enterprises in technological innovation [14]. Group 8: Financial Industry Opening Up - The reform encourages Taiwanese financial institutions to participate in the mainland market and explores financial product connectivity between China and Singapore [15]. Group 9: Facilitation of Cross-Border RMB Payment Settlement - The reform aims to simplify cross-border RMB settlement processes and establish a unified bank settlement account system for domestic and foreign currencies [16][17]. Group 10: Public Data Opening and Data Element Confirmation - The reform emphasizes the opening of high-value public data sets and explores market-oriented pricing for data elements, promoting data service trade [18].

来源：21世纪经济报道 图片来源：创意制图 许树星 2025年8月21日，国务院发布了《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》，着力推动人工智能与经济社会各行业各领域广泛深度融合，重塑人 类生产生活范式，促进生产力革命性跃迁和生产关系深层次变革，加快形成人机协同、跨界融合、共创分享的智能经济和智能社会新形态。着 眼未来，以人工智能创新带动技术要素全面市场化改革，一方面应该在推动人工智能理论、政策、实践、应用全面完善的基础上，促使人工智 能与其他前沿技术形成更有效的联动作用；另一方面，人工智能与劳动力、资本、土地等其他各类要素应该形成协同共赢的格局，例如努力构 建更好的人力资源发展格局，避免人工智能应用对就业产生重大结构性冲击。 其次，数据要素市场化改革同样成为拓展内在经济活力的新"蓝海"。随着数字经济扑面而来，数据所蕴含的重要战略价值与经济价值已引起国 内外各方的高度关注。与此同时，与数据价值挖掘相关的数据权属、数据治理和数据安全等问题也越来越凸显。就实践层面看，包括数据采 集、数据存储、数据处理加工、数据流通、数据分析、数据应用、生态保障等环节的数据要素产业链，也已经成为各国发展的重点产业。就政 策层面看， ...

Group 1 - The State Council has issued a plan for pilot reforms in market-oriented allocation of factors in 10 regions, which is a significant step towards building a unified national market and will provide new momentum for high-quality economic and social development [1] - The reform focuses on market-oriented approaches for typical factors such as technology, data, land, human resources, and capital, with technology and data being key areas for future exploration [1] Group 2 - New technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), are seen as crucial for developing new production methods and enhancing total factor productivity, with the global AI industry expected to reach $638.2 billion in 2024 [2] - The AI sector is projected to attract a record $100.4 billion in venture capital in 2024, indicating a significant investment trend [2] Group 3 - The State Council's opinion on implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative aims to promote deep integration of AI across various sectors, leading to a revolutionary shift in productivity and production relations [3] - The initiative emphasizes the need for collaboration between AI and other factors like labor, capital, and land to create a win-win scenario, while also addressing potential structural impacts on employment [3] Group 4 - The market-oriented reform of data factors is recognized as a new "blue ocean" for enhancing economic vitality, with increasing attention on data ownership, governance, and security [4] - The data industry chain, including data collection, storage, processing, circulation, analysis, and application, is becoming a focal point for development globally [4] Group 5 - In 2024, China's data production is expected to reach 41.06 zettabytes (ZB), a 25% increase year-on-year, while total data storage is projected at 2.09 ZB, up 20.81% [5] - The active data volume from enterprises has increased by 22.73%, with active data accounting for 62.04% of total storage, highlighting the growing importance of data in the economy [5] - The reform process will focus on improving top-level design, legal frameworks, and standards, while also addressing regional disparities in data resources and enhancing the integration of data with AI and other factors [5]

Group 1: Reform Overview - The State Council has approved a pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in 10 regions, focusing on six key elements: technology, land, human resources, data, capital, and environmental resources[2] - The reform plans are tailored to local conditions, addressing critical issues in factor marketization, including land index marketization and rural homestead reform[4] Group 2: Land and Resource Allocation - The reform emphasizes market-oriented allocation of land indicators, allowing regions with surplus indicators to transfer them to areas with higher development potential, enhancing land resource efficiency[5] - Zhengzhou's plan focuses on transforming underutilized industrial land into new industrial land, supporting industrial upgrades[5] Group 3: Public Services and Population Management - The pilot regions, except Beijing, propose a system where basic public services are provided based on the place of residence, aiming for equalization of services[6] - Chengdu's plan explores matching new construction land with population trends, while other regions emphasize linking fiscal transfers and public service investments to urbanization of rural populations[6] Group 4: Rural Land Reform - The reform aims to facilitate urbanization of rural populations by exploring voluntary and compensated exit mechanisms for rural homestead rights, enhancing financial support for migrants[7] - The focus is on increasing the property value of homestead rights as urbanization progresses, thereby boosting rural residents' income