带着不满周岁的婴孩入住合租房，成为许多一二线城市年轻父母的选择。当渴望休息的上班族遇见深夜啼哭的婴儿，冲突一触即发，争议开始涌现。 争议背后是选项的缩水。当生育成本越来越高，薪资却越发窘迫，家庭资源有限的年轻父母，将合租生娃视为最后选择。 合租生娃 北京凌晨两点，眼看一岁多的孩子从睡梦中哼唧着醒来，出现要哭闹的迹象，28岁的小米从床上翻身爬起，心里一阵紧张。 小米和丈夫、还在襁褓中的儿子一起，住在一间客厅改造的卧室中。这是一套被打了隔断的两居室。一墙之隔后的主卧，被一位美甲店店主包下作为员工 宿舍，里面住着几位二十多岁的女孩，已经入睡。 由于墙体不隔音，哪边有点风吹草动，大家基本都能听清。在几次轻声哄睡不见效后，小米抱起孩子，快步出门，走进屋外的电梯间。 她哄着孩子一遍遍按电梯按钮。看着楼层数字的变化，小米开始安抚，怀里的孩子逐渐犯困，她才安心回到合租房里。 2025年春夏之交，自从13个月的孩子开始断奶，深夜外出哄娃的场景便频繁出现在小米的生活中。"孩子半夜总是醒，一睁眼就开始哭。"这段时间，为了 安抚孩子，她几乎没有睡过一个好觉。孩子有时在凌晨四五点醒来，小米只好推着婴儿车到小区里遛弯，等他睡着后，再回房 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the costs associated with childbirth, highlighting that various stages such as marriage check-ups, pregnancy check-ups, prenatal care, and delivery can be covered by free services, reimbursements, and subsidies, making childbirth potentially cost-effective in some regions [1] - Despite the initial low costs, the article warns that there will be significant expenses in the future related to raising a child, indicating that while the immediate financial burden may be light, long-term financial planning is essential [1] Group 2 - The title of the article suggests that manufacturing costs after the age of 25 are not high, implying a focus on the economic aspects of production and potential investment opportunities in this demographic [2] - The article may explore the implications of manufacturing costs on business strategies and market dynamics, although specific details are not provided in the summary [2]

Core Insights - Recent policies aimed at providing childcare subsidies and promoting free preschool education have alleviated the financial burden on families, but some businesses have taken advantage of this situation by raising product prices [1] - Parents have reported that the prices of essential maternal and infant products, such as milk powder, diapers, and complementary foods, have increased by tens of yuan, effectively offsetting the benefits of subsidies [1] - There is a need for closer monitoring of maternal and infant product prices, establishing a robust price monitoring mechanism to investigate and intervene in abnormal price hikes [1] - The industry requires further regulation of the pricing system for maternal and infant products, enhancing management of both online and offline sales channels to promote price transparency and reduce pricing irregularities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent policies aimed at reducing childcare costs and promoting consumption have been undermined by some businesses that have increased product prices under the guise of promotional activities, effectively negating the benefits of subsidies for families [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The introduction of childcare subsidies and the gradual implementation of free preschool education are intended to alleviate the financial burden on families [1]. - These measures are designed to boost consumer confidence and spending in the market [1]. Group 2: Market Response - Some retailers have taken advantage of these policies by raising prices on essential baby products such as milk powder, diapers, and complementary foods, with price increases ranging from several to tens of yuan [1]. - This price inflation has led to a situation where the actual financial relief provided by subsidies is diminished, as families find themselves paying more for necessary items [1]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - Many parents have expressed their concerns on social media regarding the rising costs of baby products, indicating a disconnect between policy intentions and market realities [1]. - The actions of certain businesses are seen as exploiting the situation, which could disrupt the intended market order and undermine the effectiveness of government initiatives [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses a new subsidy policy in China, providing 3,600 yuan per year for each child born after January 1, 2022, until the child reaches three years old [1][5][6] - The policy is expected to benefit approximately 28 million families, with the government allocating 100 billion yuan annually for this initiative [2][4] - This marks the first large-scale cash subsidy directly aimed at encouraging childbirth in China, indicating a significant policy shift [5][6][10] Group 2 - Despite the substantial financial commitment from the government, the marginal effect of the subsidy on ordinary families appears minimal, covering only 3.33% of the average annual household income [11][12] - The average cost of raising a child in China from birth to 17 years is estimated at 538,312 yuan, highlighting the disparity between the subsidy and actual costs [16][17] - The article emphasizes that the financial burden of raising children extends beyond direct costs, including significant time and opportunity costs for parents, particularly mothers [26][28][29] Group 3 - The article points out the challenges faced by families in urban areas, where high living costs and demanding work schedules contribute to a reluctance to have more children [40][44] - It contrasts the differing attitudes towards childbirth in urban and rural areas, with urban families often prioritizing career and financial stability over having more children [45][46] - The issue of gender imbalance in the population is also raised, with a significant surplus of males in the marriageable age group, complicating the birth rate situation [32][33][36] Group 4 - The article discusses the broader implications of declining birth rates, suggesting that financial incentives alone may not be sufficient to reverse the trend [61][66] - It highlights that societal values around family and child-rearing have shifted, with many viewing childbirth as a personal choice rather than a societal obligation [62][66] - The ongoing low birth rates are framed as part of a larger global trend, reflecting the complexities of modern life and economic conditions [65][66]

