如此市场环境下，乳业巨头纷纷承压。 第三季度，伊利营收同比下滑1.70%至286.31亿元。在上半年，蒙牛营收同比下滑6.9%至415.67亿元。 21世纪经济报道记者 贺泓源 市场波动下，乳业市场迎来变局之年。 客观上，这一市场还在收缩。据欧睿数据，2024年我国液态奶行业规模为3442亿元，对应 2011-2021年 CAGR为7.2%。此后，液态奶行业需求阶段性承压，2022-2024年CAGR为-4.2%。尼尔森IQ数据显示， 在2025年9月，乳品全渠道销售额同比下滑16.8%。 落地到区域乳企，则是分化加剧。 三季度，光明乳业液态奶收入同比下滑8.44%至35.40亿元。三元股份液态奶收入同比下滑13%至9.24亿 元。新乳业、君乐宝却保持扩张。 整个市场都在调整期。 显然，伊利在市场起伏中相对稳住了身位。 在2025年前三季度，伊利营收同比增长1.71%至905.64亿元；归母净利润同比下滑4.07%至104.26亿元。 伊利营收下滑，主要受到液体乳市场波动影响。前三季度，伊利液体乳收入同比下滑4.49%至549.39亿 元，其中第三季度液体乳收入同比下滑8.83%至188.1亿元。 背后是，市 ...

伊利股份 20251225 请简要介绍一下公司 2025 年前三季度的经营表现。 2025 年前三季度，公司展现了较强的经营韧性，实现营业收入 905.6 亿元， 同比增长 1.7%。液态奶方面，经历了 2024 年的渠道调整后，产品新鲜度、 经销商盈利能力和渠道终端掌控力均有提升，渠道库存维持在较低水平。尽管 需求端仍面临压力，但液奶市场份额保持稳定，常温酸奶市占率提升至 70%。 乳饮料凭借新品"嚼柠檬"实现正增长，低温液奶逆势增长。奶粉和奶制品业 务收入实现双位数增长，其中婴配粉市场份额跃居全国第一。成人营养品和奶 酪业务依托节庆需求和 B 端渠道拓展，实现双位数增长。冷饮业务前三季度同 比增长 13%。 公司对 2025 年四季度及未来的展望如何？ 四季度是乳制品行业淡季，公司主要工作聚焦于 10 月双节过后产品新鲜度优 化和渠道库存调整，为 2026 年春节备货做准备。从全年看，公司希望整体收 婴配粉业务 2025 年实现双位数增长，市场份额提升。线上业务增长超 过 20%，通过推出添加乳铁蛋白的高端新品实现高端化升级，量价齐升。 成人营养品业务主要集中在成人奶粉领域，通过与同仁堂合作推出功能 性成 ...

液态奶是大众最熟悉的乳制品品类，但当前陷入传统产品过剩、特色产品供给不足的困境。 市场的集中度也较高，伊利、蒙牛等头部企业凭借渠道和规模优势稳住主导地位，而中小乳企因规模化不足陷入业绩下滑甚至亏损的困境。 同时，液态奶市场的销售增长正在逐渐放缓，常温奶的市场份额虽依旧庞大，但已经不再是乳企唯一的增长引擎，头部乳企正逐步降低液态奶收入占比，转 向奶酪、奶粉、冷饮等更高附加值的业务。 有趣的是，伊利忙着向第二曲线转移，"热火朝天"卖着奶粉、奶酪及冷饮，例如以金领冠品牌的有机婴幼儿奶粉为代表，并涵盖悠滋小羊、佳贝艾特等羊奶 粉产品，同时在酸奶品类中除畅轻外，还包括伊利草原酸奶等特色产品及冷饮业务以巧乐兹为主导品牌等。 而蒙牛则另辟蹊径，不仅凭借妙可蓝多在奶酪赛道站稳脚跟，更让旗下优益C拿下首款乳酸菌"健字号"，将普通饮品升级为具有保健品属性的健康产品，在 垂直领域开辟新方向。 那么，伊利、蒙牛都已经向更加垂直领域去精进，到底谁能率先走出差异化路径来？ 01 第二曲线比重上升，伊利对市场敏锐度很高 其实，常温液态奶一直都是是中国乳业最大的摇钱树，其凭借其长保质期、便于运输的特性，让伊利和蒙牛建立了覆盖全国的渠道网络， ...

