聚烯烃日报 行业 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位： ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2701 opened at 6954 yuan/ton, closed at 6912 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-0.97%); Plastic 2605 opened at 6890 yuan/ton, closed at 6865 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.15%); Plastic 2609 opened at 6931 yuan/ton, closed at 6916 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton (-0.96%); PP2701 opened at 6668 yuan/ton, closed at 6706 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.33%); PP2605 opened at 6728 yuan/ton, closed at 6730 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-0.65%); PP2609 opened at 6746 yuan/ton, closed at 6757 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2605 opened lower, traded at a low level during the session, and closed down at 6865 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.15%), with a trading volume of 540,000 lots and an increase in positions of 15,259 lots to 511,685 lots; PP2605 closed at 6730 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.65%, with an increase in positions of 229 lots to 509,900 lots [6] - Market Drivers: Polyolefin prices are highly correlated with crude oil. As crude oil gives back geopolitical risk premiums, the driving force of the polyolefin market may gradually shift from cost support to the weak industrial reality. With downstream industries entering the holiday season and procurement weakening, the internal driving force of polyolefins remains weak [6] - Strategy Suggestions: In the short term, pay attention to the pulse market that may be brought by uncertain factors such as the Middle East situation, and take the opportunity of rising oil prices to short; during the price decline, focus on the structural arbitrage opportunities arising from the differentiation of supply pressure between PP and PE [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On February 3, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 505,000 tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 15.83%. The inventory before the Spring Festival last year was 470,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,630 - 6,950 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,830 - 7,200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,900 - 7,250 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6,390 - 6,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. As the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream factories enter the market to purchase, the demand for propylene improves temporarily, the actual order auction premium of production enterprises is common, and the overall trading atmosphere improves slightly [7] - PP Market: The PP market price continued to decline. The mainstream price of drawing materials in North China was 6,520 - 6,630 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,540 - 6,700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,650 - 6,800 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate [9][12][17] - Data Sources: The data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][15][16][17]

跨市矛盾修复， 重回产业弱现实 锌月报 2026/01/04 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 美国财政及债务 图1：美国当月财政收支及赤字MA12（亿美元） 图2：美国国债总额/美国GDP比值（%）及国债总额（万亿美元） 资料来源：Wind、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：Wind、五矿期货研究中心 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 财政赤字MA12 财政支出MA12 财政收入MA12 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 国债/GDP（左） 美国国债总额（右） 美联储资产负债表 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 ...