美国搬家、物品搬运及仓储租赁服务提供商U-Haul（UHAL）数据显示，亚利桑那州在美国人的搬迁目 的地中排名第7，高昂的房价和房贷不确定性使迁移潮从峰值水平有所回落。 美国搬家、物品搬运及仓储租赁服务提供商U-Haul（UHAL）数据显示，亚利桑那州在美国人的搬迁目 的地中排名第7，高昂的房价和房贷不确定性使迁移潮从峰值水平有所回落。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1: Consumer Behavior Changes - The trend of downgraded consumption is becoming mainstream, with high-end brands facing a collective downturn as consumer traffic in premium malls in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has decreased by 18% year-on-year, while affordable brands like Miniso and NetEase Yanxuan have seen sales surge by 32.6% [1] - This shift is not merely a reaction to economic downturns but reflects a rational awakening among the middle class, as consumers prioritize practical value over symbolic value, leading to anxiety in the luxury goods sector [1] Group 2: Urban Migration Trends - There is a significant net outflow of population from first-tier cities, with 632,000 people leaving Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in 2024, while new first-tier cities like Chengdu, Xi'an, and Changsha are experiencing population growth exceeding 500,000 [3] - The high cost of living in first-tier cities, exemplified by a housing price-to-income ratio exceeding 20:1, is driving this migration, as individuals seek more affordable living conditions in emerging cities [3] Group 3: Revival of Physical Bookstores - The number of physical bookstores in China has increased by 6,700 in 2024, with hybrid bookstores achieving a customer spending rate 1.85 times higher than traditional bookstores [3] - The social aspect of these bookstores, such as coffee areas and community events, is a key factor in their success, indicating a desire for real social interactions in a digital age [3] Group 4: Resurgence of Traditional Crafts - The revival of traditional crafts is being led by younger generations, with 67% of artisans on Douyin being post-95s, highlighting a shift towards valuing craftsmanship over fast consumption [5] - This trend suggests a changing societal definition of success, as young people are willing to pursue less lucrative but personally fulfilling careers in traditional crafts [5] Group 5: Digital Detox Movement - A digital detox movement is emerging among young people, with daily internet usage among the 18-25 age group decreasing from 6.2 hours to 5.6 hours in 2023, and sales of feature phones increasing by 85% [6] - This trend reflects a backlash against excessive digitalization, as individuals seek to improve their quality of life and work efficiency by reducing screen time [6] Group 6: Rise of Flexible Employment - The number of freelancers in China has reached 240 million, with 35% identifying as "slash youth," indicating a shift away from traditional career paths [8] - This flexible income model allows individuals to diversify their income sources, but it also raises concerns about social security coverage and job stability for this vulnerable group [8] Group 7: Interconnected Social Phenomena - The various trends observed, such as downgraded consumption, urban migration, bookstore revival, traditional craft resurgence, digital detox, and flexible employment, are interconnected and reflect a broader societal redefinition of what constitutes a good life [10] - These phenomena indicate a societal progression rather than mere anomalies, prompting a reevaluation of existing systems and policies to align with these changes [11][15]

Core Insights - A significant population migration trend is emerging in China, with over half of the population expected to flow into several core cities [1][3] - The attractiveness of these cities is driven by better job opportunities, industry policies, and public services, particularly in education and healthcare [4][8] - The potential for a rebound in housing prices is complex, influenced by both population influx and ongoing policy regulations [5][7] Population Migration - The migration is primarily from third and fourth-tier cities experiencing industrial decline to first and second-tier cities with abundant job opportunities [3] - Cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan are seeing substantial net inflows, with Hangzhou reportedly gaining tens of thousands of residents last year [3][8] Housing Market Dynamics - The introduction of new policies, such as reduced down payments and interest rates, has provided a boost to the market, but high inventory levels in lower-tier cities may limit immediate price surges [7] - Cities with significant population inflows, like Shenzhen and Hangzhou, are likely to see stabilization and potential increases in housing prices [7][10] Future Urban Landscape - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen will continue to be primary population magnets, while cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan are emerging as new hubs [8] - The development of digital economies and rich educational resources in these cities is attracting talent and industries [8] Implications for Individuals - For individuals owning property in these core cities, the trend suggests a high probability of asset appreciation, while those without property may need to act quickly to secure housing [12] - The trend indicates a preference for urban living, with fewer individuals likely to leave major cities for smaller ones, as opportunities in larger cities remain more abundant [12]

