Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market's driving force may shift from cost support to the weak industrial reality. With downstream industries entering the holiday season and purchasing power weakening, the self - driving force of polyolefin remains weak. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and the correlation between polyolefin and oil prices is high. [6] - Short - term attention should be paid to the pulse market that may be brought by uncertain factors such as the Middle East situation. Seize the opportunity of rising oil prices to short. During the price decline, focus on the structural arbitrage opportunities arising from the differentiation of supply pressure between PP and PE. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - L2605 opened lower, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed higher at 6775 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.24%), with a trading volume of 280,000 lots and a decrease of 5,995 lots in positions to 512,614 lots. PP2605 closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.44%), with a decrease of 1,773 lots in positions to 488,600 lots. [6] 3.2 Industry News - On February 10, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons (8.00%) from the previous working day. The inventory on the 22nd day of the 12th lunar month last year was 475,000 tons. [7] - The PE market price continued to decline weakly. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,570 - 6,900 yuan/ton, 6,600 - 7,000 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,800 - 7,100 yuan/ton in South China. [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6,400 - 6,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The market supply had no obvious pressure, the production enterprises' shipments were okay, and the overall intention to stabilize the market was strong. Downstream factories' stocking was gradually completed, mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the overall market transaction was relatively stable. [7] - The PP market price was mostly sorted out. The mainstream price of drawn wire in North China was 6,460 - 6,570 yuan/ton, 6,540 - 6,650 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,630 - 6,810 yuan/ton in South China. [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [9][12][17]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2701 opened at 6954 yuan/ton, closed at 6912 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-0.97%); Plastic 2605 opened at 6890 yuan/ton, closed at 6865 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.15%); Plastic 2609 opened at 6931 yuan/ton, closed at 6916 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton (-0.96%); PP2701 opened at 6668 yuan/ton, closed at 6706 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.33%); PP2605 opened at 6728 yuan/ton, closed at 6730 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-0.65%); PP2609 opened at 6746 yuan/ton, closed at 6757 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2605 opened lower, traded at a low level during the session, and closed down at 6865 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.15%), with a trading volume of 540,000 lots and an increase in positions of 15,259 lots to 511,685 lots; PP2605 closed at 6730 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.65%, with an increase in positions of 229 lots to 509,900 lots [6] - Market Drivers: Polyolefin prices are highly correlated with crude oil. As crude oil gives back geopolitical risk premiums, the driving force of the polyolefin market may gradually shift from cost support to the weak industrial reality. With downstream industries entering the holiday season and procurement weakening, the internal driving force of polyolefins remains weak [6] - Strategy Suggestions: In the short term, pay attention to the pulse market that may be brought by uncertain factors such as the Middle East situation, and take the opportunity of rising oil prices to short; during the price decline, focus on the structural arbitrage opportunities arising from the differentiation of supply pressure between PP and PE [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On February 3, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 505,000 tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 15.83%. The inventory before the Spring Festival last year was 470,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,630 - 6,950 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,830 - 7,200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,900 - 7,250 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6,390 - 6,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. As the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream factories enter the market to purchase, the demand for propylene improves temporarily, the actual order auction premium of production enterprises is common, and the overall trading atmosphere improves slightly [7] - PP Market: The PP market price continued to decline. The mainstream price of drawing materials in North China was 6,520 - 6,630 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,540 - 6,700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,650 - 6,800 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate [9][12][17] - Data Sources: The data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][15][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In December, zinc prices fluctuated upward. However, after the end of winter stockpiling, the domestic zinc ore supply may become more abundant. The enthusiasm for precious metals has ebbed, and Shanghai zinc may return to the industrial reality in the short term and give back some of its gains. In the medium term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation due to the generally bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector during the double - easing cycle [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In December, the Shanghai zinc index rose 3.74% to 23,305 yuan/ton, with the total position of Shanghai zinc remaining at a relatively low level of around 200,000 lots. The LME zinc 3M contract rose 2.22% to $3,126/ton, and the total position of LME zinc increased by 13,100 lots to 231,200 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 23,300 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 120 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of 10 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 5 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 125 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,400 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 120 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was 125 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3,200 tons to 108,800 tons. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $32.22/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $29/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.075, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,413.75 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 47 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 277,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 608,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.67%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 368,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 52.80%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.04%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 311,400 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.2% and a month - on - month change of - 5.9%. From January to November, the total zinc ore output was 3.382 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.4%. The net import of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 14.1% and a month - on - month change of 52.3%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4.8591 million dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 34.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in November 2025 was 545,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.8% and a month - on - month change of 12.6%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.5686 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 277,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 608,000 physical tons [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In November 2025, the zinc ingot output was 595,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.6%. From January to November, the total zinc ingot output was 6.2815 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. The net import of zinc ingots in November 2025 was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 160.1% and a month - on - month change of - 275.2%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 257,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 41.5%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in November 2025 was 572,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.4% and a month - on - month change of - 9.2%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 6.5393 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.9% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.67%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 368,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 52.80%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.04%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons. - In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 603,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 6.4073 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.8% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot**: In 2025, the supply - demand gap of domestic zinc ingots in November was a shortage of 31,600 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to November was a surplus of 131,900 tons. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot**: In September 2025, the supply - demand gap of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 42,600 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to September was a surplus of 139,900 tons [52][55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,400 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 120 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was 125 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3,200 tons to 108,800 tons. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $32.22/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $29/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.075, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,413.75 yuan/ton. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is bearish in the short term [60][63][66][69].