为深入探讨湾区财富管理行业的最新动态，展现行业前沿理念与实践，证券时报·券商中国携手深圳市财富管理协会，共同推出"岁末洞见·2026湾区财富 管理高端访谈"专栏，全方位擘画湾区财富管理领域的最新实践与助力行业高质量发展的责任担当。本文为专栏第五篇，敬请垂注！ 进入2026年，全球经济仍在寻找新的平衡点。 一方面，美联储政策周期由紧转松，全球利率中枢下移；另一方面，地缘政治冲突、产业链重构、资源品供需再平衡，使金融市场与大宗商品价格的波动 幅度显著放大。传统股债资产相关性趋同，分散化效果弱化，投资者迫切需要新的风险对冲与收益来源。 在此背景下，期货及衍生品如何在大类资产配置中发挥"危机阿尔法"价值？期货公司又该如何完成从经纪通道向衍生品特色财富管理机构的转型？ 围绕这些问题，券商中国记者在岁末之际专访了平安期货总经理袁建峰，就衍生品的配置价值、期货公司的转型路径、期货资管的差异化竞争、服务实体 经济的创新实践，以及2026年的市场前瞻，进行了深入交流。 期货不是资产，是工具 岁末洞见·2026湾区财富管理高端访谈 编者按： 2026年正处于"十四五"收官、"十五五"时期谋篇的关键节点，也是财富管理行业由"规模扩 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced an overall upward trend, with major indices recording significant gains, including an increase of over 18% in the Shanghai Composite Index and over 49% in the ChiNext Index [1] - The commodity market showed notable differentiation, with precious metals driven by safe-haven attributes and macroeconomic logic, achieving a cumulative annual increase of over 81% [1] Private Fund Performance - By the end of 2025, among 5,192 private funds displayed on the Private Fund Ranking website, the average annual return reached 31.93% [1] - Quantitative long and subjective long strategies performed particularly well, with average returns of 44.74% and 37.71%, respectively [1] - The active rotation in sectors such as consumption, technology, and high-end manufacturing created substantial structural opportunities for equity strategy funds, supported by active market trading and sustained liquidity [1] Strategy Performance Quantitative Long Strategy - The top-performing quantitative long products included 806 funds with an average return of 44.74% [3] - Notable products in this category included Gaia Qingke, Jintong Investment, and Hanrong Investment [4] Subjective Long Strategy - The subjective long strategy had 2,185 funds with an average return of 37.71%, with the highest entry threshold for the top 20 products [4][9] - Leading products in this category came from companies like Nengjing Investment Holdings and Shanghai Ge Ru Private Equity [10] Composite Strategy - The composite strategy saw 427 funds with an average return of 30.77%, with top products from Shuohe Asset and Tianhui Investment [12][15] Macro Strategy - The macro strategy included 133 funds, with the top products from companies like Jiuqi Investment and Luyuan Private Equity [16][18] - Notably, Luyuan Private Equity's product achieved significant returns, highlighting the effectiveness of macro strategies [20] Subjective CTA Strategy - The subjective CTA strategy had 78 funds, with top products from Yizu Investment and Chiying Private Equity [21][24] Quantitative CTA Strategy - The quantitative CTA strategy included 185 funds, with Hua Cheng Private Equity leading with significant returns [25][27] Private FOF Strategy - The private FOF strategy had 56 funds, with an average return of 20.55%, and top products from Shanghai Taiying and Qingdao Hongyun Ruiheng Private Equity [29][31] - The FOF strategy focuses on selecting and allocating multiple private funds to achieve diversified investment [29]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend in 2025, with major indices showing considerable gains, including an over 18% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a more than 49% rise in the ChiNext Index. Precious metals, driven by their safe-haven properties and macroeconomic logic, saw an impressive annual increase of over 81% [3]. Private Fund Performance - By the end of 2025, the average return for 5,192 private funds displayed on the Private Fund Ranking Network reached 31.93%. Notably, quantitative long and subjective long strategies performed exceptionally well, with average returns of 44.74% and 37.71%, respectively [3][5]. - The active rotation in sectors such as consumption, technology, and high-end manufacturing created substantial structural opportunities for equity strategy funds, further enhanced by active market trading and sustained liquidity [3]. Strategy Performance - Multi-asset strategies, including composite and macro strategies, also performed well, with average returns exceeding 29%. Other mainstream strategies, such as CTA and FOF strategies, achieved average returns above 20% [3]. - The top-performing strategies in 2025 included: - Quantitative Long: Average return of 44.74% - Subjective Long: Average return of 37.71% - Composite Strategy: Average return of 30.77% - Macro Strategy: Average return of 29.01% [5][6][11]. Top Funds by Strategy - The top 20 quantitative long products included firms such as Gaia Qingke, Jintong Investment, and Hanrong Investment, with the top threshold for returns being notably high [6][7]. - The leading subjective long products were from firms like Nengjing Investment Holdings and Shanghai Geryu Private Equity, with a high entry threshold for returns [11][13]. - In the composite strategy category, Shuohe Asset led the performance, followed by Tianhui Investment and Ningbo Shufa Private Equity [17][18]. - For macro strategies, notable performers included Jiuqi Investment and Luyuan Private Equity, with a significant number of products achieving high returns [20][21]. Private Fund of Funds (FOF) - The average return for private FOF products in 2025 was 20.55%, with the top ten funds including Shanghai Taiying and Qingdao Hongyun Ruiheng Private Equity [35][36]. - The leading FOF product, managed by Li Chunyu of Rongzhi Investment, achieved a notable return, emphasizing a focus on diversified asset allocation and risk management [40].