Core Insights - The core message from Powell's speech at Jackson Hole is not unconditional easing but a careful balancing act between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is under pressure, with low unemployment rates juxtaposed against a labor market showing signs of strain [2][3] - Powell indicated that the current policy rate is closer to neutral, allowing for cautious actions, but warned that monetary policy is not on a predetermined path [2][3] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is experiencing a "peculiar balance" with both supply and demand slowing significantly, partly due to tightened immigration policies [3][4] - Powell highlighted the rising risks of job losses and increased unemployment rates, suggesting that any rate cuts would be defensive rather than indicative of a strong economy [4] Group 3: Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a concern, with economists worried that tariffs from the Trump administration could elevate prices in the coming months [5] - Powell seems to lean towards ignoring the impact of tariffs, although he acknowledges the need to monitor inflation expectations closely [5] Group 4: Market Reactions - The market's enthusiastic response to Powell's speech may have been exaggerated, reflecting prior expectations of a more hawkish stance [6] - Powell's remarks did not yield to political pressures for significant rate cuts, indicating a commitment to data-driven decision-making [6]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference is interpreted as a signal for potential interest rate cuts in September, but deeper analysis reveals a complex balancing act between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation risks [1][2]. Group 1: Dual Mandate Challenges - The current economic environment presents a more complicated scenario for policymakers compared to the clear objectives during the inflation peak of 9.1% in 2022 [2]. - Powell emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of promoting full employment and maintaining price stability, indicating that the path to potential rate cuts may be slower and more uncertain than market expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Labor Market Risks - A key point often overlooked is that potential rate cuts may stem from concerns over economic deterioration rather than a strong economy [4]. - Powell noted a "peculiar balance" in the labor market, with both supply and demand significantly slowing, partly due to tightened immigration policies, which raises the risk of job losses and increased unemployment [4][6]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Despite worries about the labor market, inflation risks remain, with economists concerned that tariffs from the Trump administration could raise prices in the coming months [6]. - Powell seems to lean towards ignoring the impact of tariffs, but he cautioned against assuming that inflation expectations will remain stable, acknowledging the potential for inflationary pressures [6][7]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The market's reaction to Powell's speech may have been exaggerated, possibly due to prior expectations of a more hawkish stance, leading to position adjustments [7]. - Powell's remarks did not yield to political pressure for significant rate cuts, indicating a careful approach to navigating current economic challenges [7].

Group 1 - The market experienced significant liquidation, with over 160,000 accounts liquidated and a total of more than $800 million cleared in the past 24 hours, indicating a volatile market environment typical of a bull market [2][3] - The majority of liquidations were from long positions, suggesting that market sentiment remains unstable and that traders are facing challenges in managing leverage effectively [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September is high, at around 85%, which is generally favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin [4] Group 2 - Bitcoin is currently at a critical price level around $113,000, with significant resistance at $114,500 to $116,000 and support at $110,000 to $108,000 [6][8] - Ethereum is noted to be more volatile than Bitcoin, with a need for cautious trading as it has shown a tendency for sharp price movements [10] - The liquidation map indicates that the strongest psychological support for Bitcoin is at $110,000, with potential for significant liquidations if this level is breached [14] Group 3 - ETF data is highlighted as a key indicator for assessing market trends, with recent outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggesting a shift in institutional sentiment [15][18] - The recent trend shows a net outflow of $523 million from Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a potential weakening in institutional demand [18] - Ethereum ETFs have also seen significant outflows, but there is an emerging trend of net inflows, suggesting a complex market response to price movements [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes typically do not reveal much new information but reinforce previously disclosed information [1] - The overall sentiment of the committee during the July meeting was hawkish, at least compared to market expectations, as indicated by Powell's press conference [1] - Following the release of the employment report on August 1, more officials expressed an openness to the possibility of a rate cut in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, but various economic indicators suggest that a rate cut is not guaranteed [1] Group 1 - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that inflation is expected to rebound in the third quarter [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise moderately [1] - The impact of extended tariffs in August is expected to lead to mild price increases [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing likelihood that former President Trump may intervene with the Federal Reserve, potentially accelerating the rate cut process [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "can cut or not cut" phase, indicating that confirmation of a September rate cut requires more data [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on a potential interest rate cut in September, stating it is too early to assert whether the Fed will lower the federal funds rate as the financial markets expect [1][4][10] - Current interest rates are deemed "moderately restrictive," with inflation slightly above the 2% target, and the labor market remains strong with low unemployment [10][14][29] - The Fed is prepared to adjust its policy stance based on upcoming economic data and the balance of risks, with significant data expected before the September meeting [11][30][46] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Activity - Inflation has significantly decreased from its mid-2022 peak but remains slightly above the 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [6][14] - Service inflation has slowed significantly, while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs that have begun to impact prices [6][14][19] - Economic activity has shown signs of slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with GDP growth for the first half of the year at approximately 1.2% compared to 2.5% the previous year [4][13][36] Group 3: Labor Market - The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment rates low and indicators similar to those from a year ago, despite a slowdown in job growth [5][40] - Wage growth is slowing but still outpaces inflation, indicating a stable labor market overall [5][14] - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market for potential downtrends, as both labor demand and supply are decreasing [40][41] Group 4: Tariffs and Their Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still being assessed, with the process of price transmission expected to be slower than previously anticipated [8][9][19] - There is a reasonable assumption that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but there is also a risk that these effects could become more persistent [8][9] - The Fed is committed to using its tools to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into sustained inflation [9][20] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Fed will continue to evaluate all evidence and data to determine the appropriate policy stance, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks [7][30][46] - The upcoming months will provide critical data that could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates, with a focus on achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [28][30][46] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of timing in policy adjustments to avoid unnecessary harm to the labor market while addressing inflation concerns [20][30]

Group 1 - The core message from Powell's speech indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 63% to 45.7% following his comments [1][3] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth, particularly in consumer spending and real estate, while asserting that the economy remains in a stable state [3] - His remarks on inflation suggest a complex stance, stating that the process of inflation decline is halfway complete, yet warning that tariffs could increase commodity prices, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is now prioritizing "risk balance," meaning that if the economy continues to weaken, a rate cut is likely, but if inflation rises unexpectedly, they may reconsider [4] - Upcoming CPI and non-farm payroll data will be critical in determining the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with a target inflation rate of below 2.8% being a key indicator [4] - The market's reaction to Powell's speech reflects a broader uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of data as the true "referee" in the Fed's decision-making process [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell stated that no decision has been made regarding a rate cut in September, which has led to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 4.6 basis points, reaching 4.372% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, particularly whether Jerome Powell will hint at a rate cut in September [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Divisions - There is a growing split among Federal Reserve officials about the future direction of monetary policy [1] - Some members advocate for a cautious approach, while others push for immediate action to address economic concerns [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Speculation - Market speculation is rising about the possibility of a rate cut in September, influenced by recent economic data [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring Powell's upcoming statements for any indications of a shift in policy [1]

Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing weakness, with potential for upward movement despite current downward pressure [1] - Event-driven trading is intensifying, leading to a countdown of long and short positions [1] - The FOMC meeting may reveal hints for a potential interest rate cut in September, influencing market dynamics [1] Market Analysis - Daily RSI divergence is noted, indicating a possible turning point in the market [1] - The VIX index is approaching a critical level, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility [1] - A significant macroeconomic week is anticipated, which could trigger fluctuations in gold and silver trading [1]