June 20, 2025 04:03 AM GMT 中国的新兴前沿 从轮式到步式⸺汽车如何跨 足人形机器人 汽车公司，从主机厂到供应商和经销商，都在利用汽车行业 经验在蓬勃发展的人形机器人市场中分得一杯羹。在行业发 展初期，我们更看好具有订单可见性或业务协同性的公司。 我们将三花的评级上调至超配 (OW)，将旭升的评级上调至平 配 (EW)。 我们认为人形机器人将为汽车零部件供应商带来第三波增长：过去十年，汽车行 业出现了两次机遇，培育了一批优质零部件供应商：1）2021-22年汽车电动化推动 三电系统相关供应商的收入增长和估值提升；2）自2022年以来，汽车智能化一直 是汽车电子供应商的主要推动力。 从长远来看，我们认为人形机器人提供了第三个机会。 在本报告中，我们希望推 动人形机器人的讨论。我们利用摩根士丹利在人形机器人和中国新兴前沿领域的 研究，探索中国汽车行业的机遇。我们识别潜在的参与者，应用SWOT框架来评估 竞争，形成投资结论。 汽车公司可以将哪些优势用于人形机器人？ 特斯拉和小鹏汽车等车企采用智能驾 驶基础模型来训练人形机器人"大脑"，并且机器人最初可以在车间工作。汽车 零部件供应商生产车规级 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in the first quarter were up 0.7% year-over-year on an organic basis, or 2.3% on a daily organic basis, with strength in residential HVAC, aerospace, and energy markets [11][12] - Adjusted gross margin was 37.9%, up 50 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.8%, up 30 basis points [13][14] - Adjusted earnings per share in the quarter was $2.15, up 7.5% year-over-year, or approximately 10% adjusted for the impact of the Industrial Systems divestiture [14] - Free cash flow generated in the quarter was nearly $86 million, up 32% year-over-year, contributing to a debt reduction of $164 million [14][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automation and Motion Control (AMC) net sales were up 40 basis points year-over-year on an organic basis, driven by strength in aerospace and defense, and a return to growth in discrete automation [22] - Industrial Powertrain Solutions (IPS) net sales were down 3.4% year-over-year on an organic basis, reflecting weakness in the machinery off-highway market [25] - Power Efficiency Solutions (PES) net sales were up 8% year-over-year on an organic basis, largely due to strong growth in residential HVAC, which was up nearly 30% [28][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - IPS sales in North America were up low single digits, while sales in China, Europe, and the rest of the world experienced weakness [26] - Orders in IPS were up nearly 9% in the first quarter, reflecting further outgrowth in attractive markets [26] - Organic orders in April were down 1.8%, largely due to aerospace project timing in AMC and anticipated order rebalancing in PES [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing growth, synergy, and cash flow acceleration plans, while implementing robust tariff mitigation strategies [10][14] - The humanoid robot market is identified as a significant growth opportunity, with expectations of strong double-digit CAGRs for the next decade [15][19] - The company aims to leverage its automation portfolio to gain market share in the humanoid space, with recent wins worth over $20 million in annual sales [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about improving growth prospects, noting three quarters of positive orders growth and a belief that most end markets are near trough levels of demand [7][9] - The company reaffirmed its earnings guidance for the year, despite macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff-related challenges [9][33] - Management emphasized confidence in achieving tariff-related cost and margin neutrality by mid-2026 [42][44] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with total debt of approximately $5.3 billion and net debt just below $5 billion [32] - The company plans to continue deploying the majority of its free cash flow to debt reduction in 2025 [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Dynamics of long cycle versus short cycle orders - Management noted good momentum in winning longer cycle projects, especially in IPS, while short cycle orders remained stable [48][50] Question: Competitive positioning and share gains - Management highlighted a net advantageous position due to global manufacturing footprint and dual country sourcing strategies, expecting share opportunities to arise [53][54] Question: EBITDA margin outlook and drivers - Management expects a step-up in EBITDA margins in the second half, driven by mix, volume, and price synergies [58][59] Question: PES revenue outlook and conservatism in guidance - Management expressed caution regarding the second half outlook for PES due to macroeconomic factors, despite strong first quarter performance [63] Question: Mitigation of tariff impacts - Management outlined that supply chain realignments and production relocations are primary mitigation strategies, with pricing actions also contributing [69][70] Question: IPS margin guide and mix effects - Management confirmed that the margin guide for IPS is primarily affected by mix rather than tariff pressures [83] Question: Humanoid market opportunities - Management indicated that the $100 million opportunity funnel is global, with recent wins not primarily based in China [100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in Q1 2025 increased by 0.7% year-over-year on an organic basis, or 2.3% on a daily organic basis, with notable strength in residential HVAC, aerospace, and energy markets [10][12] - Adjusted gross margin was 37.9%, up 50 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.8%, up 30 basis points [12][13] - Adjusted earnings per share in the quarter was $2.15, reflecting a 7.5% increase year-over-year, or approximately 10% adjusted for the impact of the Industrial Systems divestiture [13] - Free cash flow generated in the quarter was nearly $86 million, up 32% year-over-year, contributing to a $164 million debt repayment [13][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Automation and Motion Control (AMC) net sales were up 40 basis points year-over-year on an organic basis, driven by strength in aerospace and defense, with