Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" trend in the Hangzhou futures market has led to significant drawdowns in the net value of several subjective CTA products from private equity institutions, highlighting the need for improved responsiveness to market changes despite a strong foundation in industrial fundamental analysis [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hangzhou futures market is characterized by a unique ecosystem formed since 2015, integrating "industrial capital + private equity funds + futures asset management" [1] - Major private equity firms such as Donghe Asset Management and Qiantang Yongli Asset Management have deep ties with Yong'an Futures, leveraging frontline intelligence in "warehousing-logistics-production line" [1] - The recent market changes have challenged traditional advantages, with losses attributed to a lag in responding to policy rhythms, emotional capital, and quantitative fund behaviors [1] Group 2: Performance Data - As of August 15, there are 690 futures and derivatives strategy products with performance data this year, with 79 from Hangzhou, ranking third in quantity [2] - The average return for Hangzhou products this year is 11.69%, placing them second overall, while they have shown resilience in the past month [2] - Among the 79 products in Hangzhou, the number of quantitative CTA and subjective CTA products is roughly equal, with subjective CTA strategies yielding higher average returns [2] Group 3: Strategy Breakdown - In Hangzhou, the top ten performing futures and derivatives strategy products have a high entry threshold, with subjective CTA products dominating the rankings [3] - The proportion of products achieving positive returns in the past month among subjective CTA products is 62.07%, indicating the agility of smaller private equity firms [4] - Qiantang Yongli Asset Management stands out as the only private equity firm in the 20-50 billion scale category, showcasing strong investment capabilities [4] Group 4: Institutional Insights - Eight private equity institutions in Hangzhou meet the ranking criteria, with the top three being mixed-type (subjective + quantitative) firms, reflecting the advantages of mixed strategies [4] - Junfu Investment and Qiantang Yongli Asset Management rank second and fifth respectively among 20-50 billion scale private equity firms, demonstrating robust investment styles [4] - Win Private Equity has emerged as a standout institution over the past year, advocating for counter-cyclical investments and showcasing exceptional performance in strategy and risk management [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The performance of the subjective CTA strategy line in the second half of 2025 will continue the trend of the first half. The consistency between macro and industrial directions benefits subjective CTA managers, and the source of income will not decline significantly. Also, the probability of position limits is low, which is conducive to the recovery of market liquidity [2][32][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Subjective CTA Review 1.1 Subjective CTA Strategy Net Value Performance - In H1 2025, the net value performance of managers in the observation pool was basically the same as that in H1 2024, and the maximum weekly drawdown was smaller. By sector, black and multi - sector managers had prominent returns. By scale, larger - scale managers had more obvious returns [8][11][14] 1.2 2025 H1 Subjective CTA Strategy Income Attribution - In H1 2025, the Nanhua Commodity Index weakened. The decline of coal drove the cost collapse of domestic industrial products. The income acquisition of subjective CTA was divided into two stages. In the first stage (Jan - Mar 2025), precious and non - ferrous metals rose, while domestic industrial products weakened. In the second stage (Apr - May 2025), after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, the market volatility increased, and subjective CTA managers performed well. The cost collapse of industrial products also promoted the performance of quantitative CTA factors [17][19][22] 2. Subjective CTA Strategy Industry Ecological Changes 2.1 Managers' Positions are Generally Low, Paying More Attention to Net Value Drawdown Management - Managers' positions are generally low, focusing on net value drawdown management. The income in H1 2025 came from the smooth trend of some varieties and the improvement of trading win - rate. Changes in trading habits are related to past commodity price fluctuations and capital requirements [26] 2.2 The Proportion of Industrial Hedging has Increased, Possibly Increasing Industrial Discourse Power - As the prices of industrial products such as coal decline, the industrial demand for hedging against price decline risks has increased. The reduction of the inventory transfer ability of factories through traders makes futures hedging a choice, which may increase industrial discourse power in subsequent pricing [30] 3. 2025 H2 Subjective CTA Outlook - The performance of the subjective CTA strategy line in H2 2025 will continue the trend of H1. The consistency between macro and industrial directions remains, and the decline trend of domestic industrial products has not changed. The probability of position limits is low, which is conducive to the recovery of market liquidity [32][33][35]