中金公司研报指出，展望下一个五年，伊利股份在液奶需求增长常态化背景下提出聚力成长战略，成长 重新成为公司战略核心，旨在录得每年高于GDP及行业增速的收入增长。分拆看，基石品类如成人营 养、液奶、奶粉继续增长，扩大领先优势，预计液奶26 年有望率先于行业实现增长，奶粉目标为金领 冠单品行业份额第一，整体集团份额突破25%；低温品类提升盈利能力。未来5 年公司收入在追求高于 GDP及行业增长的同时，亦希望在9%的利润率基础上实现利润率提的持续提升，主要通过业务结构优 化聚焦高价值赛道、供应链效率控制、资源精准匹配及费效比提升等方式。同时我们预计未来几年原奶 价格有望在今年低位上实现企稳或小幅提升，上游供需趋于平衡利于公司提升白奶市场份额，改善报表 盈利质量。明年预计公司在当前较低基数下有望稳中向好，在股息率提升背景下，我们测算26 年股息 率4.7%，深度布局价值凸显。维持目标价32元，对应18/17倍25/26年PE和8%上行空间，维持"跑赢行 业"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The 8th China International Import Expo was held from November 5 to 10, showcasing Yili Group's commitment to high-quality dairy products and global partnerships [1] - Yili's infant formula products, including Jinlingguan, received significant attention during the expo, highlighting the brand's strength in the market [1][2] Group 1: Event Highlights - Yili Group launched the "2025 China Dairy Quality Creation Conference" and hosted an interactive quality journey at the expo [1] - The event featured a tiered exhibition design, symbolizing Yili's ambition to transition from catching up to surpassing competitors [1] - The successful event demonstrated Yili's strategy of building a "global health ecosystem" through collaboration with international partners [1] Group 2: Product Innovations - Yili's Jinlingguan infant formula incorporates advanced nutritional components, such as 360mg/100g lactoferrin and six times active protein OPN, providing enhanced nutritional protection for infants [2] - The establishment of the Oceania Dairy Industry Base in New Zealand, with a total investment of 3 billion yuan, positions Yili as a leader in integrated infant formula production [2] - Strategic partnerships with prestigious institutions, including Cambridge University and Beijing University, support Yili's research in maternal and infant nutrition [2][3] Group 3: Future Directions - Yili aims to enhance its research, sourcing, and production capabilities to provide diverse nutritional solutions for families [3] - The company is committed to driving high-quality development in China's infant formula industry through continuous innovation [3]

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (Yili) reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.426 billion yuan, with a significant growth in net profit excluding non-recurring items, which surpassed 10 billion yuan for the first time, achieving a year-on-year increase of 18.73% [1][4][6] Financial Performance - Yili's revenue growth reflects its strong market position, with a revenue scale of 90.564 billion yuan, demonstrating resilience amid fluctuations in raw material prices and diverse consumer demands [4][6] - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 10.103 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone in its transition from scale expansion to high-quality development, driven by an increase in high-margin products and operational efficiency [4][8] - Yili announced a cash dividend plan of 3.036 billion yuan, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns, with a total dividend payout of 58.566 billion yuan since its listing, maintaining a dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% for six consecutive years [4][6] Market Position and Growth Strategy - Yili's core business in liquid milk remains a leader in the industry, with significant market share in both ambient and low-temperature dairy products, showcasing its ability to adapt to market demands [7][8] - The company has diversified its product offerings, achieving a revenue of 24.261 billion yuan from its milk powder and dairy products segment, with a year-on-year growth of 13.74%, solidifying its leading position in the Chinese market [8][9] - Yili's global expansion is accelerating, with successful entries into markets such as Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, contributing to its overall growth strategy [9][10] Innovation and Consumer Engagement - Yili focuses on product innovation that aligns with consumer needs, exploring new models that integrate health services into various consumption scenarios, thereby enhancing its market presence [10][11] - The company has developed emotional marketing strategies that resonate with consumers, positioning its products as integral to daily life and fostering a strong connection with its customer base [10][11] - Yili's commitment to quality and innovation not only strengthens its competitive edge but also drives the overall advancement of the dairy industry in China, moving towards higher value chains [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Yili is demonstrating resilient growth, with significant revenue and profit increases despite challenging market conditions [1][4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yili achieved revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring items, exceeded 10.103 billion yuan, marking an 18.73% year-on-year growth [1] Shareholder Returns - Yili announced a cash dividend plan totaling 3.036 billion yuan, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3] - Since its listing, Yili has implemented 25 dividend distributions, totaling 58.566 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% for six consecutive years [3] Business Segments - Yili's liquid milk segment remains the industry leader, while its Ambrosial brand continues to dominate the ambient yogurt market [5][10] - The infant formula segment has seen significant growth, with revenue reaching 24.261 billion yuan, a 13.74% increase year-on-year, and it holds the largest market share in China [5][6] Strategic Initiatives - Yili's long-term strategy includes achieving the top position in the infant formula market by 2025, supported by product innovation and strategic acquisitions [6] - The company is enhancing its research capabilities in maternal milk and has launched new premium products to strengthen its market position [6] Global Expansion - Yili is accelerating its globalization efforts, with successful entries into markets such as Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore [11] - The company is focusing on building a multi-directional capability in its global strategy, integrating high-quality resources and localizing operations to enhance brand resilience [11] Non-Dairy Business Growth - Yili's non-dairy segment, including the Yike H2O brand, is experiencing a 70% growth rate [12] - The company is exploring new health service models and partnerships with well-known brands to expand its market reach [12]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Yili Group in the first three quarters