Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include expectations for post - holiday demand and macro - policies for float glass, and the unchanged expectation of oversupply for soda ash. The high inventory of glass in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended [1]. - The short - term trading logic for glass focuses on cold - repair and ignition expectations, while for soda ash, it follows the marginal cost. The long - term trading expectations involve changes in supply, demand verification, and cost logic [2]. - The overall demand for glass is weak, with both cold - repair and ignition expectations and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, and its price elasticity is limited. The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before approaching delivery, and the fundamentals lack clear drivers [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - For float glass, short - term expectations are about post - holiday demand, and medium - to long - term are about macro - policies. Current supply and demand show a decline in daily melting to 14.86 tons, unexpected Spring Festival inventory accumulation, and high middle - stream inventory. New ignition plans also limit the price increase. Demand needs verification [1]. - Soda ash has limited valuation elasticity due to the unchanged oversupply expectation. It can only follow the cost. A price increase requires supply or cost "stories", and a decrease needs rapid inventory accumulation of upstream manufacturers [1]. - In reality, the high middle - stream inventory of glass needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended, remaining in an oversupply situation [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Glass has weak overall demand, with cold - repair and ignition expectations and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, and its price elasticity is limited [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before approaching delivery, and the fundamentals lack clear drivers [6]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The average spot price increased by 10 yuan on March 7, 2026, compared with the previous day. The 05 - contract price increased by 3.03%, the 09 - contract by 2.58%, and the 01 - contract by 2.37% [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The 05 - contract price increased by 1.39%, the 09 - contract by 1.41%, and the 01 - contract by 0.99% on March 6, 2026, compared with the previous day [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some glass production lines still have cold - repair expectations in March [12]. - **Negative Information**: There are ignition expectations for glass in Shahe in March. High middle - stream inventory of glass persists, and the far - month demand expectation has no elasticity. Soda ash production is at a high level, maintaining supply pressure [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions in industrial policies. - Glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transaction conditions [14]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The expectation of the glass 05 - contract is unclear, with weak supply and demand and no clear signal. Near - term spot pressure is high, and middle - stream inventory is high. There may be cost - increasing expectations in the far - month, but demand is unclear [15]. Basis and Spread Structure - Glass: The 5 - 9 spread fluctuates mainly in a range, with unclear supply - demand expectations and funds on the sidelines [19]. - Soda Ash: It maintains a C - structure, with industrial contradictions accumulating and the long - term oversupply pattern unchanged [20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits or are at the break - even point [35]. - Soda Ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1200 - 1220 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [35]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 8 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand. Some glass products have good exports [42]. - Soda Ash: The monthly average net export is 18 - 21 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand. The export in December exceeded 23 tons, maintaining high expectations [42]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - **Glass**: The daily melting of glass has declined to below 14.9 tons. There are still some cold - repair and ignition production lines to be realized in March, and the rhythm may depend more on prices [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production is 11.5 - 11.7 tons, and the weekly production is over 80 tons, reaching a historical high. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance of some soda ash manufacturers [53]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - **Glass**: Middle - stream inventory remains high, and spot pressure exists. Downstream processing plants are gradually resuming work, with inventory increasing and appropriate procurement of raw sheets. It is in the demand recovery period with high middle - stream inventory [55][56]. - **Soda Ash**: The daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass totals 23.64 tons, with a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 4.73 tons, showing a stable - to - weak trend. Photovoltaic glass has a high finished - product inventory, with over 40 days of inventory. Cold - repair and ignition coexist in the photovoltaic sector. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable - to - weak, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [66][67]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 79.637 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.629 million heavy boxes (+4.77%) and a year - on - year increase of 14.51%. The inventory days are 35.3 days, an increase of 1.5 days from the previous period. The inventory in Shahe continues to rise [76]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 194.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.28 tons. Among them, light soda ash is 102.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.88 tons, and heavy soda ash is 91.