Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue in the first half of the year, but showed improvement in profitability and cash flow management, with expectations for future revenue recovery driven by domestic and international contracts [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 6.745 billion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year decrease of 25.66% [1]. - In Q2, the revenue was 3.226 billion yuan, down 22.67% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 424 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 422 million yuan, up 13.01% [1]. Profitability - The overall gross margin improved to 15.12% in the first half, an increase of 3.66 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 16.62%, up 4.14 percentage points [2]. - The company effectively controlled its period expenses, with a period expense ratio of 5.95%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cash Flow - The net cash outflow from operating activities in the first half was 2.912 billion yuan, an increase in outflow of 1.355 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 69.74%, down 13.88 percentage points [3]. - In Q2, the net cash outflow from operating activities was 1.276 billion yuan, with a cash collection ratio of 77.87%, down 57.76 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Contracting Activity - The company secured new contracts worth 6.31 billion yuan in the first half, a year-on-year decline of 35.0%, with domestic new contracts at 2.444 billion yuan, up 53.8%, and international new contracts at 3.864 billion yuan, down 52.4% [3]. - Domestic new contracts showed signs of stabilization, while international contracts faced challenges due to slow project execution [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from potential order increases due to geopolitical developments, particularly if a ceasefire occurs in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. - The company has a healthy balance sheet with 6.86 billion yuan in cash and 1.05 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt, resulting in a net cash position of approximately 5.81 billion yuan [4]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio over the past three years, with expectations to continue this trend, projecting a dividend yield of about 4.7% for 2025 [4].

Group 1: Macro Overview - The macro environment remained relatively calm last week, lacking significant economic data, but overall maintained a risk-on sentiment [2][6] - Federal Reserve officials' dovish comments and market expectations regarding Trump's nominations for Fed positions suggest a likelihood of interest rate cuts [2][6] - The confirmation of a meeting between Trump and Putin keeps hopes for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict alive [2][6] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices increased by 1.24% on COMEX, while silver rose by 3.79% [4] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by Trump's nominations, have supported precious metal prices [7][21] - The announcement of tariffs on imported gold bars has led to increased uncertainty in gold supply, contributing to price fluctuations [7][21] Group 3: Copper Market Analysis - COMEX copper prices showed a slight increase, supported at the $4.3 level after previously retreating due to tariff expectations [6][8] - Domestic macro conditions remain favorable, with strong July export data and expectations for a positive PPI [8][51] - Copper consumption is not expected to face significant downside pressure, as inventory levels remain high but do not indicate a substantial drop in demand [9][51] Group 4: Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 130,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 170,000 ounces [34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.6 tons to 960 tons, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [40] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold rose, suggesting a dominant bullish outlook in the market [40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for both [1]. - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The main logic is that Sino - US relations are easing and there is an expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand [1][3]. - For nickel, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, so nickel prices tend to move sideways [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the overall gold price showed a downward trend. New York gold repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded after falling below $3200. Yesterday, the gold price oscillated above $3200, and the corresponding Shanghai gold oscillated above 755 yuan with a narrowing amplitude [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The decline in gold prices is due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand. The rebound is due to the recession expectation caused by the downward trend of the US economy. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. The "signals" from the second and third - in - command of the Fed indicate that there may be no interest rate cuts before September, causing the US dollar to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Short - term attention can be paid to the support level of $3200 [1][3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the main nickel futures price oscillated weakly around 124,000 yuan. Last week, the nickel price twice hit a high of 126,000 yuan and then fell back, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel has stabilized and rebounded but lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Attention can be paid to the technical support level of 123,000 yuan [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend is downward, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory due to factors like the easing of Sino - US relations and the adjustment of the US sovereign credit rating [1][3] - For nickel, a wait - and - see stance is also advised. The short - term trend is downward, the medium - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory because of the strong upstream and weak downstream in the industry [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly oscillatory; Reference view: wait - and - see [1][3] - **Core Logic**: Last week, the overall gold price trended downward. The decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduced market risk - aversion demand. The rebound was caused by the recession expectation due to the US economic slowdown. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. In the short term, the gold price rebounded after reaching the bottom and had strong support at the $3200 level [3] Nickel - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: weakly oscillatory; Reference view: wait - and - see [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Since last week, the positive macro factors at home and abroad have not significantly pushed up the nickel price, indicating that the industrial fundamentals are suppressing the upward movement. The strong upstream mining end supports the futures price, while the weak downstream demand exerts pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the 123,000 level [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to decline, with a suggestion to wait and see due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices [1] - For nickel 2506, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to fluctuate, and intraday to be weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion to wait and see because of strong upstream nickel mines and weak downstream stainless steel [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, gold prices initially dropped nearly 2% in the Asian morning session, with New York gold approaching $3100, then rebounded, turning from decline to increase, and New York gold regained the $3200 mark with an amplitude of over $100 [3] - **Driving Logic**: The initial decline was due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the improvement of global geopolitical situation, which reduced the demand for safe - haven assets. The subsequent rebound was because the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were postponed to Friday and neither leader would attend, which dispelled the expectation of a quick peace agreement, leading to the return of safe - haven funds. Also, poor US economic data, including retail data and PPI index falling short of expectations, increased the recession expectation and provided upward momentum for gold prices [3] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term gold prices have bottomed out and rebounded, with significant differences between bulls and bears. It is advisable to focus on the multi - empty game around the $3200 level of New York gold [3] Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Since this week, the main nickel futures price has been broadly fluctuating in the range of 123,000 - 126,000 yuan [5] - **Driving Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector has been fluctuating upward due to internal and external macro - level positives, but nickel has been relatively weak. This is mainly because nickel prices are greatly affected by the industrial fundamentals, with strong upstream mines providing support and weak downstream demand exerting pressure. With a good macro - environment and neutral industrial performance, nickel prices may fluctuate strongly [5]