1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in January this year will decrease compared to December last year, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in January will narrow compared to December last year [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. In 2025, the national consumer prices were flat compared to the previous year. Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2][7] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, non-food prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and service prices were flat month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2][8] - **Eight major categories**: In December, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.2% month-on-month, housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, transportation and communication prices were flat month-on-month, medical care prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices were flat month-on-month, daily necessities and services prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and other supplies and services increased by 2.8% month-on-month [9] - **Impact factors**: The increase in the year-on-year increase of food prices in December was an important factor driving the relatively large year-on-year increase of CPI in December. The month-on-month increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy by 0.6% affected the month-on-month increase of CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [2][8] - **January forecast**: The current agricultural product prices are conducive to the increase of the year-on-year CPI data in January, and have little impact on the month-on-month CPI data in January. It is speculated that refined oil prices will have a downward pull on the year-on-year CPI in January and may have a slight downward pull on the month-on-month CPI in January [11] PPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decrease and a previous value of a 2.2% decrease. In 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%. Production material prices decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and living material prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [3][12] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Production material prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and living material prices were flat month-on-month [4][13] - **Industry performance**: In December, industries with a relatively large year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices included the oil and gas extraction industry, coal mining and washing industry, etc.; industries with a relatively large year-on-year increase included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Industries with a relatively large month-on-month increase in prices included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; industries with a relatively large month-on-month decline included the oil and gas extraction industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries [12][15] - **Impact factors**: The price increases of precious metals represented by gold and silver prices, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper in December played a relatively large role in the month-on-month increase of PPI in December [5][20]

来源：赵伟宏观探索 1、生产高频跟踪：工业生产走势分化，建筑业开工边际回落 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均有回升。上周（12月28日至01月03日），高炉开工率环比0.7%，同 比回升1.3个百分点至0.9%；钢材表观消费环比0.9%、同比上升4.4个百分点至2.2%。钢材社会库存延续回 落，环比-2.5%。 图 30: 上周, 高炉开工率有所回升 国高炉开工率 (247家) 2024 2022 2023 2025 2026 85 % 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源： Wind、申万宏源研究 图 31: 上周, 钢材周表观消费小幅回升 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1300 力啊 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源: iFind、申万宏源研究 石化链、消费链开工整体偏弱。上周（12月28日至01月03日），石化链中，纯碱开工率环比-1.7%、同 ...

三季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2.9%，精准契合市场预期，较前值2.6%的小幅上升，当前通胀水 平仍处于可控范围。 现货黄金价格在数据发布后呈现持续回落态势，日内此前积累的涨幅被不断收窄，而美元指数则顺势反 弹，逐步攀升至当日高点附近。市场预期的变化更为显著，截至发稿时，投资者已明显下调对美联储明年 降息的押注力度，据市场测算，美联储在明年1月28日货币政策会议上实施降息的概率已降至17%左右。 尽管三季度经济增长表现强劲，且此前已形成阶段性增长势头，但多数经济学家对四季度经济走势的预判 较为悲观，普遍认为四季度经济增长将陷入乏力状态，甚至可能出现停滞。究其原因，核心症结在于始于 10月1日的43天政府停摆事件，这一事件对政府支出、企业投资和居民消费均产生了显著的冲击，不仅直 接抑制了短期经济活动，也对市场信心造成了负面影响，进而拖累四季度经济增长动能。 周二，美国经济分析局发布的三季度经济数据显示核心经济指标均超出市场预期，创下两年来最快扩张速 度。不过，多数经济学家对此持谨慎态度，普遍预警当前的高增长难以持续，后续经济下行压力不容忽 视。 美国三季度实际GDP年化季率初值达到4.3%，大幅高于3. ...

美联储理事米兰警告称，如果美联储明年不继续降息，美国经济将面临日益严重的衰退风险。他认为失 业率可能已升至超出预期的水平，这些数据应促使美联储决策者转向鸽派。 米兰表示尚未决定在下次美联储会议上支持降息25个基点还是50个基点，但认为可能还需要几次降息； 他此前已三次在FOMC会议上投票反对25个基点降息，主张50个基点。米兰辩护称全年CPI存在严重的 向上偏差，住房CPI受到政府关门的扭曲，认为剔除"幻影通胀"后，"潜在"通胀水平已接近美联储目标 2%的"噪音范围"内。 米兰一方面肯定鲍威尔在降息上的努力，另一方面又批评美联储在平衡物价与就业市场方面做得不够 好。 12月FOMC会议降息25个基点的决议遭到三票反对，暴露了决策层内部的巨大分歧。分歧主要源于一些 决策者更担心劳动力市场降温，另一些人则认为美联储应优先控制高于目标的通胀。会后预测显示，多 数官员预计明年仅再降息一次，六位官员倾向于维持利率不变。 ...

