美联储理事米兰：不认为当前或未来的通胀水平很高。 来源：滚动播报 ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯11月20日电，美国联邦储备委员会19日公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，由于经济温和扩 张、劳动力市场逐步降温但未现急剧恶化，美联储官员对12月是否进一步降息出现明显分歧。 围绕关税对通胀的影响，美联储官员意见存在分歧。一些与会官员认为，不考虑关税带来的影响，目前 通胀水平已接近美联储的目标值。然而更多官员认为，总体通胀水平已持续高于目标值，且几乎没有迹 象表明其能够及时、可持续地回落至2%的目标水平。 美联储主席鲍威尔日前曾表示，美联储12月货币政策会议决定进一步降息并非板上钉钉。美国联邦政 府"停摆"导致关键经济数据缺失，也可能成为暂缓降息的原因。 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $94,300 on November 15, with a current price of $96,187, reflecting a decline of over 1% [1][3] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 170,000 traders faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [3] - Total liquidations reached approximately $677 million within 24 hours, with $203 million in the last 12 hours alone [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December is now uncertain due to incomplete economic data resulting from the recent government shutdown [4][5] - Dallas Fed President Logan indicated that she does not support a rate cut unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in inflation, which is currently on the rise [4][5] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed caution regarding further rate cuts due to the lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [5]

其他用品及服务是居民消费价格指数（CPI）统计中的第八大类，涵盖珠宝、手表、殡葬用品等非日常 耐用消费品及服务，在2025年前三季度占全国居民人均消费支出的3.0%。 这个项目再细分就是，实物用品：如珠宝首饰、手表、箱包等耐用消费品。服务项目：如殡葬服务、美 容美发服务、家庭维修服务等。 数据显示，2025年前三季度，全国居民人均其他用品及服务消费支出为639元，占人均消费支出的 3.0%，增速达10.3%。 对这个数据影响最大的部分是珠宝、贵金属商品。按照2024年年末的情况，黄金的权重分别占CPI和核 心CPI的2.7%和4.9%，金饰品和铂金价格同比去年分别上涨了50.3%和46.1%。国盛证券的研报测算，强 调国内黄金期货价格与CPI的"其他用品和服务"呈现明显的正相关关系，如果剔除贵金属价格的上涨， 10月CPI和核心CPI同比分别是负的0.2%和0.6%。 10月份通胀水平引发市场关注，核心CPI连涨6个月，同比上涨幅度达到1.2%。尤其值得注意的是服务 价格的持续回升。 具体来看，10月CPI同比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨 幅连续第6个月扩 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month-on-month, and PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a mild recovery in the inflation level. Due to base effects, the year-on-year CPI data for November is expected to show a significant rebound, while the year-on-year PPI data will remain roughly flat. China's economic activity continues to be in a mild state [5][16][17] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous decline of 0.3%. From January to October, the average national consumer price decreased 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [2][6] - Food prices in October decreased 2.9% year-on-year, with the previous decrease being 4.4%, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline. Non-food prices rose 0.9% year-on-year, compared with a 0.7% increase in September [2][6] - Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 1.0% increase in September, and its year-on-year increase has been expanding for the past six months [2][6] - Consumer goods prices decreased 0.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 0.8% decrease in September. Service prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, compared with a 0.6% increase in September [2][6] Month-on-Month Data - In October, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% increase in the previous period. Food prices rose 0.3% month-on-month, rising for three consecutive months, with the previous increase being 0.7%. Non-food prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% decrease in the previous period [3][7] - Consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% increase in the previous period. Affected by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, service prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% decrease in September [3][7] - Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a flat level in September [3][7] Influencing Factors - The rapid rise of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index in October this year promoted the month-on-month increase of CPI in October. The increase in agricultural product prices in November compared with the same period last year will help drive the year-on-year increase of CPI in November [9] - Domestic refined oil prices were reduced twice in October. The energy price in November is likely to have a downward impact on the month-on-month CPI [9] PPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased 2.1% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 2.3% decrease and a previous decrease of 2.3%. From January to October, the average PPI decreased 2.7% compared with the same period of the previous year [3][10] - Production material prices decreased 2.4% year-on-year in October, affecting the overall level of industrial producer prices to decrease by about 1.77 percentage points. Among them, mining industry prices decreased 7.8% year-on-year, raw material industry prices decreased 2.5% year-on-year, and processing industry prices decreased 1.9% year-on-year [10] - The year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. The year-on-year increase in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing [10] Month-on-Month Data - In October, PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, the first month-on-month positive growth this year, compared with a flat level in the previous period. Production material prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared with a flat level in the previous period [3][11] - The month-on-month increase in prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, etc. The month-on-month decline in prices was relatively large in industries such as oil and gas extraction, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. [4][12] - In October, the month-on-month change in consumer goods prices was flat, compared with a 0.2% decrease in the previous period. Among them, food prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, general daily necessities prices rose 0.7% month-on-month, and durable consumer goods prices decreased 0.3% month-on-month [13] PMI and Service Industry Index - In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, remaining below the boom-bust line for the seventh consecutive month, compared with 49.8% in the previous period. The new order index in October was 48.8%, compared with 49.7% in the previous period, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [5][16][17] - In October, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, compared with 50.1% in the previous month. The service industry sales price index was 47.7%, compared with 47.2% in the previous period. The service industry new order index was 46.0%, compared with 46.7% in the previous period [5][17]