potential[7] Group 5: Income Distribution and Labor Compensation - The reform plans aim to increase labor compensation in the initial distribution of income and enhance residents' income through land and capital rights[8] - Hefei's plan includes raising minimum wage standards and improving wage negotiation systems to benefit frontline workers[8] Group 6: Technology and Innovation - The plans propose granting researchers ownership or long-term usage rights of their scientific achievements, with Hefei suggesting at least 70% ownership rights for researchers[9] - There is a focus on promoting technology capitalization, including knowledge property financing and encouraging quality tech companies to go public[9] Group 7: Financial Sector Reforms - The Fuzhou-Xiamen-Quanzhou region's plan supports Taiwanese financial institutions' participation in mainland financial markets, enhancing cross-border financial cooperation[13] - The Chongqing plan encourages exploration of financial product and capital connectivity between China and Singapore[13] Group 8: Data Management and Utilization - The reform emphasizes the opening of high-value public data sets in various sectors, including health and transportation, to promote transparency and innovation[15] - The Suzhou-Nanjing region's plan explores market-oriented pricing and management of data assets, facilitating data trading[15] Group 9: Risk Considerations - There are risks related to misinterpretation of policies and potential delays in land reform progress, which may affect the overall effectiveness of the pilot programs[16]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 3900-point mark, with expectations for potential opportunities and risks in the upcoming week [1] Policy Outlook - Key highlights for the upcoming week include a press conference from the State Council Information Office, with three potential positive developments: 1. Financial policy adjustments, including the central bank's recent change to "multiple price bidding" for reverse repos, signaling targeted liquidity support 2. Enhanced industrial policies, with significant documents expected for sectors like energy storage, smart connected vehicles, and semiconductors 3. New consumer stimulus policies potentially being introduced before the National Day holiday, focusing on tourism and retail subsidies [3] - Recent regulatory reforms, such as the registration system reform, are expected to facilitate the entry of quality companies while allowing weaker firms to exit more easily [3] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The market sentiment has cooled, with the fear and greed index dropping from 75 to 62, indicating reduced enthusiasm among investors [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has been consolidating around the 3900-point level for over half a month, with the 3850-point mark being crucial for market stability [4] - The ChiNext Index has reached new highs, but caution is advised as the MACD indicator shows signs of weakening momentum [4] Capital Flow - Northbound capital has shown significant inflows, with a net purchase of nearly 40 billion in September, primarily targeting technology growth stocks such as communication equipment and semiconductors [4] - Traditional consumer sectors like home appliances and textiles are experiencing reduced interest from these investors [4] Investment Strategy - Recommended positioning includes maintaining a 60% base position with 30% in flexible capital, focusing on technology growth sectors like semiconductors and robotics, which benefit from both capital inflows and policy support [5] - Defensive strategies should consider undervalued blue-chip stocks, banks, insurance, and gold sectors, which tend to perform well during interest rate cuts [5] - Caution is advised regarding high-valuation technology stocks and industries sensitive to tariff impacts, as these may pose risks [5] Key Signals to Monitor - Important signals to watch include whether northbound capital can exceed a net inflow of 8 billion in a single day, if the Shanghai Composite Index can maintain above 3850 points, and whether trading volume in technology stocks can increase [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by the comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in ten pilot regions in China, which collectively account for over a quarter of the national economy, aiming to enhance efficiency and break through existing barriers [1][3][24]. Group 1: Selected Pilot Regions - The ten pilot regions were strategically chosen, representing major economic areas across eastern, central, and western China, including the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and regional growth poles like Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and Chengdu-Chongqing [3][5]. - These regions have a strong economic foundation and are expected to serve as experimental grounds for reform, leveraging their unique characteristics and existing reform initiatives to reduce trial and error costs [5][9]. Group 2: Changes in Factor Allocation - The article