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, commodities such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum performed well, leading to strong performance in private CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies, with many private funds capitalizing on opportunities in gold and silver [3]. Group 1: CTA Strategy Overview - The core feature of CTA strategies is the use of derivatives like futures and options for investment, rather than direct investments in stocks or bonds. These strategies can go long or short and aim for absolute returns, seeking profit opportunities regardless of market conditions [3]. - According to data from Private Placement Network, there were 551 CTA products displayed in 2025, with an average return of 24.79% and a median return of 13.22%. Among these, quantitative CTA products accounted for 375, with an average return of 20.21%, while subjective CTA products numbered 176, achieving an average return of 34.55% [3]. Group 2: Performance Rankings - For private funds with over 1 billion in assets, the top three quantitative CTA products in 2025 were from companies including Gongqingcheng Guangju Xinghe Private Fund, Shuanglong Investment, and Zhixin Rongke [8]. - In the category of private funds with less than 1 billion in assets, Jingying Zhito and Huacheng Private Fund had the top two quantitative CTA products, while Fanxu Asset and Farmer Private Fund led in subjective CTA products [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2026 will be a year of opportunities for CTA strategies, driven by a transition in the global economy and distinct trends in the commodity market, which will provide ample trading opportunities [6][12]. Group 1: Performance of CTA Strategies in 2025 - In 2025, the performance of subjective and quantitative CTA products was notable, with profitability ratios reaching 88.2% and 90.4%, respectively, and median annual returns of 16.47% and 12.65% [3]. - The maximum drawdown for these strategies was relatively low, with median values of -7.84% and -6.27%, indicating strong risk management [3]. - The commodity market demonstrated significant configuration value, particularly in precious and non-ferrous metals, which became key amplifiers for returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][7]. Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - The commodity market in 2026 is characterized by a "supply-demand mismatch," presenting clear long and short opportunities [7]. - Bullish sectors include gold, with forecasts predicting prices could rise to $4,900 to $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026, and copper, which may see average prices exceed $11,500 per ton due to supply disruptions [7]. - Conversely, bearish sectors include crude oil, with predictions of Brent crude prices dropping to around $57 per barrel due to oversupply, and iron ore, expected to decline to $95 per ton due to weak real estate demand [7]. Group 3: CTA Strategy Logic and Market Conditions - The clear long and short market dynamics align with CTA trading logic, where quantitative CTAs capture emerging trends and subjective CTAs leverage fundamental research for wave opportunities [8]. - The ongoing low-interest-rate environment and the "yield drought" backdrop enhance the appeal of CTA strategies, which can effectively diversify risk and improve risk-adjusted returns [12]. - In the long term, CTA strategies are positioned as a stabilizing asset class capable of navigating through cycles and capturing both bullish and bearish opportunities, reinforcing their role as a "ballast" in investment portfolios [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that while the technology sector is experiencing a strong rally, CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies are quietly achieving a "slow bull" market, maintaining low to moderate positive returns year-to-date [2][4] - The article presents data on various private equity strategies, indicating that subjective long positions have the highest number of products and total scale, while quantitative CTA strategies show a notable average return of 1.77% over the past month [3] - The CTA strategies have shown a steady upward trend in net value, continuously reaching new highs, which suggests they may hold greater allocation value in the current high-volatility market environment [4] Group 2 - The article identifies several underlying reasons for the stable performance of CTA strategies, including increased global macro volatility and clearer trend signals due to uncertain Federal Reserve policies and imbalances in commodity supply and demand [9] - CTA strategies are characterized by multi-asset