证券研究报告 | 2026年01月06日 银行理财 2026 年 1 月月报 优于大市 2026：理财产品如何稳净值 年底收官，考虑到季末回表效应，理财行业规模小幅收缩，但同比已创历史 新高。根据普益数据，12 月末理财产品存量规模 31.6 万亿元，环比上 月减少 0.1 万亿元；结合同业交流口径，银行理财规模维持在 33 万亿 元左右，较 24 年底增长约 3 万亿元，同比增长 10%。2025 年银行理财 规模创历史新高，核心受益于低利率环境下，居民财富再配置带来的理 财需求扩张。 2026 年银行净值化转型深入，低风险偏好资金与净值波动之间的矛盾倒逼 理财公司加快创新步伐。随着估值整改全面落地，理财公司不得再使用传 统平滑估值等"估值魔法"，债市波动将更直接传导至产品净值；同时 估计银行体系约有 30 万亿元高息定期存款集中到期，居民财富再配置 亟须新的财富管理出口。面对风险偏好较低的理财客户，如何实现净值 稳定成为理财行业共同挑战，下一阶段银行理财针对"如何稳定净 值"，未来可能探索以下手法： 一是继续探索估值创新，尤其借力三方机构平滑波动。随着监管要求理财 公司全面采用中债、中证等机构提供的当日估 ...

Core Insights - The gold wholesale market in Shenzhen Shui Bei is experiencing a significant downturn due to rising international gold prices and new tax regulations, leading to a sharp decline in consumer activity and transaction volumes [1][2] Market Conditions - The international gold price has increased by over 50% this year, causing consumers to hesitate in making purchases, while new tax regulations have further exacerbated the situation by increasing the effective tax burden on gold processing businesses by approximately 7% [1][2] - The price difference between Shui Bei gold jewelry and branded gold jewelry has narrowed from 230 CNY per gram to about 137 CNY per gram, eroding the competitive pricing advantage of Shui Bei [1] Pricing Dynamics - A dual pricing system has emerged in the market, with some merchants quoting prices before tax to retain customers, while compliant merchants are unable to lower prices, leading to market disorder [2] - Some upstream suppliers have halted shipments due to a lack of demand from downstream buyers, with reports indicating that certain factories have temporarily ceased operations due to poor sales and cost pressures [2] Long-term Industry Outlook - Despite the short-term challenges, the new tax regulations are expected to benefit the long-term development of the industry by promoting compliance and concentrating market share among qualified, large-scale, and brand-advantaged companies [2] - The World Gold Council suggests that rising costs may hinder demand for gold jewelry in China, but this could also drive the industry to focus more on craftsmanship and design innovation rather than price competition [4] Consumer Trends - The demand for gold bars and coins remains unaffected by the new policies, but investors may increasingly purchase through members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange [4] - The widening gap between the purchase price and repurchase price of gold jewelry may reduce the enthusiasm for recycling gold jewelry [5] - Industry leaders like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji are responding by adjusting prices to pass on cost pressures and focusing on product design innovation and brand building to attract consumers [5] Future Strategies - The Guangdong Gold Association suggests that merchants can navigate challenges by adjusting product structures, developing lighter products, and implementing trade-in programs [5] - The World Gold Council emphasizes the importance of attracting younger consumers in a high gold price environment, with lighter and innovatively designed gold products expected to play a significant role in sales [5] Current Market Prices - As of November 11, the London gold price approached 4150 USD per ounce, while domestic brand gold jewelry prices have generally exceeded 1300 CNY per gram [5] - Analysts believe that expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are boosting demand for gold, maintaining a long-term upward trend in international gold prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with total scale surpassing 500 billion yuan by July 20, 2025, nearly doubling from early 2024, driven by increasing interest from institutional investors and innovative product designs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The total scale of bond ETFs reached over 500 billion yuan by July 20, 2025, with an increase of nearly 120 billion yuan in just the first half of July [1]. - The first batch of 10 bond ETFs raised nearly 30 billion yuan on their first day, indicating strong market demand [1]. - The bond ETF market is seeing a shift towards specialized products, such as those focusing on technology innovation bonds, which are characterized by low risk and flexible trading [1][4]. Group 2: Institutional Investor Dynamics - Approximately 85% of bond ETFs are held by institutional investors, including insurance funds and bank wealth management, highlighting the significant role of institutional capital in this market [2]. - Institutional investors face challenges in timing their investments, leading to a need for unique product offerings to retain their interest [2]. - There is a need for bond ETFs to be designed to meet the operational requirements of bank proprietary funds, which currently face regulatory constraints [2]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Market Positioning - There are numerous opportunities for product innovation within the bond ETF space, including green bonds, rural revitalization themes, and leveraged or inverse ETFs [3][4]. - Different investor segments have varying preferences, with institutional investors favoring long-duration rate bonds, while retail investors prefer T+0 redemption and monthly dividends [3]. - Cross-border investment needs can be addressed through bond ETFs that track international bond indices, allowing for diversified exposure without complex foreign exchange operations [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market for technology innovation bonds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with expectations for continued growth in related bond ETFs due to supportive policies and reduced issuance thresholds [4]. - Future bond ETFs are likely to focus on specific themes, such as green technology or semiconductor industry bonds, reflecting a trend towards differentiation in product offerings [4].

Core Insights - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has launched the Product Design Week (PDW), emphasizing the importance of product design as a key driver for business development [1][3] - The CEO of TME, Ross Liang, highlighted the need for designers to be passionate about their products and to collaborate closely with product managers to create a cohesive user experience [1][3] Group 1: Design Philosophy - The event established a design philosophy centered around passion, encouraging designers to love their products and advocate for them rather than merely executing tasks [1] - A unified thinking approach between designers and product managers is essential, requiring seamless communication and collaboration throughout all project stages [3] Group 2: Event Highlights - The PDW featured presentations from industry leaders, covering topics such as product innovation, aesthetic design cases, and cutting-edge AI perspectives [3] - Discussions ranged from the integration of traditional culture with modern design to the application of artificial intelligence in the design field, fostering valuable exchanges among participants [3] Group 3: Future Directions - TME aims to continue focusing on user-centered design, maintaining a commitment to innovation and enhancing product experiences for users [3]