2025年的中国奶粉市场，在多重变量交织中绘就了一幅"冰与火"的行业图景：一边是新生儿数量持续承 压、存量竞争日益激烈，另一边却是多家主流乳企业绩逆势回升，高端与超高端奶粉赛道增长强劲。 随着国家层面生育补贴政策首次以现金形式落地，以及消费升级趋势在低线市场持续渗透，奶粉行业在 深度调整后迎来结构性复苏。系统复盘2025年中国奶粉行业的变革与突围可以看到，奶粉销售回暖并非 偶然，而是乳企多年深耕产品、渠道与品牌的结果。 多家乳企业绩逆势回暖 高端赛道成增长引擎 2025年上半年，国内奶粉市场呈现出显著的业绩分化与整体回暖态势。以健合集团、澳优乳业、伊利等 为代表的多家乳企，在婴幼儿配方奶粉板块实现营收与利润双增，扭转了此前行业整体增速放缓甚至下 滑的局面。 伊利奶粉及奶制品业务收入同比增长14.26%，婴幼儿奶粉零售额实现双位数增长，市场份额达到 18.1%，首次跃居中国市场第一；蒙牛奶粉业务也实现2.46%的增长。 健合集团半年报显示，公司上半年营收同比增长5.2%至70.2亿元，其中婴幼儿营养与护理业务（BNC） 营收25.0亿元，同比增长2.9%。尽管BNC增速在集团三大业务中居末，但标志着该业务成功止 ...

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) showcased Aoyou's six major imported brands and 61 products, addressing precise nutritional needs throughout the life cycle, with six products making their debut at the event [1][2] - Aoyou's brand NC launched innovative probiotics targeting nasal sensitivity and emotional sleep, featuring the new "NC Relax" probiotic using the CCFM1025 strain [1] - The brand Kabrita introduced a new high-calcium probiotic goat milk powder aimed at the elderly for bone health and digestive needs [1] - The report "Feeding Trends to Know: 2026 Infant Formula Feeding Trends" released by Kabrita indicates that premiumization and functionality are core consumer demands, with goat milk powder gaining traction due to its absorption and low sensitivity advantages [1] - Aoyou holds 11 factories globally, with three in China, six in the Netherlands, and two in Australia, selling products in over 60 countries and regions, showing strong overseas market performance [1] - Aoyou's international business revenue is projected to grow by 68.2% in 2024 and 65.7% in the first half of 2025, driven by strategic breakthroughs in the Middle East, North America, and the CIS [1] Industry Impact - Aoyou has participated in the CIIE for eight consecutive years, leveraging the event as a platform to enhance its global image and showcase the international influence of China's dairy industry [2] - The CIIE has facilitated a shorter time-to-market for Aoyou's products, reduced operational costs, and provided opportunities for finding excellent partners and expanding business scope [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Yili Group in the first three quarters of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and a net profit of 10.103 billion yuan, up 18.73% [1] Business Performance - Yili's liquid milk segment remains the industry leader, generating revenue of 54.939 billion yuan, with products like organic milk becoming popular in the gifting market [1] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in infant formula, achieving the highest market share in China for the first time [3][4] Anti-Cyclical Strategies - Yili's approach to anti-cyclicality involves optimizing both profit quality and business structure rather than merely expanding scale [1][2] - The deep processing of milk is highlighted as a key strategy to convert surplus raw milk into high-value products, enhancing the value chain and addressing consumer demand for personalized products [2] Technological Innovation - Yili has implemented smart farming technologies, resulting in over a 10% increase in milk production per cow and a 12% reduction in labor costs [5][6] - The company has completed the digital transformation of all its factories, enabling real-time data collection and analysis to ensure product quality [6] Industry Collaboration - Yili has supported its partner farms by providing financial assistance totaling 185.215 billion yuan and technical support, significantly reducing operational costs [8] - The company has established a strategic partnership with Tongrentang to explore functional food markets, leading to a 45% year-on-year increase in revenue from functional dairy products [9] Future Outlook - Yili plans to focus on deep processing of dairy, functional foods, and health beverages, with an annual R&D investment growth of at least 20% over the next five years [9]

