美债市场方面，基准10年期国债收益率收报4.056%，对货币政策更为敏感的2年期国债收益率维持在3.475%水平。收益率曲线的 形态显示，市场对未来利率路径的预期相对稳定，短期内政策利率大幅调整的概率较低。 展望未来，美元指数的走向将取决于多重因素的交织影响：美联储官员的政策表态、美国经济数据的实际表现、以及全球地缘政 治局势的演变。当前市场参与者正密切关注即将公布的非农就业数据和制造业活动指标，这些数据将为判断经济动能提供重要线 索。在缺乏明确催化剂的情况下，美元指数或继续维持区间整理格局。 从货币政策预期角度分析，当前市场普遍预期美联储将维持利率水平至少至年中。这种预期基于对美国经济数据的综合判断：一 方面，劳动力市场虽显现降温迹象，但失业率仍处于历史相对低位；另一方面，通胀水平虽较峰值明显回落，但核心通胀的粘性 特征使得政策制定者倾向于保持观望姿态。 值得注意的是，美元指数的波动与风险资产价格走势呈现出一定的负相关性。当市场风险偏好回升时，美元往往承压；而当避险 情绪升温时，美元则获得支撑。这种动态关系在周四的交易中表现得尤为明显，美股科技股的回调在一定程度上支撑了美元的反 弹。 外汇市场上，美元指数在 ...

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四国债期货主力合约开盘多数低开，早盘连续下行，午后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.53%，10 年期 T2606 下跌 0.10%，5 年期 TF2606 下跌 0.08%，2 年期 TS2606 下跌 0.03%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 3205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 4000 亿元逆 回购到期，合计当日净回笼 795 亿元。 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅下行，DR001 全天加 权平均为 1.37%，上一交易日加权平均 1.38%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.48%，上一 交易日加权平均 1.51%。 | | 宏观与金 融 | 国债 | TL、T、 TF、TS （震荡） | 3、现券市场：周四银行间国债现券收盘收 ...

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，早盘波动下行，午后下行加速后横盘至收盘， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.47%，10 年期 T2606 下跌 0.13%， | | | | | 5 年期 TF2606 下跌 0.10%，2 年期 TS2606 下跌 0.06%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 4095 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 4000 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期。周三央行还开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期，当日有 3000 亿元 MLF | | | | | 到期。周三有国库现金定存到期 1500 亿元。三者合计当日净投放 1595 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅上行， ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 春节前最后一个交易日国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，早盘横向波动一段后下 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 行，午后有所回升，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 涨 | 0.04%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 下跌 | 0.10%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 下跌 | 0.09%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "slightly bullish with oscillations" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inflation level in China showed a mild rebound in January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI and service business activity index in January were both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation. The central bank's continuous support for the capital market to maintain liquidity, along with the government's fiscal policy and the central bank governor's statement on potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, support the long side of bonds. The bond futures are expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contract of 30 - year bond futures TL2603 fell 0.03%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed up 0.46% with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day's 2.00 trillion yuan [1][2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 1665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday. With 1185 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 4480 billion yuan. On February 13, 2026, the central bank will conduct 10000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 6 - month term [1] - Capital market: The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Thursday decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.53% (1.54% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly on Thursday. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.04 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year fell 0.48 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year fell 1.01 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year rose 0.05 BP to 2.25% [1] - Diplomatic and trade news: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that President Xi Jinping reiterated the invitation to President Trump to visit China in early April, and the two sides are in communication. The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the US maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The mild economic situation in January and the central bank's measures to maintain liquidity support the long side of bonds. The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will remain at a necessary level, and the central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that a significant majority of economists believe the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current level in the upcoming meeting, with about three-quarters of respondents supporting this view, a notable increase from the previous month [1] - Nearly 60% of economists expect the federal funds rate to adjust to a range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of the next quarter, with potential adjustments concentrated around mid-year, reflecting concerns over a softening labor market and persistently high inflation levels [3] - Over 70% of surveyed economists express concerns about the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, primarily due to uncertainties regarding the policy inclinations of potential successors [3] Group 2 - The current interest rate levels are approaching the neutral range, indicating that future adjustments will increasingly depend on data support, with inflation rates currently closer to 3% rather than the 2% target, necessitating a balance between employment and price stability [3] - Most forecasters believe there will be at least two interest rate adjustments within the year, but there is no consensus on the specific level by year-end, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cuts that began in September 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current indicators show that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a steady pace, with employment growth at low levels but a stabilizing unemployment rate [1] - Inflation levels remain high, and uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook is still significant [1] - The unemployment rate is stabilizing around 4.4%, expected to remain below 4.5% in the first half of 2026, indicating insufficient employment pressure to support rate cuts [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's statement and Chairman Powell's remarks indicate a more optimistic view of the current economic situation, which is the primary reason for pausing rate cuts [1] - There were two dissenting votes from Fed governors advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting some internal disagreement on the decision [2] - The Fed is expected to enter a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, particularly focusing on economic and inflation data [2] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a slow pace of rate cuts, with inflation becoming a central consideration for monetary policy [3] - The next potential rate cut is anticipated around June 2026, with expectations of one to two rate cuts throughout the year, totaling around 50 basis points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% amid ongoing economic uncertainties and high inflation levels [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Employment growth remains low, and the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization [3]. - Inflation levels are still high, prompting the Federal Reserve to focus on achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2% [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was made with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, with dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Milan who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [3]. - Prior to this decision, the market widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve would maintain the interest rate during the policy meeting, following three consecutive rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the latest FOMC meeting, reflecting ongoing concerns about employment growth and high inflation levels [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was supported by a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, with dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Milan who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2] Economic Indicators - Current indicators suggest that employment growth remains low, while the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization. Inflation levels continue to be high, prompting the committee to focus on achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation target of 2% [2] Market Expectations - Prior to the policy announcement, market expectations indicated that the Federal Reserve would maintain the interest rate steady, following three consecutive rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese government expects the total retail sales of social consumer goods to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the first time in 2025, reaching 50.1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7% and a contribution rate of consumption to economic growth increasing by 5 percentage points to 52% [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism projects that domestic residents will make 6.522 billion trips in 2025, an increase of 907 million trips year-on-year, representing a growth rate of 16.2%. The spending by domestic residents on travel is expected to reach 6.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.55 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 9.5% [2] - The General Administration of Market Supervision indicates that the corporate credit index in China will reach 162.18 in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a stable and positive development trend in corporate credit levels [2] Group 2 - The European Union Council has approved a ban on the import of Russian natural gas, which will take effect on January 1, 2027, for liquefied natural gas and on September 30, 2027, for pipeline natural gas [3] - The Iranian Statistical Center reported that inflation in Iran reached 60% in January 2026, indicating a significant economic challenge [3] - The Ministry of Public Security forecasts that the number of motor vehicles in China will reach 469 million by 2025, with the number of drivers reaching 559 million, and new vehicle registrations exceeding 30 million for the 11th consecutive year [3]