黄金和白银价格经历史诗级暴涨后急剧下跌，机构对短期走势持谨慎态度，但部分机构仍长期看多贵金 属。 黄金白银跌势延续。 截至发稿，现货白银失守75美元/盎司，跌超11%。现货黄金开盘下挫，现报4703美元/盎司，盘中最低 触及每盎司4583美元。 2月2日，国内市场"接棒"国际贵金属市场史诗级暴跌，国内商品期市午盘大面积收跌，沪银、钯、铂跌 停，沪金跌11.68%；基本金属全部下跌，沪锡跌停；能源品、黑色系、化工品纷纷跟跌。 A股市场上，贵金属、有色板块亦大面积重挫，中金黄金（600489.SH）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）、白 银有色（601212.SH）、豫光金铅（600531.SH）等多股跌停。黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF开盘跌停，国 投白银LOF今日复牌后一字跌停。 "在这一急涨与暴跌交织的巨震面前，任何点位测算都显得苍白且无力，"中金公司最新发布的研究报告 分析称，金价显然已超越单纯的基本面主导，传统的黄金测算模型如实际利率已失效。影响更大的地缘 与货币体系重构因素，目前没有具体兑现时间，短期留给市场想象空间。投资者需警惕，黄金急涨急跌 由情绪和资金驱动，节奏难以把握。 大面积跌停，交易所紧急通知 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with weak expectations remaining unchanged. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory, and the price is in a large - range oscillation pattern [2][4] Section Summaries 1. Thread Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, briefly boosting market confidence. The real estate is in the bottom - building process, and the demand for steel is still marginally weakening [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week's data showed a decline in production, factory inventory, and social inventory, and a decrease in apparent demand. The peak season of apparent demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of rainy seasons and high - temperature weather. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has a strong rebound and has stood above the 10 - day moving average for three consecutive days, indicating that it will enter a low - level oscillation and may have a second bottom - probing [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Buy at low prices after the second bottom - probing [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract is 2991 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day and last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3108 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day and 0.36% from last week [2] - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill's thread steel production is 218.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%; the hot - rolled coil production is 328.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major varieties is 935.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%; the thread steel social inventory is 385.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 264.29 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52% [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations reached a framework, reducing uncertainties and briefly boosting market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The steel mill's profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, putting pressure on the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a large - range oscillation pattern, with a bottom and a ceiling. Attention should be paid to the future breakthrough direction [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and avoid chasing up or selling down [4] - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 707 yuan/dry ton, up 1.22% from the previous day and 0.35% from last week [4] - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1872.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.06%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 641.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.35% [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 13826.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%; the port trade ore inventory is 9385.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [4] 3. Industry News - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills was 88.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.51%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output of sample steel mills was 241.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [6] - According to Buguwang, the national building materials social inventory is 552.24 tons, an increase of 1.77 tons from last week, up 0.32%; the factory inventory is 313.18 tons, a decrease of 12.97 tons from last week, down 3.98%; the production is 413.77 tons, a decrease of 8.16 tons from last week, down 1.93% [6]