巴央行在发布的货币政策声明中指出，2025年7月至8月期间，巴基斯坦通胀水平呈现相对温和态势。尽 管通胀降幅较前期有所放缓，但整体仍保持稳步下降趋势；与此同时，大规模制造业等关键经济指标释 放积极信号，显示该国经济增长势头正进一步增强。不过，当前洪水灾害对经济造成明显冲击：短期宏 观经济前景出现小幅恶化，尤其对供给侧的农业部门影响较大。巴央行预判，这一影响可能导致2026财 年（2025年7月至2026年6月）巴基斯坦总体通胀水平、经常账户赤字规模超出此前预期，经济增长速度 也将较原有预期有所放缓。经货币政策委员会（MPC）综合评估认为，尽管通胀短期内可能出现波 动，但当前11％的政策利率水平足以将通胀稳定在5％—7％的中期目标区间内。 巴基斯坦国家银行（以下简称"巴央行"）货币政策委员会（MPC）在9月15日召开的会议上，宣布将政 策利率维持在11％不变。此举旨在平衡当前巴基斯坦的经济运行态势，同时应对近期洪水灾害带来的宏 观经济不确定性。 根据巴央行公布的相关计划，2025年度仍有两次政策利率调整，时间暂定于10月27日及12月15日。（巴 基斯坦财富网供稿） 回顾政策利率调整历程：2023年3月，受通胀 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in collaboration with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, have officially launched a cross-border bond repurchase business to support foreign institutions participating in the onshore bond market [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will introduce a new Renminbi business funding arrangement starting October 9, replacing the existing Renminbi trade financing liquidity arrangement and implementing several optimization measures [1] - The U.S. government funding is set to run out at midnight on September 30, raising concerns about a potential government shutdown if bipartisan negotiations fail [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced a new round of high tariffs on various imported products starting October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30% tariff on imported furniture [2] - The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled that corrosion-resistant steel products imported from several countries have harmed U.S. industries, leading to the issuance of anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders [2] - The Federal Reserve's Board member Bowman emphasized the need for rate cuts due to a "fragile" job market and inflation nearing the Fed's target [2] Group 3 - The Kansas City Fed President stated that the Fed may not need to lower interest rates again in the short term as inflation levels remain high [3] - The South Korean government plans to extend foreign exchange market trading hours to 24 hours to eliminate trading time restrictions for foreign investors [3] - The Bank of Indonesia is intervening in the financial market to stabilize the Indonesian Rupiah, which has fallen to record lows [3] Group 4 - The final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for September dropped to 55.1, the lowest in four months, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7% [4] - The core CPI in Tokyo, Japan, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, unchanged from August [4] Group 5 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.65% to 46,247.29 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw increases [4] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.50% to $3,789.8 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce [4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.43 basis points to 3.63%, while the 10-year yield rose by 1.16 basis points to 4.20% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve acknowledged a slowdown in employment growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while also indicating that inflation levels remain slightly elevated, leading to a decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% by 25 basis points [3]. - The decision reflects a more pessimistic view on the employment market compared to the previous meeting, with the acknowledgment of rising unemployment risks [3][6]. Changes in Statements - The Fed removed the phrase regarding the stability of the labor market and noted that employment growth has slowed [3][5]. - Inflation was mentioned as having increased, a change from the previous meeting where this trend was not highlighted [3][5]. Voting Dynamics - Stephen I. Miran was the only member to vote against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25 [3][7]. - Other members, including those appointed by President Trump, supported the 25 basis point reduction, contrary to some pre-meeting expectations [3][4][7]. Economic Outlook - The committee aims for maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate, while recognizing high levels of uncertainty in the economic outlook [6]. - The Fed will continue to monitor various factors, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to assess future monetary policy adjustments [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - M1 is expected to peak and decline, and the inflation level will remain low. Although the PPI year - on - year reading will rise due to the low base, the overall inflation in Q4 will stay at a low level [1][19] - The main theme of the Q4 market is likely to return to reality. After the stock market gradually evaluates policies and fundamentals, the negative impact on the bond market will be cleared [2] - The impact of monetary policy is mild, and the bond market valuation is reasonable. Even with limited incremental monetary benefits, the bond market can strengthen as it returns to fundamental trading [3] - The Q4 bond market is expected to oscillate and recover. It is recommended to wait for market sentiment to stabilize, then take long positions on dips, continue to hold short - hedging strategies and close them after sentiment stabilizes, and consider curve - flattening strategies [4][82][83] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Q1 - Q3 Treasury Bond Trend Review - The first stage (early - March mid - late): The central bank guided the tightening of