聚烯烃日报 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- ...

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6780 yuan/ton, closed at 6818 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (0.5%), with a trading volume of 278,000 lots and a decrease in open interest of 5317 lots to 581,602 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6855 yuan/ton, closed at 6893 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.41%), with an increase in open interest of 16,282 lots to 112,385 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6905 yuan/ton, closed at 6938 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.33%), with an increase in open interest of 27 lots to 2289 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6445 yuan/ton, closed at 6480 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.39%), with a decrease in open interest of 8169 lots to 628,423 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6565 yuan/ton, closed at 6577 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.14%), with an increase in open interest of 3798 lots to 147,232 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6600 yuan/ton, closed at 6612 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%), with an increase in open interest of 632 lots to 8233 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Lian su L2601 opened lower, fluctuated slightly higher during the session, and closed higher at 6818 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (0.5%). PP2601 closed at 6480 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.39%). The futures market opened higher, but the market trading atmosphere was not significantly boosted. Traders focused on selling, and downstream buyers made small and cautious purchases at low prices [6] - There are no new production plans in November. The products from previous production have entered the market, significantly increasing the supply of spot resources and intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has peaked seasonally and declined. The demand for pipes has increased first and then decreased. The operating rate of the PP woven bag industry has been boosted by packaging demand, while BOPP enterprises are mainly digesting inventory, and the subsequent orders are expected to weaken, mostly short - term small orders. The support for raw materials has weakened [6] - The expectation of oversupply in the crude oil market has resurfaced, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices. The cost side has led the decline and weakened the support for the plastic and chemical sectors. The downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue [6] Group 4: Industry News - On November 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 665,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.62%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 670,000 tons [7] - The PE market prices have partially declined. The LLDPE prices in North China are in the range of 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton, in East China 6900 - 7400 yuan/ton, and in South China 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily in the range of 5760 - 5800 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market is in a state of supply - demand game, and the directional trend is still unclear. Downstream factories are cautious about purchasing, and production enterprises are mainly stabilizing prices for sales, with a small number of offers rising slightly [7] - The PP market has remained generally stable with minor fluctuations. The mainstream prices of North China drawn yarn are in the range of 6200 - 6450 yuan/ton, in East China 6300 - 6600 yuan/ton, and in South China 6400 - 6540 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][13][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 6888 yuan/ton, closed at 6879 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-0.48%); PP2601 closed at 6560 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.65%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Futures opened lower and fluctuated, downstream procurement was on - demand, and actual transactions were negotiated individually [6] - Supply Situation: In October, Guangxi Petrochemical's device produced products smoothly, and there are no new production plans in November. Some maintenance devices will restart, and PP maintenance losses will decline month - on - month [6] - Demand Situation: Agricultural film production reached a seasonal peak and declined, pipe demand increased first and then decreased, PP woven production was boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises focused on inventory digestion [6] - Price Trend: Polyolefin prices are expected to remain under pressure, and may be weakly supported by phased restocking demand due to low absolute prices, but will generally fluctuate in the bottom range [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory Level: On November 4, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day, compared with 72 million tons in the same period last year [7] - PE Market: PE market prices continued to be weak, with LLDPE prices in different regions ranging from 6830 - 7500 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 5830 - 5840 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some PDH device maintenance supported supply, but downstream demand declined [7] - PP Market: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices down 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and mainstream prices in different regions ranging from 6360 - 6610 yuan/ton [8] Group 5: Data Overview - Data Graphs: Include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change graphs [15][17][18]