Core Viewpoint - The direct cash child-rearing subsidy represents a clear stance and is just the beginning of addressing the high costs associated with raising children in China [10]. Summary by Sections National Child-Rearing Costs - The annual child-rearing subsidy of 3,600 yuan is insufficient when compared to the average cost of raising a child to university, which exceeds 500,000 yuan, making the subsidy only about 2% of total costs over 18 years [3]. - For the first three years of a child's life, the costs amount to over 10,000 yuan, which represents nearly 15% of the total expenses [3]. Breakdown of Child-Rearing Costs - The average costs for raising a child from 0 to 17 years in China total 538,312 yuan, with significant expenses in various stages: - Pregnancy: 10,000 yuan (1.86%) - Delivery and postpartum care: 15,000 yuan (2.79%) - 0-2 years: 73,614 yuan (13.67% per year) - 3-5 years: 109,614 yuan (20.36% per year) - 6-14 years: 243,063 yuan (45.15% per year) - 15-17 years: 87,021 yuan (16.17% per year) [4]. International Comparison - China's child-rearing costs are among the highest globally, with a ratio of 6.3 times the per capita GDP, second only to South Korea [6]. Local Subsidy Initiatives - Local governments have previously implemented various child-rearing subsidies, such as in Hohhot, where families can receive up to 160,000 yuan for multiple children, significantly impacting local birth rates [7]. - The recent national subsidy is a baseline that local governments can exceed, potentially increasing financial support for families [7]. Future Implications - The projected cost of the subsidy could reach approximately 1 trillion yuan annually if the birth rate remains around 25 million over the next three years [8]. - Addressing the challenges of child-rearing will require more than just financial support; adjustments in maternity leave, reproductive technologies, and educational timelines are also necessary [10].

Government Policy & Support - The National Health Commission will work with relevant departments to reduce the cost of fertility, parenting, and education through multiple channels [1] - The care expenses for infants and young children under 3 years old will be included in the special additional deduction for individual income tax, and the deduction standard will be increased to 2,000 RMB per child per month [1] - Provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) have generally extended maternity leave to 158 days or more [1] - 15 days or so of spouse's paternity leave and 5-20 days of parental leave are established [1]

文：任泽平团队 导读 12月11日，中央经济工作会议在明年重点任务中提出"制定促进生育政策"。 11 月 27 日，国家卫生健康委召开会议落实国务院办公厅《关于加快完善生育支持政策体系推 动建设生育友好型社会的若干措施》，提出各地各部门要统筹谋划，推进各项政策措施落地见效。 这意味着生育支持体系将会加快构建。 自放开三孩以来，我国生育支持措施主要集中在经济支持、服务支持、时间支持、文化支持四 个方面。 1 ）经济支持方面，提供个税抵扣和生育补贴。 2023 年个税专项扣除标准从 1000 元 / 孩 / 月 提高到 2000 元 / 孩 / 月；生育补贴方面，当前 23 个省份的近 60 个城市和地区探索实施生育补贴 制度。 考虑地方财力不足及人口流动的税收跨区贡献等因素，建议国家层面拿出 GDP 的 2% 以 上，作为生育补贴发放。 2 ）服务支持方面，增加普惠托育服务供给 。 2020-2023 年千人托位数从 1.8 个增长至 3.4 个，已完成至目标的四分之三，但较法国 32.1 个、加拿大 15.5 个仍有较大提升空间。 3 ）时间支持方面，延长各类生育相关假期，需探索成本共担机制。 延长男性陪产或 ...

文：任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要，又充满争议；既事关国家兴衰，又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对，在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量，势大力沉，是典型的"灰犀牛"，人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 在经济学中，人口与资本、技术一起在供给侧决定经济潜在增长率，是引发经济增速变 动、经济结构转型的长周期变量，同时，人口的数量和结构还在需求侧影响着消费、投资等领 域。 因此，人口研究至关重要。 我们长期以来专注于人口研究，试图以科学家的精神、建设 性的态度，系统客观地对人口方面的问题进行分析研究，旨在帮助读者厘清逻辑、明晰真相、 看清未来，推动社会进步。我们长期以来建言放开生育、鼓励生育、降低生育养育教育成本， 与梁建章、黄文政等老师一起发起成立育娲人口研究这一公益研究机构。 一、中国视角：少子老龄化时代来临，人口变迁带来哪些挑战和机遇 人口周期是指人口经历老一代陆续死亡、新一代不断出生、世代更替的人口再生产过程及 其引发的经济社会变化。个体生命周期的加总成为人口周期，主要表现为生育率下滑、老龄化 加重、人力资本水平提高、人口迁 ...

文：任泽平团队 人口问题既十分重要，又充满争议；既事关国家兴衰，又关系每个人的幸福。 少子化、老 龄化、不婚化、阶层固化等现象带来的挑战及应对，在学术界和国家战略层面长期存在不同观 点。人口因素是长周期、慢变量，势大力沉，是典型的"灰犀牛"，人口问题日益成为世界各国 重点关注的议题。 在经济学中，人口与资本、技术一起在供给侧决定经济潜在增长率，是引发经济增速变 动、经济结构转型的长周期变量，同时，人口的数量和结构还在需求侧影响着消费、投资等领 域。 因此，人口研究至关重要。 我们长期以来专注于人口研究，试图以科学家的精神、建设 性的态度，系统客观地对人口方面的问题进行分析研究，旨在帮助读者厘清逻辑、明晰真相、 看清未来，推动社会进步。我们长期以来建言放开生育、鼓励生育、降低生育养育教育成本， 与梁建章、黄文政等老师一起发起成立育娲人口研究这一公益研究机构。 少子老龄化带来一系列重大而深远的影响和挑战，比如经济潜在增速下降、储蓄投资率下 降、劳动力成本上升、创新创业活力下降、资产估值中枢下行、社会负担加重等。 过去，中 国依靠庞大且年轻的人口红利和高储蓄投资率带来的高资本投入，支撑改革开放后经济的快速 增长。2 ...