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for Ausnutria (01717), projecting revenue growth and significant profit increases from 2025 to 2027 [1][2] Financial Projections - Expected revenue for Ausnutria in 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 7.67 billion, 7.88 billion, and 8.04 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.6%, 2.8%, and 2.1% respectively [1] - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 310 million, 340 million, and 390 million CNY, with growth rates of 21.0%, 8.0%, and 15.0% respectively [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.18, 0.19, and 0.22 CNY [1] Market Performance - The overseas market has become the second growth engine for Ausnutria, with revenue growth of 54.2% in the Middle East and 138.7% in North America during the first half of 2025 [1][2] Strategic Initiatives - The company initiated an internal code system upgrade and inventory adjustment in the first half of 2025, which, while reducing short-term shipments, improved product freshness and channel transparency [2] - Ausnutria is focusing on deepening its international strategy, leveraging its dual focus on cow and goat milk products to drive growth [2] - The goat milk powder business is making significant strides in overseas markets, with the brand Kabrita being the first goat milk infant formula approved by the US FDA, now available in Walmart and other channels in North America [2] Product Innovation - The company is enhancing its "milk powder + nutrition products" strategy, improving global supply chain management for efficiency and product innovation [2] - New nutrition products like Nutrition Care and Ai Yisen are being introduced, supported by strong research capabilities, contributing to category breakthroughs and injecting new momentum into the company [2] Resilience and Growth Outlook - Ausnutria demonstrates strong corporate resilience, with expectations to maintain steady growth in a complex and changing market environment, driven by rapid overseas market growth, synergies between cow and goat milk products, and a robust nutrition product segment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in China's infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Positioning - Yili claims the overall market leader position in infant formula, including both cow and goat milk formulas, with a market share of 18.1%, up by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Feihe emphasizes its position as the leading single brand in the infant formula market, maintaining this status for six consecutive years [1][3]. - Yili's revenue from milk powder and dairy products grew by 14.26% year-on-year to 16.578 billion yuan, with infant formula sales showing double-digit growth [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Feihe's revenue declined by 9.36% to 9.151 billion yuan in the first half of the year [3]. - Yili's acquisition of Ausnutria Dairy has contributed to its sales figures, but the actual impact of Ausnutria's sales on Yili's performance is less significant than anticipated, as Ausnutria's core goat milk brand sales fell by 8.9% to 1.38 billion yuan [4][5]. - The sales decline of Feihe has highlighted the competitive landscape, with both companies having a narrow market share gap [6]. Group 3: Market Trends - The infant formula market in China may face contraction due to a significant decline in marriage registrations, indicating a potential decrease in newborn numbers [7]. - Despite challenges, the infant formula market remains a lucrative sector, with high-end products dominating, driven by increased consumer spending on children [9]. - Domestic dairy companies are well-positioned to benefit from this consumption upgrade, with Yili and Feihe having superior milk sources compared to EU standards [11].

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the Chinese infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Positioning - Yili claims the number one position in the overall infant formula market, including both cow and goat milk formulas, with a market share of 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Feihe asserts its dominance as the leading single brand in the infant formula market, maintaining this position for six consecutive years, although its revenue declined by 9.36% to 9.151 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The difference in rankings arises from Yili's inclusion of sales from Aoyou Dairy, which it acquired in 2022, thereby combining the sales of two listed companies [1][2]. Group 2: Sales Performance - Aoyou Dairy's core product, the goat milk formula brand Jiabei Aite, saw a sales decline of 8.9% to 1.38 billion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating that its contribution to Yili's overall sales is less significant than anticipated [2]. - Despite Yili's overall sales growth, the primary driver remains the double-digit growth in its infant formula segment, while Aoyou plays a more auxiliary role [2]. - Feihe's sales decline is attributed to factors such as delays in the approval and launch of ultra-premium new products and proactive inventory reduction [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - The Chinese infant formula market may face contraction due to a more than 20% decline in marriage registrations in 2024, suggesting a potential decrease in newborn numbers [2]. - However, the market is not necessarily losing its attractiveness, as government childcare subsidies may lead to a rebound in birth rates [3]. - The high-end segment of the infant formula market is becoming dominant, indicating a trend towards consumer spending upgrades, which presents significant profit opportunities for domestic dairy companies [3]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Domestic dairy companies like Yili and Feihe are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing consumption upgrade, with superior milk sources that exceed EU standards [3]. - Significant investments in research and development by domestic dairy firms have led to comparable product quality with international brands, particularly in the infant formula sector [3]. - The fluctuations in market rankings may actually be beneficial for the industry, fostering competition and driving progress [3].

