1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "oscillation" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term based on various market factors, including economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of bond futures opened lower, with the morning session seeing a downward trend and the afternoon session showing horizontal fluctuations. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 fell 0.42%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2606 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 20.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with 37.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on March 20th remained stable for the tenth consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above LPR at 3.5% [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42%, down from 1.43% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds showed mixed changes compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year government bonds decreased by 0.19 BP to 1.31%, the 5 - year yield decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year yield increased by 0.47 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year yield decreased by 0.29 BP to 2.39% [1] - Fed rate hike probability: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 12.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate hike is 21.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate hike is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 76.5% [1] - Geopolitical situation: Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or he would destroy the power plants. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded strongly. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated on the 22nd that the Strait of Hormuz was not blocked, and ships could continue to sail under certain conditions [1][2] Market Logic - From January to February, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 2.7% decline. The added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.4%. Exports in US dollars increased by 21.8% year - on - year, better than the estimated 7.3%. China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, both exceeding market expectations. On March 18th, the central bank's Party Committee expanded meeting pointed out that it would guide and regulate interest rates. On Friday, the Wind All - A index opened slightly higher, fluctuated horizontally in the morning, and declined in the afternoon, closing down 1.23% with a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - The US dollar index exhibited typical range-bound characteristics during trading on Thursday, showing weakness in the Asian and Pacific trading sessions but rebounding as the New York session began, approaching the key technical resistance level of 98 before facing selling pressure and ultimately closing around 97.66 with limited daily fluctuations [1] - In the US Treasury market, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.056%, while the more policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield remained at 3.475%. The shape of the yield curve indicates that market expectations for future interest rate paths are relatively stable, with a low probability of significant adjustments to policy rates in the short term [3] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at least until mid-year, based on a comprehensive assessment of US economic data, including a cooling labor market with a relatively low unemployment rate and a decline in inflation levels, although core inflation remains sticky, leading policymakers to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3] Group 2 - The volatility of the dollar index shows a negative correlation with the prices of risk assets, where a rise in market risk appetite tends to pressure the dollar, while an increase in risk aversion supports the dollar. This dynamic was particularly evident during Thursday's trading, where a pullback in US tech stocks partially supported the dollar's rebound [3] - Observations of major currency pairs indicate that the euro traded around 1.08 against the dollar, the pound remained above the 1.30 mark, and the dollar-yen exchange rate was around 154. The relative strength of these currency pairs reflects market pricing of economic outlooks and monetary policy differences among major economies [3] - Looking ahead, the direction of the dollar index will depend on multiple intertwined factors, including statements from Federal Reserve officials, actual performance of US economic data, and developments in global geopolitical situations. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming non-farm payroll data and manufacturing activity indicators, which will provide important clues for assessing economic momentum [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures generally declined, and they may experience short - term volatility. It is necessary to continue monitoring the trend of the A - share market. For trading - type investments, band operations are recommended [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures mostly opened lower, with continuous declines in the morning session and horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 dropped 0.53%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2606 declined 0.08%, and the 2 - year TS2606 decreased 0.03% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market slightly decreased compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.38% in the previous trading day), and that of DR007 was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year government bond rose 0.49 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year increased 1.31 basis points to 1.56%, the 10 - year climbed 1.30 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year jumped 4.01 basis points to 2.30% [1] - AI model data: From the 9th - 15th, the weekly call volume of Chinese models on the OpenRouter platform reached 4.12 trillion Tokens, surpassing that of US models for the first time. From the 16th - 22nd, the weekly call volume of Chinese models soared to 5.16 trillion Tokens, a 127% increase in three weeks, while that of US models dropped to 2.7 trillion Tokens. Four of the top - five models on the platform are from Chinese manufacturers, accounting for 85.7% of the total call volume of the top 5. The users of this platform are mainly overseas developers, with US users accounting for 47.17% and Chinese developers only 6.01% [1] Market Logic - In January, the social financing scale in China increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan and an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, RMB loans under the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan but a year - on - year decrease of 420 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [2] - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose by 0.4% month - on - month [2] - In January, the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economic situation in January [2] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the guarantee for key areas "only strengthens" [2] - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to keep the overall social financing cost at a low level, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, closing with a small T - line, up 0.21% for the day. The trading volume was 2.56 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 2.48 trillion yuan [2] Trading Strategies - For trading - type investments, band operations are recommended [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures generally declined, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile. Attention should be paid to the trend of the A - share market. Transaction - type investors can conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened mostly higher, fluctuated downward in the morning session, accelerated the decline in the afternoon, and then traded sideways until the close. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 fell 0.47%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2606 fell 0.10%, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.06% [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande All - A index opened slightly higher, rose unilaterally in the morning, fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon and then declined slightly, rising 1.05% throughout the day with a trading volume of 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase compared to the previous trading day's 2.22 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - In the open market on Wednesday, the central bank conducted 4095 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 4000 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also conducted 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with 3000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. There was 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing on Wednesday. The total net investment on the day was 1595 billion yuan [1] - In the money market on Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank market rose slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.38%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.37%. The weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.51%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.55% [1] - In the cash bond market on Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds were mostly higher than the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.39 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year rose 1.35 BP to 1.55%, the 10 - year rose 1.35 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year rose 1.24 BP to 2.26% [1] - Shanghai introduced seven policies covering three aspects: reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing provident fund loans, and improving individual property tax [1] Market Logic - In January 2026, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.4 billion yuan compared to the same period of the previous year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year - on - year. In January, the RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 420 billion yuan [1] - In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the decline was narrower than the previous month. China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately in January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index in January was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderately weak economy in January [1] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". The central bank stated that there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant [1][2] Trading Strategy - Transaction - type investment should conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term "oscillating" rating for the treasury bond market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's social financing scale in January 2026 increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the significant increase in government bond net financing. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, also exceeding market expectations but with a year - on - year decrease. The overall inflation level in January showed a mild recovery, and the PMI indicators indicated a moderately weak economy. The Ministry of Finance will ensure that the overall expenditure remains stable, and the central bank has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.04%, while the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On February 14, the central bank conducted 38 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On February 14, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose slightly. DR001's weighted average was 1.31% (previous trading day: 1.25%), and DR007's weighted average was 1.50% (previous trading day: 1.41%) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On February 14, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated slightly. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.35 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.74 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.29 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.20 BP to 2.25% [1] - **Social Financing and Credit Data**: In January 2026, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, 317.8 billion yuan less year - on - year. The RMB loans in January increased by 4.71 trillion yuan. At the end of January, M2 balance was 347.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and M1 balance was 117.97 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [1] - **Real Estate Market**: In January, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points. The second - hand housing prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - **International News**: On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy was illegal. Trump then announced a 10% import tariff on global goods, which was later raised to 15%. The US GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 1.4%, lower than expected. The 2025 annual GDP growth was 2.2%, lower than 2024. The core PCE price index in December 2025 showed inflation pressure. The US manufacturing and service PMI in February 2026 showed a slowdown in business activity [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's social financing scale in January 2026 exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the increase in government bond net financing. The RMB loans in the credit caliber also exceeded expectations but decreased year - on - year. The inflation level in January showed a mild recovery, and the PMI indicators indicated a moderately weak economy. The government will maintain a stable fiscal policy, and the central bank has room for monetary policy adjustment. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "slightly bullish with oscillations" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inflation level in China showed a mild rebound in January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI and service business activity index in January were both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation. The central bank's continuous support for the capital market to maintain liquidity, along with the government's fiscal policy and the central bank governor's statement on potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, support the long side of bonds. The bond futures are expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contract of 30 - year bond futures TL2603 fell 0.03%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed up 0.46% with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day's 2.00 trillion yuan [1][2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 1665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday. With 1185 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 4480 billion yuan. On February 13, 2026, the central bank will conduct 10000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 6 - month term [1] - Capital market: The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Thursday decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.53% (1.54% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly on Thursday. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.04 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year fell 0.48 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year fell 1.01 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year rose 0.05 BP to 2.25% [1] - Diplomatic and trade news: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that President Xi Jinping reiterated the invitation to President Trump to visit China in early April, and the two sides are in communication. The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the US maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The mild economic situation in January and the central bank's measures to maintain liquidity support the long side of bonds. The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will remain at a necessary level, and the central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that a significant majority of economists believe the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current level in the upcoming meeting, with about three-quarters of respondents supporting this view, a notable increase from the previous month [1] - Nearly 60% of economists expect the federal funds rate to adjust to a range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of the next quarter, with potential adjustments concentrated around mid-year, reflecting concerns over a softening labor market and persistently high inflation levels [3] - Over 70% of surveyed economists express concerns about the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, primarily due to uncertainties regarding the policy inclinations of potential successors [3] Group 2 - The current interest rate levels are approaching the neutral range, indicating that future adjustments will increasingly depend on data support, with inflation rates currently closer to 3% rather than the 2% target, necessitating a balance between employment and price stability [3] - Most forecasters believe there will be at least two interest rate adjustments within the year, but there is no consensus on the specific level by year-end, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cuts that began in September 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current indicators show that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a steady pace, with employment growth at low levels but a stabilizing unemployment rate [1] - Inflation levels remain high, and uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook is still significant [1] - The unemployment rate is stabilizing around 4.4%, expected to remain below 4.5% in the first half of 2026, indicating insufficient employment pressure to support rate cuts [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's statement and Chairman Powell's remarks indicate a more optimistic view of the current economic situation, which is the primary reason for pausing rate cuts [1] - There were two dissenting votes from Fed governors advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting some internal disagreement on the decision [2] - The Fed is expected to enter a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, particularly focusing on economic and inflation data [2] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a slow pace of rate cuts, with inflation becoming a central consideration for monetary policy [3] - The next potential rate cut is anticipated around June 2026, with expectations of one to two rate cuts throughout the year, totaling around 50 basis points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% amid ongoing economic uncertainties and high inflation levels [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Employment growth remains low, and the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization [3]. - Inflation levels are still high, prompting the Federal Reserve to focus on achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2% [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was made with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, with dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Milan who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [3]. - Prior to this decision, the market widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve would maintain the interest rate during the policy meeting, following three consecutive rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the latest FOMC meeting, reflecting ongoing concerns about employment growth and high inflation levels [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was supported by a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, with dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Milan who advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2] Economic Indicators - Current indicators suggest that employment growth remains low, while the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization. Inflation levels continue to be high, prompting the committee to focus on achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation target of 2% [2] Market Expectations - Prior to the policy announcement, market expectations indicated that the Federal Reserve would maintain the interest rate steady, following three consecutive rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [2]