of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and a net profit of 10.103 billion yuan, up 18.73% [1] Business Performance - Yili's liquid milk segment remains the industry leader, generating revenue of 54.939 billion yuan, with products like organic milk becoming popular in the gifting market [1] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in infant formula, achieving the highest market share in China for the first time [3][4] Anti-Cyclical Strategies - Yili's approach to anti-cyclicality involves optimizing both profit quality and business structure rather than merely expanding scale [1][2] - The deep processing of milk is highlighted as a key strategy to convert surplus raw milk into high-value products, enhancing the value chain and addressing consumer demand for personalized products [2] Technological Innovation - Yili has implemented smart farming technologies, resulting in over a 10% increase in milk production per cow and a 12% reduction in labor costs [5][6] - The company has completed the digital transformation of all its factories, enabling real-time data collection and analysis to ensure product quality [6] Industry Collaboration - Yili has supported its partner farms by providing financial assistance totaling 185.215 billion yuan and technical support, significantly reducing operational costs [8] - The company has established a strategic partnership with Tongrentang to explore functional food markets, leading to a 45% year-on-year increase in revenue from functional dairy products [9] Future Outlook - Yili plans to focus on deep processing of dairy, functional foods, and health beverages, with an annual R&D investment growth of at least 20% over the next five years [9]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group has demonstrated strong profit growth and a stable dividend policy, reflecting confidence in future cash flow and long-term profitability [3][12]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yili achieved total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.103 billion yuan, up 18.73% [1][14]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.036 billion yuan, showcasing its commitment to shareholder returns [1][12]. Business Segments - Yili leads the liquid milk sector with revenue of 54.939 billion yuan, while its milk powder and dairy products segment reported revenue of 24.261 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 13.74% year-on-year [6][10]. - The infant formula segment continues to dominate the market, maintaining a leading market share and achieving double-digit revenue growth [6][8]. Strategic Initiatives - Yili's long-term strategy focuses on innovation and product development, with recent advancements in core nutritional areas such as HMO and lactoferrin [8][19]. - Collaborations with traditional medicine brands have led to the creation of new health-oriented dairy products, which have seen substantial sales growth [8][19]. Dividend Policy and Cash Flow - Yili has a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders, with a total dividend payout exceeding 58.5 billion yuan since its listing and maintaining a dividend payout ratio above 70% for six consecutive years [12][14]. - The company's net cash flow from operating activities reached 6.436 billion yuan in Q3 2025, more than double its net profit for the same period, indicating robust cash generation capabilities [13][14]. Resilience and Growth Strategy - Yili's diversified business model, comprising cash cow (liquid milk), growth (milk powder, ice cream), and emerging (health drinks, cheese) segments, provides resilience against market fluctuations [16][19]. - The company's global expansion strategy has evolved from merely exporting products to establishing brands and systems in international markets, contributing to significant growth in key categories [17][19].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resilience of Yili Group in the dairy industry, showcasing revenue growth and a significant increase in non-recurring net profit despite a challenging market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yili achieved total revenue of 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.426 billion yuan, a decline of 4.07% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit reached 10.103 billion yuan, marking an 18.73% increase [2] - This is the first time Yili's non-recurring net profit has surpassed 10 billion yuan in the first three quarters, indicating improved core profitability and high-quality development of its main business [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The strong growth in non-recurring net profit is attributed to product structure optimization, an increase in the proportion of high-margin products, and refined cost control [4] - The gross margin improved by 0.52 percentage points to 35.32%, reflecting the company's pricing power and cost control advantages in high-end and functional products [4] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.98 percentage points to 18.28%, while the management expense ratio was 3.84% and the R&D expense ratio was 0.69%, indicating stable overall expense ratios [4]. Business Segments Performance - Yili's liquid milk segment remains the industry leader, generating revenue of 54.939 billion yuan in the first three quarters [5] - The milk powder segment achieved revenue of 24.261 billion yuan, a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 13.74%, maintaining the top market share in China [5] - The ice cream business also performed well, with revenue of 9.428 billion yuan, a 13% increase, continuing its leadership in the industry for thirty consecutive years [5]. Global Expansion - Yili is accelerating its global expansion, with brands like Jinlingguan and Cremo entering markets in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, and the JinDian brand launching in Singapore [6] - The overseas business showed strong performance, particularly in core categories like ice cream and infant goat milk powder, becoming a key driver for global business expansion [6]. Dividend Policy - Yili announced a mid-year dividend plan, marking the first time in its history to implement such a distribution, responding to regulatory encouragement for companies to reward investors [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.48 yuan per share, totaling approximately 3.036 billion yuan, which accounts for 29.12% of its net profit for the first three quarters [7] - With a projected dividend yield exceeding 6%, Yili ranks among the top dividend-paying companies in the A-share market [7][8].