Core Viewpoint - The competition in China's infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [1][3][4]. Company Performance - Yili's market share in the overall infant formula sector, including both cow and goat milk formulas, has reached 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Yili's revenue from milk powder and dairy products grew by 14.26% year-on-year to 16.578 billion [3]. - Feihe maintains its position as the leading single brand in the infant formula market, although its revenue declined by 9.36% to 9.151 billion [4]. Market Dynamics - The difference in rankings arises from the fact that Yili's figures include sales from Aoyou Dairy, which it acquired in 2022, while Feihe's data is based solely on its brand [4][5]. - Aoyou Dairy's sales have not significantly boosted Yili's performance, as its core goat milk brand saw a decline of 8.9% in sales to 1.38 billion [5][6]. - The market share gap between Yili and Feihe is narrow, with Euromonitor projecting Feihe's share at 17.5% and Yili's at 16.3% for 2024 [7]. Future Outlook - The infant formula market in China may face contraction due to a projected decline of over 20% in marriage registrations, indicating a potential decrease in newborn numbers [8]. - However, the market is not deemed unprofitable, as government subsidies for child-rearing may lead to a rebound in birth rates [9]. - The high-end segment of the infant formula market is growing, with parents increasingly willing to spend on premium products [10][11]. - Domestic dairy companies are well-positioned to benefit from this consumption upgrade, with Yili and Feihe having superior milk sources compared to EU standards [12]. - The competition in the market is seen as a positive force for industry progress, suggesting that fluctuations in rankings may indicate a dynamic and evolving market [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The competition in China's infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [2][3][4]. Company Performance - Yili has achieved the highest market share in the overall infant formula market, including both cow and goat milk formulas, with a market share of 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Yili's revenue from milk powder and dairy products grew by 14.26% year-on-year to 16.578 billion yuan, with infant formula sales experiencing double-digit growth [3]. - Feihe, on the other hand, reported a revenue decline of 9.36% to 9.151 billion yuan in the same period, despite maintaining its position as the leading single brand in the market [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The difference in rankings arises from the fact that Yili's figures include sales from Aoyou Dairy, which it acquired in 2022, while Feihe's data reflects its standalone brand performance [4][6]. - Aoyou Dairy's performance has not significantly bolstered Yili's sales, as its core goat milk brand, Jiabei Aite, saw a sales decline of 8.9% to 1.38 billion yuan [5][6]. - The market share gap between Yili and Feihe is narrow, with Euromonitor data indicating Feihe's market share at 17.5% and Yili at 16.3% for 2024 [7]. Future Outlook - The infant formula market in China may face contraction due to a significant decline in marriage registrations, which is likely to lead to a decrease in newborn numbers [8]. - However, the market is not deemed unprofitable, as government childcare subsidies may lead to a potential increase in birth rates, and parents are increasingly willing to spend on high-quality products [9]. - The domestic infant formula market is characterized as a key battleground for consumer upgrades, indicating substantial profit potential [10].

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group's half-year report shows strong performance with revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, and a net profit of 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q2, Yili's revenue grew by 5.77%, with net profit increasing by 44.65% year-on-year, indicating a clear profitability turning point [2] - The overall gross margin for Yili reached 36.21%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 11.33%, marking a historical high [3] Business Segments - Yili's liquid milk segment generated revenue of 36.126 billion yuan, maintaining the largest market share in the industry; the milk powder and dairy products segment achieved 16.578 billion yuan in revenue, up 14.26%, also leading the market [2] - The diversified business now accounts for over 40% of Yili's revenue, with high gross margins contributing to overall profitability [3] Market Trends - The dairy industry is expected to see growth, with structural opportunities in low-temperature milk and rural markets [5] - Yili is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends due to its strong brand, distribution channels, and supply chain advantages [5] Future Outlook - The stabilization of raw milk prices is anticipated to lead to a new growth phase for Yili, with expectations of a return to a state of volume and price increase [6] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing dairy production are expected to further support the industry's recovery [6]

Core Viewpoint - The latest half-year report for 2025 reveals the strong growth momentum of Yili Group, highlighting its robust performance across various product categories and successful international expansion [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yili achieved revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses reached 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78%, setting a new historical high [4][6]. - The company maintains its position as the leading player in the Asian dairy industry, with a continued expansion of its competitive advantage [4]. Business Structure Optimization - Yili's business structure is continuously optimizing, with stable growth in its core liquid milk segment and significant market share gains in milk powder and cheese, contributing to the "second growth curve" [3][6]. - The revenue from milk powder and dairy products has increased from 11% of total revenue in 2019 to 27% in the first half of 2025, indicating a diversification and balance in product offerings [6]. Product Innovation and Development - Yili has launched several innovative products, including various types of tea and low-sodium mineral water for infants, which have received high market recognition and contributed to double-digit growth in the water beverage segment [7]. - The company has established a diverse product matrix, with leading brands in various categories such as liquid milk, infant formula, and ice cream, focusing on specific consumer segments and scenarios [7]. International Expansion - Yili's internationalization efforts are accelerating, with brands like "Jinlingguan" entering markets in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, and a notable presence at the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup [8][12]. - The overseas cold drink business has seen a revenue increase of 14.4%, while the infant goat milk powder segment has grown by 65.7% [8]. Global Supply Chain and Sustainability - The company is enhancing its global supply chain network, achieving efficient coordination between domestic and international markets, particularly in regions like Oceania and Europe [10][13]. - Yili is committed to building a sustainable ecosystem, with initiatives like the "Zero Carbon Alliance" and the "Global Low Water Footprint Initiative," which have seen significant participation from industry partners [15]. Research and Development - Yili has established a global innovation network with 15 innovation centers, collaborating with renowned universities and research institutions to drive advancements in nutrition, food safety, and sustainable packaging [15][16]. - The company emphasizes local adaptation in product development, tailoring offerings to meet regional tastes and preferences, which enhances brand resilience in international markets [18].