Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao [5] Core Views - The performance of Shandong Hongqiao in Q3 2025 was impressive, with revenue reaching 116.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and net profit of 19.37 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year [1] - The profitability of electrolytic aluminum has rapidly improved, with the average price in Q3 2025 at 20,711 yuan per ton, a 6% increase year-on-year [1] - The company plans to transfer electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with a total of 44.8 million tons, 24.1 million tons, and 83.1 million tons scheduled for 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company issued 300 million USD of convertible bonds due in 2030, with an initial conversion price of 20.88 HKD per share [2] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 24 billion, 25.5 billion, and 27.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.9, 11.2, and 10.5 [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 163.76 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.9% year-on-year [4] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 24.03 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [4] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 2.52 yuan per share [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is estimated at 18.2% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 256.68 billion yuan by 2025 [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall supply of new soybeans this year is expected to be good, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point. The market's concern about the tight supply of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year is likely to ease. The domestic oil market is expected to be stronger than the meal market, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The short - term trend of the vegetable oil and meal sector may be weak. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom around the National Day. The fundamentals of live pigs are weak, and the futures price is bearish. The egg futures are weakly adjusted, and the far - month contracts in the first half of next year can be considered for long positions [2][4][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Short - term attention should be paid to the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans. The new soybean supply is expected to be good. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has rebounded, and the price of imported soybeans is weak. The export of Argentine soybeans will increase significantly in the short term, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. The export of Argentine soybeans will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point [2] Soybeans & Doupo - On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or the export volume reaches $7 billion. The previous export tax rates were 26% and 24.5% respectively. The import volume is worthy of continuous attention. The import of Argentine doupo may impact the current cost system. The short - term market is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the continuous contract [3] Douyou & Palm Oil - The export of Argentine soybeans will increase significantly in the short term, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. As long as the Brazilian soybean production in the 25/26 season is normal, the subsequent production will be connected. In October, attention should be paid to the actual sales and export of Argentine soybeans, and the export volume of douyou and doupo is likely to increase. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be marginally loose. The domestic oil market is expected to be stronger than the meal market, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The export of Argentine soybeans will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point. The supply of US soybeans is marginally loose, which will drag down the US douyou market. The final policy of US douyou for biodiesel will be announced in October, so the US douyou market is likely to be weaker than the Malaysian palm oil market in the short term [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The domestic vegetable oil and meal sector fell today. The zero - tariff measure of Argentina on grains and finished products still has a negative impact. Caiyou is still in the inventory reduction stage. Due to the time required for Australian rapeseed to arrive at the port, coastal oil mills may face shutdown in October. Caiyou is expected to be relatively stronger than other oils. The unit protein price difference between soybean meal and caipo is low, and the demand for caipo is suppressed. The demand for aquatic feed will decline seasonally, and the demand is expected to be mediocre. The Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest period, and its export is lower than the annual average for five consecutive weeks due to the lack of demand from the Chinese market. The overall short - term trend of the vegetable oil and meal sector may be weak [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures rebounded slightly today. The weather in the main domestic corn - producing areas this year is mostly good, and the new - season corn production is relatively optimistic. However, as the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China increases, the opening price has continued to fall and has not stopped falling. Around the National Day, the Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The futures contracts of live pigs all fell to new lows, and funds increased short positions. The spot price is still weak, and the average selling price has reached a new low. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork procurement this week, but the volume is still limited. The overall supply pressure in the second half of the year is large, and the fundamentals are weak. There is no inflection point in the number of fertile sows yet. The futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - The egg futures are weakly adjusted, and funds have reduced positions by more than 20,000 lots. The spot price is stable and weak, and the spot quotes in many places have been lowered. Since the peak season in September, the rebound of the spot price reached a phased high last Wednesday. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the driving force for the spot price to rise significantly is insufficient. After the National Day, the egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry still needs to deeply reduce production capacity. Although the elimination speed has accelerated since August, there is still a long way to go. The number of chick replenishment in July and August was at a low level, and the pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is estimated that the peak of this round of production capacity will be reached in the fourth quarter of this year. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, long positions can be considered, and for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - selling funds [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, driven by higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity prices [1]. - The significant growth in profits is attributed to the increase in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The company is accelerating the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, having shut down a 721,000-ton production line and replacing it with new capacity [2]. - The company is positioned for significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, while also benefiting from a notable undervaluation as a Hong Kong-listed stock [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 150.949 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.676 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.1% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.33 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8 times in 2025, decreasing to 5.9 times by 2027 [4].