水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 身不由己 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨0.52%， 收报3882.78点； 深证成指涨 0.35%， 收报13526.51点； 创业板指涨0.00%， 收报3238 .16 点； 科创50指数涨 1.69%， 收报1495.29点 。 沪深两市成交额达到21814亿，较上一交易日放量200亿。 老水看盘 主力对上证指数的把控已到炉火纯青的地步。今 天 上证指数收盘上涨 20.25 点，全天指数 波动区间约 20 点，大致在 3866-3887 点 之间，基本呈现 "涨不让涨、跌不让跌"的状 态。实现这一调控的工具便是银行股、证券股与保险股。 既然主力如此控盘，昨 天 股市为何会大涨？其实昨 天 大涨或许是 "阴差阳错"——从盘面可 见，昨 天 证券、保险板块的大涨由 H 股引发。换句话 来讲 ，港股上演了 "围魏救赵"的 局 面 。正是通过拉升港股的券商股与保险股，才带动 A 股跟涨。 今 天 盘面也有类似情况：港股早盘高开低走，但午后开始一路拉升，尤其在 A 股收盘后，拉 升力度进一步加大。港股拉升本有其自身操作逻辑 以及自己的出发点 ，却没想 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Xiaoyu Yingtong (00139) experienced a dramatic fluctuation, dropping over 38% before surging by 60% within two months, showcasing a remarkable capital game in the market [1][12]. Group 1: Stock Performance Phases - The capital game can be divided into three distinct phases: a decline phase from June 18 to June 30, a consolidation phase from July 2 to July 18, and a rally phase from July 21 to August 12 [3][12]. - During the decline phase, the stock fell 38.46% over nine trading days, with a significant volume of 28.472 billion, indicating a strong bearish control [4][6]. - The consolidation phase saw price stagnation with a volatility of approximately 25%, where the stock price fluctuated but did not break the 0.018 resistance level [7][9]. - The rally phase resulted in a 60% increase over 16 trading days, characterized by a strong bullish volume, with 80% of the volume being positive [12][13]. Group 2: Trading Strategies and Volume Analysis - In the decline phase, the strategy involved a significant redistribution of shares, with a high replacement rate of 82% for high-position shares [5][6]. - The consolidation phase demonstrated a controlled trading environment, where the main players maintained a high frequency of small upward movements to test retail investor psychology [9][10]. - The rally phase was marked by a perfect rhythm of volume and price, with a notable increase in shares held at lower price levels, indicating effective capital management [12][14]. Group 3: Market Psychology and Investor Behavior - The initial drop was designed to break the psychological defenses of investors, followed by a period of patience-testing through minimal price movements [10][12]. - The final surge attracted observers to chase prices, highlighting the effectiveness of the capital strategy employed [12][14].

Group 1: Macro Events and Market Impact - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that both sides will continue to promote the extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures, which is beneficial for export-dependent Chinese companies such as Haier and Midea, potentially boosting their valuations [2] - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 4% to 4.8%, primarily due to better-than-expected exports and lower-than-expected actual tariffs, which may attract foreign investment into Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and infrastructure [3] - The conflict at the Thailand-Cambodia border has escalated, impacting the Southeast Asian supply chain and benefiting defense and safe-haven assets while negatively affecting manufacturing sectors like electronics and rubber [4] Group 2: Key Industries and Stock Opportunities - Apple's AI team is experiencing turmoil with the departure of key members, which may hinder its self-developed AI progress and increase reliance on third-party models, benefiting partners like Microsoft and Google [5] - The approval of the "Blue Sky" plan by the U.S. Department of Transportation for JetBlue and United Airlines enhances customer loyalty and may catalyze global airline alliance integration, with a focus on Chinese airlines' international cooperation [7] - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted by 22% due to weak growth of its weight-loss drug Wegovy, leading to a downward revision of its 2025 sales and profit guidance, which negatively impacts global weight-loss drug stocks while benefiting competitors in the GLP-1 space [8] Group 3: Commodities and Monetary Policy - WTI crude oil prices surged nearly 4% to $69.21 per barrel, driven by easing trade tensions and U.S. pressure on Russian energy exports, benefiting oil service and exploration companies [9] - The Chilean central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, signaling a potential easing of monetary policy in Latin America, which is favorable for copper mining companies [10] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current investment strategy suggests increasing allocations in resource stocks (oil/copper) and AI technology beneficiaries while being cautious of geopolitical conflicts and potential valuation corrections in the pharmaceutical sector [11]