Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that in 2025, the overall consumer price index for residents is expected to remain stable compared to the previous year [1] - The producer price index for industrial producers has decreased by 2.6%, while the purchasing price index for industrial producers has declined by 3.0% [1] - The producer price index for agricultural products has seen a decrease of 3.7% [1] Group 2 - In December, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, only 6 cities saw an increase in new residential property prices month-on-month, while 58 cities experienced a decline [1] - For second-hand residential property prices, all 70 cities reported a month-on-month decrease [1] - Year-on-year, only 5 cities reported an increase in new residential property prices, while 65 cities saw a decline; similarly, all 70 cities reported a year-on-year decrease in second-hand residential property prices [1] Group 3 - By the end of the year, the national foreign exchange reserves stood at 335.79 billion USD, an increase of 15.55 billion USD compared to the end of the previous year [1] - The average exchange rate for the year was 1 USD to 7.1429 CNY, reflecting a depreciation of 0.3% compared to the previous year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term "oscillating" rating for the treasury bond market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's social financing scale in January 2026 increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the significant increase in government bond net financing. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, also exceeding market expectations but with a year - on - year decrease. The overall inflation level in January showed a mild recovery, and the PMI indicators indicated a moderately weak economy. The Ministry of Finance will ensure that the overall expenditure remains stable, and the central bank has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.04%, while the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On February 14, the central bank conducted 38 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On February 14, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose slightly. DR001's weighted average was 1.31% (previous trading day: 1.25%), and DR007's weighted average was 1.50% (previous trading day: 1.41%) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On February 14, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated slightly. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.35 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.74 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.29 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.20 BP to 2.25% [1] - **Social Financing and Credit Data**: In January 2026, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, 317.8 billion yuan less year - on - year. The RMB loans in January increased by 4.71 trillion yuan. At the end of January, M2 balance was 347.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and M1 balance was 117.97 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [1] - **Real Estate Market**: In January, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points. The second - hand housing prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - **International News**: On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was illegal. Trump then announced a 10% import tariff on global goods, which was later raised to 15%. The US GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 1.4%, lower than expected. The 2025 annual GDP growth was 2.2%, lower than 2024. The core PCE price index in December 2025 showed inflation pressure. The US manufacturing and service PMI in February 2026 showed a slowdown in business activity [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's social financing scale in January 2026 exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the increase in government bond net financing. The RMB loans in the credit caliber also exceeded expectations but decreased year - on - year. The inflation level in January showed a mild recovery, and the PMI indicators indicated a moderately weak economy. The government will maintain a stable fiscal policy, and the central bank has room for monetary policy adjustment. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in major cities, indicating a continued downward trend in the real estate market [1] Group 1: Price Changes in First-Tier Cities - Second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Specific declines in major cities include Beijing at 1.3%, Shanghai at 0.6%, Guangzhou at 1.0%, and Shenzhen at 0.6% [1] Group 2: Price Changes in Second- and Third-Tier Cities - Second-hand residential sales prices in second- and third-tier cities also saw a month-on-month decline of 0.7%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in major cities for October 2025, indicating a continued downward trend in the real estate market [1] Group 1: Price Changes in First-tier Cities - Second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Specific declines in major cities include Beijing at 1.1%, Shanghai at 0.9%, Guangzhou at 0.9%, and Shenzhen at 0.9% [1] Group 2: Price Changes in Second-tier and Third-tier Cities - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline in second-hand residential sales prices of 0.6%, with the decline also narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Third-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.7% in second-hand residential sales prices, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1]

Core Viewpoint - In August, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 1.0%, consistent with the previous month [1] Group 1: First-tier Cities - The sales prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.2%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [1] Group 2: Second-tier Cities - The sales prices in second-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 3: Third-tier Cities - The sales prices in third-tier cities decreased by 0.5%, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month [1]

Core Viewpoint - In August, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, with the rate of decline widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Summary by Category First-tier Cities - The sales prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 3.1%, 2.6%, 6.2%, and 1.9% respectively [1] Second and Third-tier Cities - The sales prices in second-tier cities fell by 5.2%, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 6.0%, with both categories experiencing a narrowing of the decline by 0.4 percentage points [1]