经济观察报 . 以下文章来源于经济观察报 ，作者蔡越坤 经济观察报是专注于财经新闻与经济分析的全国性综合财经类媒体，创办于2001年。聚焦商道、商技和 商机，以锐度、悦度、广度、深度的报道形成了权威的媒体公信力和影响力。 国庆节回乡，二手房和新盘的上涨依旧是饭桌上最热的谈资。哪套独栋别墅刚挂就已经被客户预定 了，哪个新盘客户已经开始排队摇号，关于房子的故事在这座小城轮番上演。 付倩倩的经历并非个例。当一、二线城市在调控与观望中跌跌不休时，定边却像驶入了另一条轨道。 付倩倩说，截至2025年10月，定边县新开盘商品房均价已普遍突破5000元/平米，而2022年同期尚不 足4000元/平米。三年间，县城新房价格累计上涨逾25%，涨幅明显。 与之形成鲜明对照的，是陕西省会西安房市的冰冷行情。贝壳研究院数据显示，2025年9月西安二手 房均价12234元/㎡，同比再跌10.1%，环比也下滑1.4%；自2022年二季度攀上约1.6万元/㎡的历史顶 峰后，便一路下坠，三年间跌去近四分之一，与全国多数一、二线城市的走势相似。 本文来自微信公众号： 经济观察报 （ID：eeo-com-cn） ，作者：蔡越坤，原文标题：《房价 ...

t 1882 1 t IT 1 1 1 t I 蔡越坤/摄 "证都没到手，倒先赚了近六万元。"付倩倩自己都觉得不可思议。 9月28日，付倩倩刚入了手一套定边县城核心地段的二手房。过户手续办完，房产证还没捂热，国庆长假就已到来。 谁料假期头一天，带看客户当场拍板：42.8万元，全款，不算增值税、中介费，以及所有税费——而她几天前拿下这套房时，总价还不到37万元。 房子不满两年，5.3%的增值税外加杂七杂八的税费合计超7%，买家却连眼都不眨，付倩倩颇为激动。 2024年开始，付倩倩便一头扎进定边县的房屋中介行当。短短一年，她亲眼见证这座陕北小城房价"一路狂飙"。 记者 蔡越坤 国庆节回乡，二手房和新盘的上涨依旧是饭桌上最热的谈资。哪套独栋别墅刚挂就已经被客户预定了，哪个新盘客户已经开始排队摇号，关于房子的故事在 这座小城轮番上演。 付倩倩的经历并非个例。当一、二线城市在调控与观望中跌跌不休时，定边却像驶入了另一条轨道。付倩倩说，截至2025年10月，定边县新开盘商品房均价 已普遍突破5000元/平米，而2022年同期尚不足4000元/平米。三年间，县城新房价格累计上涨逾25%，涨幅明显。 与之形成鲜明对照的，是陕 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Dingbian County is experiencing a significant upward trend, contrasting sharply with the declining prices in major cities like Xi'an, driven by high demand and limited supply [4][5][21]. Group 1: Real Estate Trends - Dingbian County's new housing prices have increased by over 25% in three years, with average prices surpassing 5000 yuan per square meter as of October 2025, compared to less than 4000 yuan in 2022 [4][5]. - In contrast, Xi'an's second-hand housing prices have dropped by 10.1% year-on-year as of September 2025, reflecting a broader trend of declining prices in many first- and second-tier cities [5][20]. - The county's real estate market is characterized by a scarcity of new housing projects, which has contributed to the rapid price increases [18]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Dingbian County is recognized as the largest oil and gas production county in China, with proven oil reserves of 1.618 billion tons and natural gas reserves of 300 billion cubic meters, significantly bolstering its local economy [7][8]. - The local economy heavily relies on the oil industry, which has led to increased disposable income among residents, further fueling demand for housing [8][9]. Group 3: Buyer Demographics - The primary buyers in Dingbian's real estate market include those purchasing homes for marriage and families seeking to secure school placements for their children, indicating a strong demand for housing [9][10]. - The trend of rural population migration to urban areas has intensified, with many families moving to the county for educational opportunities, thereby increasing housing demand [12]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the current upward trend in housing prices, there are concerns about sustainability, with some residents expressing doubts about the long-term viability of the price increases [15][17]. - The potential influx of new housing projects in the coming years may shift the supply-demand balance, leading to uncertainty about future price stability [19].