the capital market, and the bond market oscillated weakly [13] - The second stage (end of March - end of June): Monetary policy and the capital market gradually loosened, and the bond market gradually recovered. After the tariff implementation in early April, Treasury bond futures rose rapidly, and the bond market oscillated at a high level from April to May, then strengthened in June [13] - The third stage (July - September): Anti - involution policies led to a rise in market risk appetite, the stock and commodity markets rose rapidly, and Treasury bond futures fell [13] 3.2 M1 Peaks and Declines, Inflation Remains Low 3.2.1 The Current M1 Growth Recovery is Unique and May Lack Sustainability - The current M1 growth recovery is different from previous ones. It is mainly due to the low base, fiscal stimulus creating corporate deposits, improved SME payment cycles, increased corporate settlement willingness, and the revival of household deposit currentization [20][21] - The economic nature of the current M1 growth recovery is limited, and the M1 growth rate is likely to decline in Q4 due to the rising base and potential reduction in fiscal policy intensity [24][25] 3.2.2 The Year - on - Year Inflation Reading Rises, but the Month - on - Month Price Increase Momentum is Weak - The current M1 growth recovery has limited ability to drive inflation. The anti - involution policy has not been fully implemented, and the domestic supply - demand imbalance persists. The Q4 inflation will remain low, and the PPI year - on - year reading will rise due to the low base [19] - It is difficult to reduce supply in Q4 as the anti - involution policy is different from the supply - side structural reform, and the high - tech manufacturing production growth is relatively fast [28][29] - Domestic demand remains weak. The real estate market is difficult to stabilize, Q4 consumption growth is challenging, and although external demand has some resilience, it also faces downward pressure [31][32][36] 3.3 Q4 Market Main Theme Expected to Return to Reality 3.3.1 Capital Drives Stock Market Up, Bond Market Follows Down - The rise of the stock market in Q3 was mainly driven by capital. Factors include high stock - bond return ratios, increased global risk appetite, policy incentives, and increased corporate settlement willingness [39][43][51] - The stock market's bull run in Q3 significantly suppressed the bond market. As the bond market has priced in the existing monetary benefits, the stock market's rise became the key factor suppressing the bond market [53] 3.3.2 When Will the Negative Impact of the Stock Market be Cleared? - Overseas risk appetite may fluctuate in Q4 due to potential inflation risks in the US and geopolitical uncertainties [56] - The stock - bond return ratio approached its 10 - year average in mid - September, and the stock market's upward pace slowed down, indicating a possible return to fundamental trading [59] - Policy incentives are expected to fade away in mid - late October, and the stock market is likely to turn to real - world trading. The bond market and the stock market are expected to gradually return to fundamental trading in Q4 [60][63] 3.4 Monetary Impact is Mild, Bond Market Valuation is Reasonable 3.4.1 No Negative Monetary Factors, Limited Incremental Benefits - Monetary policy and the capital market are likely to remain unchanged. Although there is a need for interest rate cuts, the probability is low, and the market's expectation of continuous interest rate cuts is also low [64][71] - The central bank is not in a hurry to restart open - market bond trading. Even if the policy is implemented, its positive impact on the bond market will be weaker than last year [75] 3.4.2 Bond Market Valuation is Basically Reasonable with Room for Strengthening - The short - end and long - end interest rates in the bond market are gradually approaching reasonable levels. The bond market's sensitivity to negative news will gradually decrease as the valuation becomes more reasonable [76][77] 3.5 Treasury Bond Market Outlook and Strategies - The Q4 bond market is expected to oscillate and recover. It will start with low - level oscillations, then turn upward, and may face fluctuations at the end of the year [82][83] - Strategies include taking long positions on dips after market sentiment stabilizes, continuing to hold short - hedging strategies and closing them after sentiment stabilizes, and considering curve - flattening strategies when the bond market sentiment improves [83]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that despite an increase in inflation levels, it is unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] - Pimco economists maintain their predictions regarding Federal Reserve policy and inflation, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with a possibility of discussing a 50 basis point cut [1] - Pimco forecasts a total rate cut of 75 basis points for the year [1] Group 2 - The August CPI data shows a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, up from 2.7% in July [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.8 basis points to 3.545%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.3 basis points to 4.033% [1]

