Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report provides intraday, short - term, and medium - term views and core logics for three agricultural commodity futures: soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil. It analyzes the price driving factors of each commodity and points out future areas of concern [5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price View**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: U.S. soybean futures prices are above 1100 cents per bushel, supported by the expectation of Sino - U.S. trade relaxation and the news that China plans to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans. However, the key report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on November 14 may bring uncertainties. If the report lowers the yield per unit, it may strengthen the strong oscillation of U.S. soybeans. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has risen slightly due to poor crushing margins of oil mills and strong price - holding intentions. But the demand side is affected by breeding losses, and the decline in Brazilian premium will limit the rebound of soybean meal futures prices. In the short term, the supply pressure in the domestic industrial chain will still restrict the rebound space of futures prices [5][6] - **Future Concerns**: South American weather and the actual fulfillment of purchases [6] Palm Oil (P) - **Price View**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5][7] - **Core Logic**: Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% month - on - month. The current loose supply - demand pattern of palm oil is difficult to change in the short term. The contradiction between the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and weak exports is prominent, and the weakening demand after India's Diwali festival intensifies the inventory accumulation expectation. In addition, the high port inventory of palm oil in China has increased the pressure on the domestic palm oil market. In the short term, palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower integer level [7] - **Future Concerns**: Production and sales data in Southeast Asia and the inventory reduction rhythm in China [7] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price View**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Influencing Factors**: Sino - U.S. relations, U.S. biofuel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: In the short - term, gold is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate. The recommended view is to wait and see. The core logic is the expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the rising expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with strong profit - taking intentions of funds [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term and medium - term, copper is expected to rise. The recommended view is to be bullish in the long run. The core logic is the resurgence of mine - end disturbances, a rapid increase in capital attention, and Sino - US trade intensifying fluctuations [1][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Price Movement: New York gold has seen an amplitude of over 3% in the last 4 trading days, with a 5% drop on Tuesday. It fell to the $4000 mark and then rebounded [3]. - Driving Factors: Short - term decline is due to the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Sino - US trade relaxation, and strong profit - taking after a large cumulative increase since September. Regulatory agencies have issued risk warnings [3]. Copper (CU) - Price Movement: Copper prices have been relatively strong recently, falling slightly during the day due to the sharp decline in gold prices but showing resistance. The amplitude is converging, and the decline in open interest is slowing [4]. - Driving Factors: Market risk appetite has recovered, which is beneficial to copper prices. Macro - level easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while short - term industrial demand decline and high Comex inventories may suppress prices [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting expectations of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China versus the anticipated return of Iranian oil supply, which has led to a two-week increase in crude oil prices. The question posed is whether this trend is a trap or a turning point for the market [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - Expectations of improved trade relations between the U.S. and China are influencing market sentiment positively, potentially leading to increased demand for crude oil [1] - The easing of tariffs and trade barriers could stimulate economic activity, further supporting oil prices [1] Group 2: Iranian Oil Supply - The anticipated return of Iranian oil supply is creating uncertainty in the market, as it could lead to an oversupply situation if sanctions are lifted [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the geopolitical developments regarding Iran, as this could significantly impact global oil prices [1] Group 3: Market Trends - The recent two-week rise in crude oil prices raises questions about the sustainability of this trend amid conflicting supply and demand signals [1] - Market participants are divided on whether the current price increase is a genuine recovery or a temporary spike influenced by external factors [1]