还买得起吗？ 虽然9月末的会议上没有降息，但是此前央行降息带来的信贷宽松效应， 已经让全澳几乎所有首府城市的房价纷纷创下新高。 而央行行长Michele Bullock则警告称： 澳洲住房市场的供需失衡问题，可能还要多年才能真正缓解。 来自Cotality的数据显示： 各大城市房价全面上扬： 布里斯班涨幅更猛，9月上涨1.1%，年内累计涨幅6.9%。 这些涨幅与澳央行自2月启动的降息密切相关。 当时现金利率为4.35%，至今已降至3.6%。 Cotality研究总监Tim Lawless表示： 利率下调叠加供应短缺与强劲需求，是房价持续上涨的关键因素。 Bullock在会后新闻发布会上坦言： 利率走低对房市的刺激作用 "确实令人头痛" ，但当前最重要的目标仍是控制通胀。 她指出： 尽管各级政府已开始采取措施增加住房供应，但要见效恐怕还需时日。 我已经说过很多次，住房市场的问题是结构性供给短缺。 Lawless称： 自2月以来，现金利率已累计下调75个基点，这对楼市活跃度起到了关键支撑作用。 他指出： 利率下降使借贷能力提升约7%，也提振了消费者信心。 而信心，是人们做出重大财务决策的重要前提。 尽管楼市热度不 ...

Core Insights - The recent price increase in real estate markets across various second-tier cities in China indicates a potential market recovery rather than a mere risk signal [1][10][14] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Over 20 second-tier cities have announced the cancellation of sales discounts, with significant price increases observed in 8 cities since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The cities experiencing price increases are primarily located in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, characterized by low inventory turnover periods, declining new supply, and rising transaction volumes [2][5] - For example, in Xuzhou, new land supply decreased by 35% in 2024 compared to 2023, while new construction area fell by 28%, indicating a tightening supply coinciding with growing demand [2][5] Group 2: Buyer Behavior and Demand Shifts - The proportion of improvement-driven buyers in third- and fourth-tier cities has risen to 48%, the highest in five years, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing demands [5][7] - Sales data shows that these cities have a housing absorption rate exceeding 80%, with some popular projects experiencing buyer queues, suggesting a solid market foundation for price increases [5][7] Group 3: Developer and Government Influences - Developers are under financial pressure, leading them to raise prices to improve profitability, especially for projects acquired during high land cost periods [6][10] - Local governments are also motivated to support price increases as land sale revenues are crucial for their budgets, especially in light of a 12.8% decline in national land sale revenues in 2024 [6][10] Group 4: Market Segmentation and Future Outlook - The price increases are primarily seen in the new housing market, while second-hand housing prices remain stable, indicating a more proactive stance from developers rather than a passive market reaction [7][10] - The current price trends reflect a structural differentiation in the market, where cities with strong industrial support and population inflow see price increases, while those lacking such fundamentals continue to struggle [7][10] Group 5: Economic Implications - Moderate price increases can positively impact local economies by restoring market confidence and stimulating related industries such as construction and home furnishings [8][10] - However, rapid price increases could burden ordinary families, particularly first-time buyers, raising concerns about affordability and overall consumer spending [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that population concentration in major cities is a global trend, and China is experiencing a similar shift, with expectations of significant population growth in urban areas [3][4][6] - Currently, 350 million people live in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan areas, accounting for 24.7% of the national population [4] - By 2035, urbanization rates in China are projected to exceed 75% [4] Group 2 - Major urban clusters expected to attract over 50% of the population include the Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, Beijing-Tianjin, and Yangtze River Delta [6][7][9][13] - The Pearl River Delta is highlighted for its strong economic and cultural development, with cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen leading the way [7] - The Chengdu-Chongqing urban cluster has seen rapid growth in recent years, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors [9] Group 3 - The Beijing-Tianjin urban cluster is recognized for its political and economic significance, with Beijing as a cultural and educational hub [11] - The Yangtze River Delta is noted for its economic and financial strength, with cities like Shanghai, Suzhou, and Hangzhou providing diverse opportunities [13] - The attractiveness of large cities is attributed to better resources, more job opportunities, and broader economic benefits that extend to surrounding areas [15] Group 4 - Future population density in China has the potential to increase, with provincial capitals possibly reaching populations of over 20 million and first-tier cities potentially hitting 40-50 million [16] - The influx of population into these cities is expected to create supply-demand tensions in the housing market, leading to potential price increases [16] - Recommendations for homebuyers include focusing on core urban clusters and considering surrounding smaller cities if first-tier cities are unaffordable [18][19]