Gold - The U.S. judge has blocked the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, while President Trump has quickly appealed the decision. The Fed nominee Milan has passed the Senate committee test and is expected to be confirmed by the full Senate next Monday [2] - The U.S. August CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.9%, meeting market expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that U.S. inflation is relatively controllable, and the job market is softening, leading to optimistic rate cut expectations. With the Fed's rate cut expectations and doubts about its independence, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain weak, which is favorable for gold prices [2] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows that the market has maintained a relatively high adjustment level in recent trading days, with short-term caution against pullback risks. The 4-hour chart indicates a focus on testing the support level at $3,610 [2] Oil - Recent data from the API and EIA show an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 5, with total crude and refined oil inventories reaching the largest increase since 2023, indicating the end of the U.S. oil consumption peak season and entering a phase of inventory accumulation [4] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.495 million barrels per day, maintaining a slight growth trend for about two months [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that U.S. crude oil production will remain stable in the near term and that exports to Europe will increase, which may negatively impact oil prices. OPEC's production increase will slow down in October, but the overall direction of increased supply will not change, posing a significant obstacle to rising oil prices [5] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows a significant decline in the previous trading day, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating further downside risks for oil prices. The 4-hour chart shows oil prices returning below the 20-day moving average, with short-term bearish sentiment. Key resistance is at $63, while support is at $60 [5] Copper - The daily chart indicates that after a previous pullback, the market found support at the 20-day moving average, and in recent trading days, the market has continued to rebound and closed with bullish candles, suggesting further upward opportunities. Short-term focus is on the support level at $4.56 [7] Nikkei 225 - The daily chart shows a continuation of strong performance, with the previous trading day closing higher with bullish candles, indicating potential for further upward movement. The 4-hour chart shows the market moving higher along the 20-day moving average, with short-term focus on the support level at 44,180 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, corporate earnings have not significantly improved. After repeated digestion of previous policy benefits, market bullish sentiment has cooled. There is a risk of adjustment in stock indices due to profit - taking pressure. Gold has accelerated its short - term rise driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [42]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Gold may face a deep - adjustment risk due to the fading of uncertainties from US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the repeated digestion of the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. Industrial production expansion accelerated, demand improved marginally, but external demand faced significant downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remained weak [3][4]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - **Corporate Earnings**: Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure. They cannot transfer production costs to end - consumers, resulting in a long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits. Some industries are still in the active de - stocking phase, with finished - product inventories continuing to decline [18]. - **Funding and Liquidity**: The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 1.0684 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan [22]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data - **Inflation and Consumption**: The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 2.8%), rising for 3 consecutive months and reaching a new high since February. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. US tariff policies are affecting prices, suppressing consumer confidence and consumption expenditure [28]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold futures' warehouse receipts and inventory have been rising, indicating an increase in physical gold delivery demand and a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - **Stock Indices**: Although the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in July, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, with insufficient demand being the main contradiction. The previous sharp rise in stock index futures was driven by multiple factors such as policies, funds, and sentiment. However, the inflection point of corporate earnings growth has not arrived. As policy benefits are repeatedly digested, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and short - term adjustments are expected [41]. - **Gold**: Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, suggesting that a September interest rate cut is highly likely. The controversy over Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has intensified market concerns about central bank independence, driving up the gold price to a new record high. Attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [41].