highlights the historical barriers in China's factor markets, including inefficient flows of land, labor, and capital, and notes that a transformation in allocation rules is underway [7][9]. - Innovations such as the rural property information trading platform in Shenyang have demonstrated effective land resource utilization, with a reported premium rate of 23% for leasing farmland [7][9]. - The Shenzhen Data Exchange has pioneered new data circulation models, significantly reducing the time for health insurance claims from 2-3 days to an average of 28 minutes [7][9]. Group 3: Opportunities Created by Reform - The market-oriented reform is generating multi-layered development opportunities, particularly for technology-driven enterprises, which are gaining access to more funding channels [11][14]. - Companies like Weifang Tianxin Radiator Co., Ltd. and Zibo Boxin Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. have successfully secured loans through innovative financing mechanisms despite lacking traditional collateral [11][14]. Group 4: Challenges in Reform Implementation - The reform faces challenges such as local protectionism, which may hinder the free flow of factors and the formation of a unified market, as seen in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [16][19]. - There are existing policy barriers across different regions regarding land quotas, tax distribution, and environmental standards, as well as a lack of unified standards for new factors like data property rights [16][19]. Group 5: Ensuring Effective Reform - Successful implementation of the factor market reform requires collaborative efforts across various stakeholders, with an emphasis on establishing effective coordination mechanisms [19][21]. - The establishment of a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework is essential to clarify property rights, transaction rules, and regulatory standards for factor allocation [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - The business environment in Henan Province has shown a steady upward trend, indicating a solid foundation for economic development and a significant improvement in its ranking among China's provinces [1][3][12]. Group 1: Current Status and Characteristics - Henan's business environment has consistently ranked in the upper tier among 31 provinces, reflecting a robust foundation for business operations [3]. - The province's ranking improved from 12th and 13th in 2017-2018 to 10th in 2022, marking it as one of the provinces with the most significant improvement in business environment [3]. - Key areas such as government services and market conditions have maintained a strong performance, contributing to the province's economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Comparative Advantages - Henan excels in government support, property rights protection, and fair competition, which are crucial for a favorable business environment [4]. - The province has seen explosive growth in the number of entrepreneurial enterprises, indicating a release of business vitality [4]. - However, areas such as the legal environment and openness still require improvement to enhance the overall business climate [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To optimize the market environment, it is essential to address financing challenges by encouraging financial institutions to innovate and expand credit for small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. - Ensuring fair competition through strict enforcement of market access regulations and eliminating discriminatory policies is vital [5]. - Enhancing the efficiency of government services and standardizing processes can significantly improve the business environment [6]. Group 4: Legal and Institutional Improvements - Strengthening the legal framework and administrative enforcement is necessary to maintain fairness and justice in the business environment [7]. - Increasing judicial transparency and improving the quality of judicial services will enhance public trust in the legal system [7]. - Promoting legal education and awareness among businesses can empower them to operate within the legal framework [7]. Group 5: Cultural and Human Environment - Building a robust credit system and promoting cultural brands can enhance the business environment and attract investment [8][9]. - Improving urban infrastructure and living conditions will contribute to a more favorable environment for businesses and talent [9]. - Expanding high-level openness and international cooperation will further integrate Henan into the global economy [9][10]. Group 6: Strategic Goals and Collaboration - Setting phased goals for improving the business environment, particularly in legal and cultural aspects, is crucial for regional competitiveness [10]. - Learning from advanced regions and establishing collaborative mechanisms can enhance the overall business environment in Henan [10][11]. - A systematic approach to upgrading the business environment will ensure sustainable economic growth and attract more enterprises to Henan [11][12].