12月15日(周一)，日元买盘力量凸显，推动美元/日元汇率回落至关键心理关口附近。支撑日元走强的核 心逻辑在于日本制造业信心改善、通胀水平持续高于政策目标，叠加市场对日本央行(BoJ)12月18-19日 政策会议加息的预期升温。反观美元，受美国关键宏观经济数据延迟发布以及市场对美联储未来降息预 期升温的双重拖累，美元/日元汇率显著承压。技术面来看，汇价当前受短期均线压制，短线下行风险 未消，首要支撑需关注关键心理关口。短期内，市场核心焦点将集中于12月18-19日召开的日本央行政 策会议，以及行长上田和夫可能公布的利率决议。 近期市场对日本央行加息的预期持续升温，主要得益于两大关键因素的推动：其一，日本通胀水平仍稳 固高于政策目标，为央行调整货币政策提供了核心依据；其二，日本大型制造业信心显著改善，周一公 布的季度短观(Tankan)调查数据显示，制造业景气及展望指数均实现回升，双双超出市场预期。 技术层面分析，美元/日元短线走势承压，汇价在短期简单移动均线(SMA)附近遭遇较强阻力，未能实 现有效突破，短期市场空头占据主导。日线图振荡指标显示，汇价下跌过程中或在关键心理关口获得支 撑；若该支撑位被有效跌破， ...

人民财讯12月11日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，现有数据表明前景未变。劳动力市场似乎正在逐渐降 温，通胀水平仍然偏高，消费者支出依然稳健。 ...

美联储理事米兰：不认为当前或未来的通胀水平很高。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes indicate significant disagreement among officials regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, influenced by moderate economic expansion and a cooling labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, with the labor market gradually cooling but not showing signs of severe deterioration [1] - Some Federal Reserve officials believe that current inflation levels are close to the Fed's target when excluding tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Inflation Perspectives - A majority of officials argue that overall inflation remains persistently above the target level, with little indication of a timely and sustainable return to the 2% target [1] - The debate over the impact of tariffs on inflation reflects differing views among Federal Reserve officials [1] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a decision to further cut interest rates in December is not guaranteed [1] - The federal government "shutdown" has resulted in the absence of key economic data, which may also contribute to delaying any interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $94,300 on November 15, with a current price of $96,187, reflecting a decline of over 1% [1][3] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 170,000 traders faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [3] - Total liquidations reached approximately $677 million within 24 hours, with $203 million in the last 12 hours alone [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December is now uncertain due to incomplete economic data resulting from the recent government shutdown [4][5] - Dallas Fed President Logan indicated that she does not support a rate cut unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in inflation, which is currently on the rise [4][5] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed caution regarding further rate cuts due to the lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [5]

Core Insights - The inflation level in October has drawn market attention, with the core CPI rising for six consecutive months, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] - The October CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, primarily driven by the core CPI [1] - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, reflects long-term price trends and is crucial for assessing current economic conditions and future inflation [1] CPI Components - In October, six out of seven major price categories in the core CPI increased year-on-year, with notable rises in other goods and services (12.8%), personal care (1.9%), and clothing (1.7%) [1] - Healthcare, education, and housing prices rose by 1.4%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively, while transportation and communication prices decreased by 1.5% [1] - Month-on-month, other goods and services surged by 3.8%, contributing significantly to the core CPI increase [1] Other Goods and Services - Other goods and services, which include jewelry, watches, and funeral services, accounted for 3.0% of per capita consumption expenditure in the first three quarters of 2025, with a growth rate of 10.3% [2] - The price of gold jewelry and platinum increased by 50.3% and 46.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong correlation between gold prices and the CPI [2] Service Prices - Service prices have been gradually increasing since March, with a 0.8% rise in October, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [3] - The service sector's value added reached 592,955 billion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 5.4% year-on-year and contributing 60.7% to national economic growth [3] Factors Influencing Service Prices - The growth in service demand and prices is attributed to the application of new technologies and the digital transformation of traditional services, which increases operational costs [4] - Demographic factors, such as an aging population and a decrease in young labor force, are leading to increased demand for healthcare, education, and high-quality services, driving up prices [5] - Despite economic pressures, there remains potential for further growth in service demand, indicating that the current price increase trend is still in its early stages [5]