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，日本首相高市早苗表示，调整销售税率需要时间，因此是否采取这一措施需考虑届时的工资和 通胀水平。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's import growth rate declined and exports turned negative year-on-year, indicating that the foundation of China's economic recovery is not solid, domestic demand remains weak, and external demand is under increasing downward pressure. The export will face downward pressure in the future. The stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds and the risk of a new decline should be watched out for. Gold may be under short - term pressure and has a risk of deep adjustment in the medium - long term [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Data - In October 2025, China's imports increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate dropping by 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, and exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, the first negative growth since March, reflecting weakening domestic demand and increasing downward pressure on external demand [3][4]. 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - From January to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive year - on - year, and the growth rate of finished product inventories rebounded. However, after removing the impact of the low base effect in the previous year, corporate profitability remained weak, and enterprises were still in the stage of active inventory reduction [16]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose slightly to 24725.92 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan [18]. 3. Gold Fundamental Data - Many Fed officials made hawkish remarks, believing that the US economy is still robust, the inflation risk has not been eliminated, and caution is needed regarding future interest rate cuts. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has returned above the 4% mark [28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have further dampened the market's expectation of another interest rate cut in December, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [40]. - Medium - long term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Gold has a risk of deep adjustment due to factors such as the cooling of the expectation of another Fed interest rate cut in December [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and repeated digestion of domestic policy benefits, the stock index should be cautious about callback risks; the Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has decreased. Gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [29]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. The stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation in the medium term; concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies have subsided, and gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the downward adjustment of the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation [29][30] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - In October this year, the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been in the contraction range for 7 consecutive months. Industrial production has slowed down significantly, demand has declined again, external demand pressure has increased, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises has weakened [2] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Enterprise Profit - From January to September this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 3.2% year - on - year, rebounding for two consecutive months. However, there is a differentiation in business performance among different industries. The profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries maintain rapid growth, while the operating pressure on downstream enterprises remains high [11] 3.2.2 Capital Situation - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has risen to 2473.27 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2068 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 900 billion yuan of one - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net injection of 1400.8 billion yuan [15] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Risk - free Rate: Holding Cost and Inflation Level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at its October meeting, but the divergence among participants on future interest rate policies has increased. They believe that the lack of economic data may lead to a delay in interest rate cuts, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has returned above the 4% mark [21] 3.3.2 US Consumer Confidence Index and Employment Situation - No specific data provided 3.3.3 Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have slowed down, but the inventory of COMEX gold in New York has continued to decline, indicating a decrease in the risk of a short squeeze [28] 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: After the end of the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and repeated digestion of domestic policy benefits, pay attention to the callback risk of the stock index in the short - term; the Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has decreased. Gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [29] - Medium - to long - term: The valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. The stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation in the medium term; concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies have subsided, and gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the downward adjustment of the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation [29][30]

Economic Overview - Eurozone's fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP for Germany, France, and Italy was 2.2% in H1 2025, down from 2.5% in Q4 2024, indicating a "tight fiscal & loose monetary" environment[4] - U.S. core CPI in September 2025 was 3%, below the expected 3.1%, showing a decrease in inflationary pressure[7] - U.S. durable goods consumption expenditure increased by $20 billion, from $5.56 trillion to $5.68 trillion, despite new tariffs[10] Market Valuation - The effective exchange rate index for the euro was at a historical high of 130 as of October 24, 2025, indicating overvaluation of euro assets[13] - The 10-year government bond yield spread between Italy and Germany fell to 79 basis points, and between Greece and Germany to 66 basis points, both at 15-year lows, reflecting low risk premiums in Southern European bonds[13] Commodity Insights - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4,336.4, exceeding the 200-day moving average by 32.5%, suggesting potential for a price correction[16] - The copper-to-gold price ratio fell to 2.7, indicating a divergence with the offshore RMB exchange rate, which rose to 7.1[27] Investment Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.2%, significantly below the 16-year average, suggesting room for valuation increases[18] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 28.8, above the past 16-year average, indicating enhanced attractiveness of equities over fixed income[29]

Group 1 - The domestic macroeconomic data is gradually being disclosed, indicating a mixed market sentiment with inflation levels stabilizing due to the rebound in commodity prices, although the transmission to downstream sectors remains incomplete [1] - The market is currently in a phase of oscillation and consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a horizontal adjustment since late August, showing strong support above previous high points [2] - The trading volume in the two markets has significantly shrunk, with a focus on value sectors such as coal and finance, while large-cap blue-chip stocks are yielding excess returns [1] Group 2 - The market is characterized by a divergence in performance among different indices, suggesting a rapid rotation and the presence of differing opinions among investors, indicating a need for patience in waiting for opportunities [2]