Core Insights - The real estate market in Shanghai shows resilience, with new home prices experiencing a seasonal decline but at a slower rate compared to the previous year, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [1] - In July 2025, the average sales price of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 1.1% year-on-year, while Shanghai's prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year [1][11] - The average transaction price of new homes in Shanghai for the first seven months of 2025 was 80,800 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 5% increase from 2024 [2][11] Market Performance - The price increase in Shanghai is driven by strong performance in key districts such as Xuhui, Huangpu, and Pudong, with Pudong experiencing the highest price increase of 22% [2][11] - Specific districts like Xuhui Longhua and Huangpu Yuyuan have shown significant price appreciation, with Xuhui Longhua's prices increasing over 30% compared to 2024 [4][11] Project-Level Insights - High-end projects in core areas are supporting price increases, with luxury new launches maintaining price growth of over 10% [6][11] - Notable projects such as "Hai Shang Qing He Xi" and "Poly Expo Tianyue" have seen substantial price increases, contributing to the overall market strength [6][7] Peripheral Market Trends - Some projects in peripheral areas, like Jinshan New Town and Pudong Lingang New Town, have also seen price increases due to product advantages, with certain projects achieving over 10% price growth compared to 2024 [9][10][11] - Overall, the Shanghai new home market is expected to continue its upward trend, although the rate of increase may slow down [11]

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo's second-hand housing prices reached a new high in July, with an annual increase of 38%, indicating a strong demand in the real estate market [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The average price of second-hand homes in Tokyo hit a record high, reflecting a significant recovery in the real estate sector post-pandemic [2]. - The year-on-year increase of 38% marks one of the highest growth rates observed in recent years, showcasing robust buyer interest and limited supply [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The surge in housing prices may impact affordability for potential buyers, leading to concerns about market sustainability [2]. - This price increase could also influence related sectors, such as construction and home improvement, as higher property values often lead to increased investment in these areas [2].

Core Insights - The average price of newly built apartments in the Republika Srpska, Bosnia, increased by 7.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year [1] - A total of 640 new apartments were sold in the quarter, representing a year-on-year increase in transaction volume of 28.5% [1] - The producer price index for residential building materials showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a minor rise in construction costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Australian housing prices are experiencing significant increases despite the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the cash rate at 3.85% since early July, marking the sixth consecutive month of price rises [2][5]. Housing Price Trends - The median house price in Australia has reached AUD 844,000, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 3.3% [2]. - Sydney's median house price has surpassed AUD 1.5 million, with a 1.9% increase noted in the first half of 2025 [4][7]. - Melbourne's house prices have risen by 0.4% to AUD 952,000, with a cumulative increase of 2.8% this year [5]. - Darwin has recorded the highest price increase among capital cities, with a 7.7% rise in the first half of 2025 [5]. Rental Market Dynamics - National rental prices have increased by 1.1% over the last three months, with all capital cities experiencing rental hikes [5]. - The rental market remains tight due to a shortage of available rental properties, contributing to rising rents [5]. Interest Rate Outlook - The cash rate has decreased from 4.35% to 3.85% this year, with expectations of further cuts, potentially down to 3.6% [6][7]. - Market predictions indicate a 98% probability of a rate cut during the upcoming Reserve Bank meeting, with additional cuts anticipated in the following months [7]. Affordability Challenges - The average house price in Australia is now nearly 14 times the average annual salary, creating significant affordability issues [4][11]. - In Sydney, the income required to afford the median house price is approximately AUD 300,000, while in Melbourne it is around AUD 185,000 [7][11]. - Approximately 83% of Australian suburbs are deemed unaffordable for households earning the average pre-tax income of AUD 100,000 [12].