Group 1 - Brisbane has become the latest Australian city to join the "million-dollar club," with the median price of detached houses surpassing 1 million AUD for the first time, reaching 1.006 million AUD in May, up from 996,000 AUD in April and 942,000 AUD in May 2024 [1][3] - The median house price in Brisbane continued to rise in June, reaching 1.011 million AUD, making it the second-highest city for house prices in Australia for nine consecutive months [3] - The price gap between Brisbane and Sydney is significant, with a difference of 549,000 AUD, slightly down from the peak of 567,000 AUD in October last year [3] Group 2 - Brisbane's house prices have surged by 76.1% from June 2020 to June 2025, driven primarily by interstate migration due to cost of living and lifestyle considerations [5] - The population of Brisbane grew by 9.2% from June 2020 to June 2024, adding 235,000 residents, compared to a national growth rate of 6% [5] - Although house price growth remains robust, the rate of increase is slowing, with a quarterly rise of 1.9% compared to 3.5% in June 2024 and a peak of 10.2% in the three months ending November 2021 [5] Group 3 - A property in Melbourne's Brunswick West sold for 1.38 million AUD after competitive bidding, highlighting the demand for three-bedroom homes in the area [5]

文：任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要，又充满争议；既事关国家兴衰，又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对，在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量，势大力沉，是典型的"灰犀牛"，人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 在经济学中，人口与资本、技术一起在供给侧决定经济潜在增长率，是引发经济增速变 动、经济结构转型的长周期变量，同时，人口的数量和结构还在需求侧影响着消费、投资等领 域。 因此，人口研究至关重要。 我们长期以来专注于人口研究，试图以科学家的精神、建设 性的态度，系统客观地对人口方面的问题进行分析研究，旨在帮助读者厘清逻辑、明晰真相、 看清未来，推动社会进步。我们长期以来建言放开生育、鼓励生育、降低生育养育教育成本， 与梁建章、黄文政等老师一起发起成立育娲人口研究这一公益研究机构。 一、中国视角：少子老龄化时代来临，人口变迁带来哪些挑战和机遇 人口周期是指人口经历老一代陆续死亡、新一代不断出生、世代更替的人口再生产过程及 其引发的经济社会变化。个体生命周期的加总成为人口周期，主要表现为生育率下滑、老龄化 加重、人力资本水平提高、人口迁 ...

文：任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要，又充满争议；既事关国家兴衰，又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对，在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量，势大力沉，是典型的"灰犀牛"，人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 在经济学中，人口与资本、技术一起在供给侧决定经济潜在增长率，是引发经济增速变 动、经济结构转型的长周期变量，同时，人口的数量和结构还在需求侧影响着消费、投资等领 域。 因此，人口研究至关重要。 我们长期以来专注于人口研究，试图以科学家的精神、建设 性的态度，系统客观地对人口方面的问题进行分析研究，旨在帮助读者厘清逻辑、明晰真相、 看清未来，推动社会进步。我们长期以来建言放开生育、鼓励生育、降低生育养育教育成本， 与梁建章、黄文政等老师一起发起成立育娲人口研究这一公益研究机构。 少子老龄化带来一系列重大而深远的影响和挑战，比如经济潜在增速下降、储蓄投资率下 降、劳动力成本上升、创新创业活力下降、资产估值中枢下行、社会负担加重等。 过去，中 国依靠庞大且年轻的人口红利和高储蓄投资率带来的高资本投入，支撑改革开放后经济的快速 增长。2 ...

文：任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要，又充满争议；既事关国家兴衰，又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对，在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量，势大力沉，是典型的"灰犀牛"，人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 在经济学中，人口与资本、技术一起在供给侧决定经济潜在增长率，是引发经济增速变 动、经济结构转型的长周期变量，同时，人口的数量和结构还在需求侧影响着消费、投资等领 域。 因此，人口研究至关重要。 我们长期以来专注于人口研究，试图以科学家的精神、建设 性的态度，系统客观地对人口方面的问题进行分析研究，旨在帮助读者厘清逻辑、明晰真相、 看清未来，推动社会进步。我们长期以来建言放开生育、鼓励生育、降低生育养育教育成本， 与梁建章、黄文政等老师一起发起成立育娲人口研究这一公益研究机构。 一、中国视角：少子老龄化时代来临，人口变迁带来哪些挑战和机遇 人口周期是指人口经历老一代陆续死亡、新一代不断出生、世代更替的人口再生产过程及 其引发的经济社会变化。个体生命周期的加总成为人口周期，主要表现为生育率下滑、老龄化 加重、人力资本水平提高、人口迁 ...