Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If there is no real production cut, the end of the 01 contract for glass and soda ash is downward. Currently, glass has high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and the expected production cut has not been realized; soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious over - supply. However, there are expectations of cost increases for both glass and soda ash in the long - term [2]. - Without substantial cold repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.83% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 74.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.50% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 8.5% [1]. Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short sell glass futures (FG2601) at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (FG601C1200) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy glass futures (FG2601) at 1000 - 1050 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (FG601P1000) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short sell soda ash futures (SA2601) at 1350 - 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SA601C1400) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SA601P1200) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. Market Data Glass - On October 31, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1232, down 11 (-0.88%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1328, up 1 (0.08%); the 01 contract was 1083, down 8 (-0.73%) [7]. - The average spot price of glass in the Shahe area on October 31, 2025, was 1118, down 3 from the previous day [8]. Soda Ash - On October 31, 2025, the price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1316, down 8 (-0.6%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1383, up 1 (0.07%); the 01 contract was 1225, down 10 (-0.81%) [9]. - The average spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on October 31, 2025 [10]. Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - There are still expectations of cost increases (fuel and raw materials) for glass and soda ash, which will affect the pricing of far - month contracts [6]. - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely ruled out and may be repeatedly traded [6]. - After the spot price of glass was reduced, production and sales improved, and manufacturers had a slight reduction in inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed [6]. Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upper and middle reaches of both glass and soda ash, and doubts about the downstream's ability to absorb, resulting in an off - peak season during the peak period [9]. - There are supply pressures. There is an expectation of ignition for glass production lines, and there is future production - capacity expansion pressure for soda ash [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology meeting on Wednesday did not release any signals, and the expected production cut was disappointed again [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - If there is no real production cut, the end - point of the 01 - contract for glass and soda ash is downward due to the existing structural contradictions. In reality, near - term glass data is poor with high intermediate inventory, and soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious oversupply. However, there is an expectation of cost increase for both glass and soda ash in the long run [2] - Without substantial cold - repair or production cut of glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread; it is recommended to exit and wait for the single - side short positions [5] Group 3: Price Forecasts - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 85.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.66% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.9% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When glass inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell FG2601 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1300 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When glass inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy FG2601 futures at 1050 - 1100 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1060 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When soda ash inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When soda ash inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Market Data Glass - On 2025/10/22, the glass 05 contract was 1241 (up 5 or 0.4% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1330 (up 8 or 0.61%), and the 01 contract was 1094 (up 7 or 0.64%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (down 3), the 9 - 1 spread was 236 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 147 (up 2). The 01 - contract basis in Shahe was 33 (down 9), and in Hubei was - 14 (down 7). The 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 114 (down 7), and in Hubei was - 161 (down 5) [6] - The average spot price of glass in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1127 (down 2 from the previous day). Regional prices in North China were 1140 (down 20), in Northeast China were 1120 (down 30), and in Jiangsu were 1280 (down 20) [7] Soda Ash - On 2025/10/22, the soda ash 05 contract was 1308 (up 10 or 0.77% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1370 (up 9 or 0.66%), and the 01 contract was 1223 (up 13 or 1.07%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 62 (up 1, - 1.59% change), the 9 - 1 spread was 147 (down 4, - 2.65% change), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 (up 3, - 3.41% change). The Shahe heavy - base basis was - 73 (down 13), and the Qinghai heavy - base basis was - 273 (down 13) [7] - The heavy - alkali market price in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1173 (up 23 from the previous day). The price differences between heavy and light alkali in different regions were stable [8][9] Group 6: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - There is an expectation of cost increase for glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials), which affects the pricing of far - month contracts [4] - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [4] Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream of glass and soda ash, and doubts about downstream acceptance, resulting in a lackluster peak season [4] - There are supply pressures. Glass production lines have ignition expectations, and soda ash has future production - capacity expansion pressure [4] - The glass spot market is weak, with price cuts and poor production - sales ratios [5]