discrete automation returning to growth [22][23] - Industrial Powertrain Solutions (IPS) net sales decreased by 3.4% year-over-year on an organic basis, reflecting weakness in the machinery off-highway market, but orders were up nearly 9% [25][27] - Power Efficiency Solutions (PES) net sales increased by 8% year-over-year on an organic basis, primarily due to strong growth in residential HVAC, which was up nearly 30% [29][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - IPS sales in North America were up low single digits, while sales in China, Europe, and the rest of the world experienced declines [26] - Orders in IPS were up nearly 9% in Q1, indicating strong performance in metals and mining and marine markets [27] - Organic orders in April were down 1.8%, largely due to aerospace project timing in AMC and anticipated order rebalancing in PES [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing growth, synergy, and cash flow acceleration plans while implementing robust tariff mitigation strategies [8][10] - Regal Rexnord is well-positioned in the humanoid robot market, with expectations for significant growth opportunities in the coming years [14][19] - The company aims to achieve EBITDA margin neutrality by mid-2026 through effective tariff mitigation actions [40][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about improving growth prospects, noting that most end markets are at or near trough levels of demand and starting to rebound [6][7] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, indicating confidence in its ability to manage through tariff-related uncertainties while maintaining a positive outlook on order momentum [34][45] - Management highlighted the potential for share gains due to tariff-related pricing and strategic opportunities [38][45] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with total debt of approximately $5.3 billion and net debt just below $5 billion, with plans to continue deploying free cash flow to debt reduction [33] - The company has a funnel of opportunities worth approximately $100 million in the humanoid robot market, with several recent wins worth over $20 million in annual sales [20][104] Q&A Session Summary Question: Dynamics of long cycle vs short cycle orders - Management noted good momentum in winning longer cycle projects, particularly in IPS, while short cycle orders remained stable [49][50] Question: Competitive positioning and share gains - Management emphasized a net advantageous position due to global manufacturing footprint and dual country sourcing strategies, expecting share opportunities to arise [53][54] Question: EBITDA margin outlook and tariff impacts - Management expects a step-up in EBITDA margins in the second half of the year, primarily driven by mix and volume improvements, with confidence in achieving EBITDA neutrality by year-end [59][60] Question: PES revenue outlook and conservatism in guidance - Management indicated that while pleased with Q1 performance, they remain cautious about the second half due to macroeconomic factors [63] Question: Mitigation of tariff impacts - Management outlined that supply chain realignments and production relocations are primary mitigation strategies, with pricing actions also contributing [70][71] Question: Humanoid market opportunities - Management clarified that the $100 million opportunity funnel is global, with recent wins primarily not based in China [102][104]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report predicts a global humanoid robot market worth $5 trillion by 2050, with an estimated 1 billion humanoid robots in use [1][2] - The model expands on previous market size estimates for the US and China, incorporating other regions and household humanoid robots [2] - The humanoid robot market is expected to significantly surpass the global automotive industry in size over the long term [3][4] Group 2 - By 2050, global humanoid robot sales are projected to reach $4.7 trillion, nearly double the revenue of the top 20 automotive OEMs in 2024 [4] - The report highlights the impact of new entrants in the traditional manufacturing sector, including startups and established companies, on the rise of autonomous industrial ecosystems [6] Group 3 - The report identifies several Chinese automotive companies involved in humanoid robotics, including BYD, GAC Group, and XPENG, which are developing their own humanoid robots [7][8] - XPENG may invest up to $13.8 billion in humanoid robotics development, indicating significant financial commitment from the automotive sector [7] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the unique advantages China holds in the development and promotion of AI-driven humanoid robots, suggesting a potential shift in global geopolitical dynamics [9] - The adoption of humanoid robots is expected to reshape labor markets and household dynamics, with significant implications for the global industrial landscape [39] Group 5 - By 2050, approximately 92% of humanoid robots will be commercial, with significant adoption rates projected in various income regions [10][13] - The report provides a detailed forecast of humanoid robot adoption across different income levels and regions, highlighting the disparities in penetration rates [33][36] Group 6 - The report outlines the expected growth of household humanoid robots, estimating around 84.2 million units by 2050, but notes affordability and social acceptance as key challenges [20][24] - The adoption rates in high-income countries are projected to be significantly higher compared to low-income countries, reflecting economic disparities [24][25]