Report Title - "PP Weekly Report 20251012: Supply and Demand Pressure and Cost End Collapse, Polyolefin Prices Decline" [1][2][7] Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. PP is in a production capacity release cycle, with new devices being put into operation one after another, and the existing production load is also high, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and is unable to digest the high production volume. Under the situation of supply-demand surplus, the price center of PP may continue to move downward [6]. - After the holiday, the PP price gapped down, and the bearish sentiment was further strengthened compared to before the holiday. On one hand, it was due to cost factors, such as the decline in Saudi Arabia's October CP and OPEC's announcement of continued production increase in November, which led to a decline in the cost of crude oil and PS. On the other hand, the fundamental situation remained weak, with a significant accumulation of inventory after the holiday. The demand in the peak season was limited, and the purchasing enthusiasm was poor. Additionally, there was a political risk on Friday, as Trump's attitude towards China became more aggressive, and tariffs were re - imposed, causing a sharp decline in the price of crude oil in the commodity market and further pressuring the polyolefin price [9]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions Inventory Management for Sellers - For those with high inventory and worried about PP price decline, they can short futures contracts on the disk for the PP to be sold to prevent price decline risks (contract: pp2601, entry price: 6950, hedging ratio: 50%) or buy put options on the disk (contract: pp2601 - P - 6900, entry price: 112, hedging ratio: 50%) [4]. Procurement Management for Traders - To build inventory and seek to buy PP at a low price, they can buy call options in proportion to control procurement costs and prevent price increases (contract: pp2601 - C - 6900, entry price: 125, hedging ratio: 100%) [4]. Procurement and Inventory Management for Terminal Customers - When in need of PP raw materials and worried about price increases, they can buy call options in proportion to control procurement costs (contract: pp2601 - C - 6900, entry price: 125, hedging ratio: 100%); when having raw material inventory and worried about price declines, they can short futures contracts on the disk in proportion (contract: pp2601, entry price: 6950, hedging ratio: 50%) or buy put options (contract: pp2601 - P - 6900, entry price: 112, hedging ratio: 50%) [4]. Market Data Analysis Supply - Domestic production: This week, the PP output was 79.62 million tons (+1.62 million tons), and the operating rate was 77.75% (+1.14%). During the holiday, the devices were restarted one after another, leading to an increase in PP output and a decline in loss volume, intensifying the supply pressure [10]. - Imports and exports: According to customs data, in August, the PP import volume was 24.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.54%, and the export volume was 27.59 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.67%. China's net PP import was - 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 233.72%. The export volume exceeded the import volume again [10]. Demand - After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.76%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.08% compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.38%, supported by the increased demand for fertilizer packaging in agriculture and the resumption of construction in industries such as construction and infrastructure. After the holiday, the demand cooled down, and the operating rates of BOPP and CPP decreased by 0.67% and 1.68% respectively. The operating rate of PP pipe materials remained stable. The consumption in the automotive and home appliance industries was strong, and with the arrival of the peak season, the operating rate of modified PP increased by 0.38%. Although there is still room for improvement in the traditional peak season, the overall performance is relatively weak and unable to digest the high supply volume [10]. Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 16.11 million tons to 68.14 million tons, including an accumulation of 4.5 million tons in the inventory of two major oil companies, 7.07 million tons in coal - chemical industry inventory, 0.83 million tons in PBI inventory, and 3.71 million tons in local refinery inventory. During the holiday, upstream trading stagnated, and the inventory accumulated seasonally with a considerable increase, putting significant pressure on the upstream [10][206]. - The inventory of traders increased by 7.39 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.22 million tons, with an increase in the proportion of foreign resources in the domestic market [209]. Cost - During the holiday, the crude oil price rebounded after a decline and then fell again this week, especially dropping to around $62 per barrel on Friday. The main reasons for the decline during the holiday were OPEC+'s plan to increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November and the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, which alleviated geopolitical concerns. On Friday, Trump's attitude towards China became more aggressive, reigniting tariff risks and causing a sharp decline in crude oil prices. However, the profit of oil - based PP has remained at a relatively good level in recent years [10][64]. - The LPG price continued to decline, and the profit of PDH - based PP improved month - on - month [11][64]. - After the holiday, the downstream demand for thermal coal was poor, and procurement slowed down. There is a certain downward space for coal prices, and the CT0 profit remained high. Due to the tight supply - demand situation, the price of methanol at the production area was firm, and the profit of inland MTO was under pressure and deteriorated [11][64]. Market Structure Analysis Basis and Spread - Basis: The spot price of plastic standard products also declined, with certain shipment pressure. The basis strengthened slightly compared to before the holiday. The basis in East China strengthened by 30 to around - 100 yuan per ton, the basis in North China strengthened by 50 to around - 130 yuan per ton, and the basis in South China strengthened by 40 to around - 100 yuan per ton [19]. - Non - standard basis: The trend of non - standard basis was stronger than that of standard products [19]. - Regional spread: The North China - East China spread remained at a medium level, and the South China - East China spread further weakened [31]. - Related product spread: The injection molding - drawing spread was at a low level, and the low - melt copolymer - drawing spread strengthened [32]. - Disk spread: The 1 - 5 month spread remained at around - 40. The L - PP01 spread strengthened slightly to over 300, and the PP - V01 spread was relatively stable. Overall, the supply pressure of PP was greater, while there were more maintenance activities for L and the demand for agricultural films started, and the demand recovery of PP was relatively slow, so the L - PP spread gradually repaired upwards. After the holiday, the price of PP dropped more due to the pressure on the cost side of PG, further strengthening the spread [50]. Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - Production profit: The profit of oil - based PP remained at a relatively good level in recent years; the profit of PDH - based PP improved month - on - month; the profit of CT0 remained high, while the profit of inland MTO was under pressure and deteriorated [64]. - Domestic output and load: This week, the PP output was 79.62 million tons (+1.62 million tons), and the operating rate was 77.75% (+1.14%). During the holiday, the devices were restarted one after another, leading to an increase in PP output and a decline in loss volume, intensifying the supply pressure [10][105]. - Scheduling ratio: The increase in the scheduling ratio of drawing may indicate that the short - term standard product is stronger than the non - standard product, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [114]. US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - US dollar price: The prices in Northwestern Europe and the Americas have fallen from high levels. The Asian price has continued to be weak, with oversupply and weak demand in the Far East of CRB, and low prices in Southeast Asia due to sufficient supply and the impact of low - cost domestic goods; the supply - demand situation in South Asia is also poor [126]. - Import - export profit: The domestic market is in weak consolidation. Production enterprises' export offers remain stable, but overseas inquiries are few, and the transaction volume is limited. In terms of imports, China's prices are at the "global low point," and it is difficult to open import arbitrage opportunities [144]. Downstream Operating Rate - After the holiday, the comprehensive downstream operating rate was 51.76%, a slight month - on - month decline of 0.08% compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.38%, while the operating rates of BOPP and CPP decreased by 0.67% and 1.68% respectively. The operating rate of PP pipe materials remained stable, and the operating rate of modified PP increased by 0.38% [10][147]. Position, Trading Volume and Warehouse Receipt Situation - The position volumes of PP_01, PP_05, and PP_09 contracts on October 10, 2025, were 658,901, 549,555, and 700,000 respectively [223][224][227]. - The trading volumes of PP_01, PP_05, and PP_09 contracts on October 10, 2025, were 1,500,000, 927,840, and 2,781,596 respectively [228][237][235]. - The number of registered PP warehouse receipts on October 10, 2025, was 17,191 [241].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7349 | 7364 | 7371 | 7332 | 13 | 0.18 | 245393 | 14157 | | Plastic 2605 | 7351 | 7367 | 7372 | 7338 | 15 | 0.20 | 13656 | 307 | | Plastic 2509 | 7298 | 7314 | 7322 | 7281 | 20 | 0.27 | 252486 | -18026 | | PP2601 | 7101 | 7120 | 7124 | 7085 | 24 | 0.34 | 284278 | 19893 | | PP2605 | 7092 | 7111 | 7114 | 7081 | 20 | 0.28 | 13958 | 953 | | PP2509 | 7069 | 7095 | 7099 | 7056 | 29 | 0.41 | 201314 | -27702 | [5] Spot Market - LLDPE Prices: In North China, 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton; in East China, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton; in South China, 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] - PP Prices: North China, 6920 - 7070 yuan/ton; East China, 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton; South China, 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [8] - Propylene Price: Shandong market, 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] 3. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upward, closing at 7329 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.37%); PP closed at 7091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.21%). Futures' warm - oscillating trend boosted the spot market, with most producer prices stable and little change in cost support [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream device operating rates continued to rise. PP's maintenance losses were still high but decreasing as previous maintenance devices restarted and new maintenance devices were few. A 900,000 - ton/year capacity addition plan in Ningbo Daxie Phase II was approaching. For PE, Jilin Petrochemical's production expansion in late July and potential new capacity from ExxonMobil Huizhou in August increased supply pressure [6] - **Demand Side**: Downstream factories were still affected by the off - season and had low inventory - building willingness due to losses. Demand was expected to improve in the second half of the month, and most downstream enterprises maintained a low - inventory strategy [6] - **Cost Side**: Coal prices were likely to rise due to production inspections and peak - summer coal demand. Crude oil prices might fall again due to OPEC+ production increase and under - expected peak - season performance [6] - **Outlook**: The loose fundamental situation would limit upward price movement. With new capacity coming online and the expected "Golden September" peak - season inventory - building demand in the second half of the month, polyolefin prices might bottom out and then rebound [6] 4. Industry News - On August 12, 2025, major producers' inventory was 815,000 tons, down 20,000 tons (2.40%) from the previous day, compared with 830,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Some major propylene producers in certain areas planned to shut down, supporting the market supply. Downstream factories' purchasing enthusiasm increased, and propylene producers raised prices significantly and limited sales [7]