乳业供需平衡

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伊利“攻守兼备”:春节开门红后继续关注产业链健康度,预计乳业Q3供需平衡
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-04-30 11:26
Core Viewpoint - The company is cautiously optimistic about the dairy industry's supply-demand balance, expecting a phase of stabilization in Q3, while maintaining a focus on channel management and price control to navigate market challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply-demand imbalance in the dairy industry originated in the second half of 2021, driven by increased consumer demand and enhanced production capabilities, leading to a rapid rise in cow numbers and milk yield [2]. - The company anticipates that the willingness of upstream farms to exit the market will increase, contributing to a more balanced supply-demand situation by Q3 [2][4]. - Management believes that the recent decline in raw milk prices will lead to a more rational approach among industry partners regarding demand forecasts, reducing the volatility seen in the past [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - In Q1, the company reported a strong start with improved sales and healthy inventory levels, despite a cautious outlook on short-term demand recovery [4][5]. - The company aims to achieve a net profit margin of 9% by 2025, indicating a focus on improving profitability [4]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment generated revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.53%, with significant contributions from infant formula and adult nutrition products [5]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is actively developing new high-end products, including specialized milk powders aimed at youth growth and sleep aid, in collaboration with strategic partners [7]. - The B2B segment is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing consumer acceptance of dairy products in various food sectors [7][8]. - The company has established a solid foundation in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it has seen double-digit growth in ice cream sales [8].