diversification, providing a natural ability to withstand market shocks, and the evolution of quantitative models that adapt to reversal markets, significantly reducing drawdowns [10][11] - The article emphasizes the configuration value of CTA strategies, which utilize futures and derivatives for both long and short positions, allowing them to capture opportunities in both rising and falling markets [12] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of focusing on private equity managers with strong long-term performance and stability, suggesting a personalized allocation based on different strategy characteristics [18] - Specific managers are highlighted, such as Manager A (Fuying Investment), whose CTA strategy has low correlation with stock assets, and Manager B (Guanli Fund), whose products have outperformed stock strategy indices this year [19][20] - The article concludes that in the current macroeconomic uncertainty and ongoing fluctuations in the A-share market, CTA strategies are positioned as a key allocation opportunity, with their independent return curves and low correlation making them attractive for both institutional and individual investors [22]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of quantitative private equity firms, with 852 firms established by November 14, 2025, and 135 new firms founded in the last five years, representing approximately 16% of the total [2][3] - New quantitative private equity firms have shown impressive average returns of 21.11% over the past six months and 36.05% over the past year, significantly outperforming older firms established before November 14, 2020 [2][3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 14, 2025, the majority of the 135 new quantitative private equity firms were established between 2021 and 2022, accounting for nearly 90% of the total [2] - The largest segment of private equity firms falls within the 0-5 billion range, with 88 firms, while only 5 firms have surpassed the 100 billion mark [3][4] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Among the new firms, the top 10 in terms of performance over the past six months include 京盈智投, 龙吟虎啸, and 海南磊喧私募, with a minimum return threshold of ***% to qualify for the ranking [9][12] - 京盈智投 has been particularly notable, leading both the six-month and one-year performance rankings with returns of ***% [10][12] Group 3: Strategy and Location - The majority of new quantitative private equity firms focus on stock strategies, with 82 firms, while futures and derivatives strategies have 28 firms, and multi-asset strategies have 17 firms [4] - Most of these firms are located in major cities like Shanghai (57 firms), Beijing (28 firms), and Shenzhen (18 firms), indicating a concentration in key financial hubs [4] Group 4: Notable Firms and Management - The top five firms with over 100 billion in assets under management, all established in 2022, include 齐家私募, 北京正定私募, 上海睿量私募, 磐松资产, and 上海波克私募 [3][6] - 京盈智投, founded in April 2021, is led by谢黎博, who has extensive experience in quantitative investment, and focuses on futures and derivatives strategies [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the regulatory developments in quantitative trading in China's securities and futures markets, highlighting the growth and performance of quantitative CTA strategies in the private equity sector amidst market fluctuations [1][3]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced the "Securities Market Algorithmic Trading Management Measures" in 2024, marking the beginning of standardized development for quantitative trading in the stock market [1]. - The new regulations for algorithmic trading in the futures market, which have been in trial since June, will officially take effect on October 9 [1]. Performance of Quantitative CTA Strategies - Quantitative CTA strategies have gained popularity among investors due to their low correlation with stocks and bonds, especially in volatile market conditions [1]. - From 2021 to the end of 2024, quantitative CTA strategies significantly outperformed subjective long and quantitative long strategies during a turbulent market [1]. Year-to-Date Performance Comparison - As of September 19, 2023, the average return for 399 quantitative CTA products was 10.84%, while subjective long strategies averaged 34.59% and quantitative long strategies averaged 37.05% [3]. - Among private equity firms managing over 5 billion, the average return for quantitative CTA products was 7.63%, with 87.10% showing positive returns [3]. Top Performing Quantitative CTA Products - The article lists the top-performing quantitative CTA products for the year, with the leading product managed by 信弘天禾 (Xinhong Tianhe) achieving a return of ***% [4][5]. - Other notable products include those managed by 宏锡基金 (Hongxi Fund) and 洛书投资 (Luoshu Investment), which also performed well [4][5]. Performance in Different Fund Sizes - For private equity firms with assets between 20-50 billion, the average return for quantitative CTA products was 6.42%, with a positive return rate of 93.94% [6]. - In the 10-20 billion