证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 31 年 月 日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） Q3 山东宏桥业绩表现亮眼，铝一体化布局优势显著 事件：公司披露子公司山东宏桥 2025 年三季度业绩公告，2025 年前三 季度山东宏桥实现营收 1169.3 亿元，同比+6%；净利润 193.7 亿元，同 比+23%。单季来看，25Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现营收 402/380/387 亿元，同 比+16%/+2%/+2%，25Q3 环比+2%；实现净利润 64/61/69 亿元，同 比+47%/+11%/18%，25Q3 环比+14%。 电解铝盈利能力快速提升，25Q3 业绩表现亮眼。1）价，据 SMM 数据 统计，Q3 电解铝均价为 20,711 元/吨，同比+6%，环比+3%。氧化铝 价格为 3,165 元/吨，同比-19%，环比+4%。2）成本，据 SMM 数据统 计，25Q3 山东电解铝完全成本为 15299 元/吨，环比-1%；云南电解铝 完全成本为 15445 元/吨，环比-6%。3）利润，据 SMM 数据统计，Q3 电解铝行业利润 4,125 元/吨，同比+128%，环比+ ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购价格的指引。今年大豆新作总体供应预期向好。国内大豆和进口大豆价差反 弹,进口大豆价格疲软,由于阿根廷临时取消农产品出口税,以便于增加美元收入,缓解比索的贬值压力,因 此阿根廷豆类品种出口短期会有明显的增量。即使中国不采购美国大豆，叠加中国大豆还有庞大的库存，也容 易使得明年一季度中国大豆 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, driven by higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity prices [1]. - The significant growth in profits is attributed to the increase in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The company is accelerating the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, having shut down a 721,000-ton production line and replacing it with new capacity [2]. - The company is positioned for significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, while also benefiting from a notable undervaluation as a Hong Kong-listed stock [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 150.949 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.676 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.1% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.33 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8 times in 2025, decreasing to 5.9 times by 2027 [4].