Core Insights - Eurozone's annual inflation rate for July stands at 2.0%, unchanged from June and lower than 2.6% in the same month last year [1] - The EU-wide inflation rate for July is recorded at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in June but down from 2.8% a year ago [1] Country-Specific Data - The countries with the lowest annual inflation rates in July are Cyprus (0.1%), France (0.9%), and Ireland (1.6%) [1] - The highest inflation rates are observed in Romania (6.6%), Estonia (5.6%), and Slovakia (4.6%) [1] - Among the 27 member states, 8 countries saw a decrease in inflation rates compared to June, 6 countries remained stable, and 13 countries experienced an increase [1] Category-wise Changes - Service prices increased by 3.2%, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose by 3.3%, while non-energy industrial goods saw a rise of 0.8% [1] - Energy prices decreased by 2.4% [1] Contribution to Inflation - Service prices contributed the most to the Eurozone's annual inflation rate, adding 1.46 percentage points [1] - Food, alcohol, and tobacco contributed 0.63 percentage points, while non-energy industrial goods added 0.18 percentage points [1] - Energy prices continued to decline, reducing the inflation rate by 0.23 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the current economic situation in the U.S., acknowledging a slowdown in overall economic activity while noting a stable job market and low unemployment rates [3] - High inflation remains a significant concern, preventing the Fed from lowering interest rates despite weakening growth momentum [3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had 12 voting members, with 9 supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while 2 members voted for a 25 basis point cut, indicating internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [5] - The differing opinions among Fed members highlight concerns about high inflation versus the potential negative impacts of economic downturns and tariff policies on the U.S. economy [6] - The dissenting votes from two members, both nominated by former President Trump, suggest potential political influences on the Fed's independence and decision-making process [6]

Economic Indicators - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for June showed results warmer than expected, with year-over-year PCE reaching +2.6%, which is 10 basis points higher than anticipated [2][5] - Personal Income increased by +0.3%, exceeding expectations by 10 basis points, while Personal Spending fell to +0.3%, down 10 basis points from expectations [3][4] - The overall PCE Index month-over-month was in line with expectations at +0.3%, following an upwardly revised +0.2% the previous month [4] Job Market - Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly to 218K, marking the first increase in seven weeks, but still significantly lower than the 250K seen in early June [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.946 million, indicating a leveling off after a period of decline [8] - The upcoming Employment Situation report for July is expected to show 100K new jobs, which is a decrease of 47K from the previous month [9] Q2 Earnings Reports - AbbVie reported Q2 earnings of $2.97 per share, surpassing projections of $2.89, with a year-to-date increase of +6.5% [10] - CVS Health exceeded earnings estimates with $1.81 per share, resulting in an earnings beat of +23.13% and a year-to-date increase of +38.8% [10] - Mastercard's earnings of $4.15 per share beat expectations by 10 cents, with a year-to-date increase of +6% [10] - Bristol Myers-Squibb had a notable earnings beat at $1.46 per share, exceeding estimates by +36.45% [11] - International Paper reported a significant earnings drop to $0.20 per share, missing expectations by -47.37% [11] - Sirius XM missed estimates with earnings of 57 cents per share, resulting in a -27.85% earnings surprise [12] Market Outlook - The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) report is expected after the market opens, with no further scheduled announcements [13] - Anticipation surrounds upcoming earnings reports from major companies such as Apple and Amazon, with expectations of modest gains for Apple and high-single-digit growth for Amazon [14]