category, the average return was 11.04%, with a positive return rate of 97.56% [9]. - For firms managing 5-10 billion, the average return was 7.45%, with 84.21% showing positive returns [11]. - In the smallest category (0-5 billion), the average return was 14.15%, with 83.05% of products achieving positive returns [13]. Conclusion on Market Trends - The article emphasizes the potential for growth in the quantitative trading market in China, suggesting that it is still in a phase of rapid development with significant future opportunities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" trend in the Hangzhou futures market has led to significant drawdowns in the net value of several subjective CTA products from private equity institutions, highlighting the need for improved responsiveness to market changes despite a strong foundation in industrial fundamental analysis [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hangzhou futures market is characterized by a unique ecosystem formed since 2015, integrating "industrial capital + private equity funds + futures asset management" [1] - Major private equity firms such as Donghe Asset Management and Qiantang Yongli Asset Management have deep ties with Yong'an Futures, leveraging frontline intelligence in "warehousing-logistics-production line" [1] - The recent market changes have challenged traditional advantages, with losses attributed to a lag in responding to policy rhythms, emotional capital, and quantitative fund behaviors [1] Group 2: Performance Data - As of August 15, there are 690 futures and derivatives strategy products with performance data this year, with 79 from Hangzhou, ranking third in quantity [2] - The average return for Hangzhou products this year is 11.69%, placing them second overall, while they have shown resilience in the past month [2] - Among the 79 products in Hangzhou, the number of quantitative CTA and subjective CTA products is roughly equal, with subjective CTA strategies yielding higher average returns [2] Group 3: Strategy Breakdown - In Hangzhou, the top ten performing futures and derivatives strategy products have a high entry threshold, with subjective CTA products dominating the rankings [3] - The proportion of products achieving positive returns in the past month among subjective CTA products is 62.07%, indicating the agility of smaller private equity firms [4] - Qiantang Yongli Asset Management stands out as the only private equity firm in the 20-50 billion scale category, showcasing strong investment capabilities [4] Group 4: Institutional Insights - Eight private equity institutions in Hangzhou meet the ranking criteria, with the top three being mixed-type (subjective + quantitative) firms, reflecting the advantages of mixed strategies [4] - Junfu Investment and Qiantang Yongli Asset Management rank second and fifth respectively among 20-50 billion scale private equity firms, demonstrating robust investment styles [4] - Win Private Equity has emerged as a standout institution over the past year, advocating for counter-cyclical investments and showcasing exceptional performance in strategy and risk management [4]

Core Insights - The Hangzhou futures circle has evolved into an ecosystem characterized by "industrial capital + private equity funds + futures asset management" since its rise in 2015, with Yong'an Futures being a leading player in the national "first tier" [1] - The primary reason for the recent losses in the Hangzhou futures circle is attributed to a lag in responding to policy rhythms, emotional capital, and quantitative capital behaviors, despite its traditional advantage in obtaining frontline intelligence [1] - As of August 15, 2025, there are 690 futures and derivatives strategy products with performance displays, with 79 products from Hangzhou, ranking third in quantity [2] Performance Overview - Hangzhou's futures and derivatives strategy products have achieved an average return of 11.69% this year, ranking second, with a near one-month average return of 2.69% [2] - Among the 79 products in Hangzhou, both quantitative CTA and subjective CTA products number around 30 each, with other derivative strategies and subjective CTA strategies averaging over 16% returns, ranking in the top two [2][3] - The top 10 products in Hangzhou have a performance threshold of ***%, with 62% of subjective CTA products showing positive returns in the last month [3][5] Company Rankings - Eight private equity firms in Hangzhou have at least three qualifying products, with the top three being mixed-type (subjective + quantitative) private equity firms [8] - The top three firms by performance are: 1. Zaiying Private Equity with an average return of approximately ***% over the past year [10] 2. Junfu Investment with an average return of approximately ***% over the past year [11] 3. Qiantang Yongli Asset Management with an average return of approximately ***% over the past year [12] - Junfu Investment and Qiantang Yongli Asset Management are both in the 20-50 billion scale range, indicating significant asset management capabilities [8][12]