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 tons [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If there is no real production cut, the end of the 01 contract for glass and soda ash is downward. Currently, glass has high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and the expected production cut has not been realized; soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious over - supply. However, there are expectations of cost increases for both glass and soda ash in the long - term [2]. - Without substantial cold repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.83% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 74.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.50% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 8.5% [1]. Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short sell glass futures (FG2601) at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (FG601C1200) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy glass futures (FG2601) at 1000 - 1050 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (FG601P1000) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short sell soda ash futures (SA2601) at 1350 - 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SA601C1400) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SA601P1200) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. Market Data Glass - On October 31, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1232, down 11 (-0.88%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1328, up 1 (0.08%); the 01 contract was 1083, down 8 (-0.73%) [7]. - The average spot price of glass in the Shahe area on October 31, 2025, was 1118, down 3 from the previous day [8]. Soda Ash - On October 31, 2025, the price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1316, down 8 (-0.6%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1383, up 1 (0.07%); the 01 contract was 1225, down 10 (-0.81%) [9]. - The average spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on October 31, 2025 [10]. Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - There are still expectations of cost increases (fuel and raw materials) for glass and soda ash, which will affect the pricing of far - month contracts [6]. - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely ruled out and may be repeatedly traded [6]. - After the spot price of glass was reduced, production and sales improved, and manufacturers had a slight reduction in inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed [6]. Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upper and middle reaches of both glass and soda ash, and doubts about the downstream's ability to absorb, resulting in an off - peak season during the peak period [9]. - There are supply pressures. There is an expectation of ignition for glass production lines, and there is future production - capacity expansion pressure for soda ash [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology meeting on Wednesday did not release any signals, and the expected production cut was disappointed again [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - If there is no real production cut, the end - point of the 01 - contract for glass and soda ash is downward due to the existing structural contradictions. In reality, near - term glass data is poor with high intermediate inventory, and soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious oversupply. However, there is an expectation of cost increase for both glass and soda ash in the long run [2] - Without substantial cold - repair or production cut of glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread; it is recommended to exit and wait for the single - side short positions [5] Group 3: Price Forecasts - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 85.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.66% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.9% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When glass inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell FG2601 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1300 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When glass inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy FG2601 futures at 1050 - 1100 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1060 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When soda ash inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When soda ash inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Market Data Glass - On 2025/10/22, the glass 05 contract was 1241 (up 5 or 0.4% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1330 (up 8 or 0.61%), and the 01 contract was 1094 (up 7 or 0.64%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (down 3), the 9 - 1 spread was 236 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 147 (up 2). The 01 - contract basis in Shahe was 33 (down 9), and in Hubei was - 14 (down 7). The 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 114 (down 7), and in Hubei was - 161 (down 5) [6] - The average spot price of glass in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1127 (down 2 from the previous day). Regional prices in North China were 1140 (down 20), in Northeast China were 1120 (down 30), and in Jiangsu were 1280 (down 20) [7] Soda Ash - On 2025/10/22, the soda ash 05 contract was 1308 (up 10 or 0.77% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1370 (up 9 or 0.66%), and the 01 contract was 1223 (up 13 or 1.07%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 62 (up 1, - 1.59% change), the 9 - 1 spread was 147 (down 4, - 2.65% change), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 (up 3, - 3.41% change). The Shahe heavy - base basis was - 73 (down 13), and the Qinghai heavy - base basis was - 273 (down 13) [7] - The heavy - alkali market price in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1173 (up 23 from the previous day). The price differences between heavy and light alkali in different regions were stable [8][9] Group 6: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - There is an expectation of cost increase for glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials), which affects the pricing of far - month contracts [4] - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [4] Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream of glass and soda ash, and doubts about downstream acceptance, resulting in a lackluster peak season [4] - There are supply pressures. Glass production lines have ignition expectations, and soda ash has future production - capacity expansion pressure [4] - The glass spot market is weak, with price cuts and poor production - sales ratios [5]