点击 最 下方 "在看"和" "并分享，"关注"材料汇 添加 小编微信 ，遇见 志同道合 的你 正文 核心要点 人形机器人海外当前处于小批量阶段，国产链已初步放量 特斯拉链方面，主机厂已有小批量生产流水线，对零部件需求具备间歇性和实验性，马斯克规划明年年底开始建设100万台工厂产能，并建议供应链布局 海外工厂准备产能。 国产链方面，在政策支持和融资双重驱动下，主机厂今年迎来数千台的出货，合计数十亿的订单额度。 短期靠商务能力切入，靠原创技术力获得认可，长期靠降本能力获得大份额 特斯拉链多数公司仍处于送样阶段， 取得送样资格和认可与商务能力 密切相关 ； 原创技术能力 上，设计和制造出符合特斯拉需求的机器人零部件产品 是获得持续合作的基本条件； 降本能力 上，由于机器人硬件本质属于制造业，长期份额预计最终决定于产品性价比。 中长期值得投资 的环节在于具备以上 三种能力+价值量高+市占率高 的环节。根据价值量排序看， 执行器关节>灵巧手>电机>减速器>传感器等 ，从市占 率角度，预计 深度相机、谐波减速器、芯片环节集中度较高 ，从长期降本能力上，汽车和消费电子板块公司往往历史有证明自己的实力。 供应链卷的方式方法 ...

Core Insights - The rise of humanoid robots in China is marked by over 150 companies entering the market, with many being new entrants or companies pivoting from other industries [3][5] - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing rapid growth, with an annual increase of over 50%, potentially reaching a market size of 100 billion by 2030 [5][19] - Companies like Xiaomi and Huawei are leveraging their existing expertise in supply chain management and ecosystem integration to innovate in the humanoid robot space [7][12] Industry Overview - The influx of new players in the humanoid robot market resembles a crowded scene, with many companies producing similar products, leading to concerns about homogenization [5][11] - The competition is fierce, and companies that lack genuine technological advancements may struggle to survive, as evidenced by the dissolution of Yixing Robotics [11][12] - The focus should shift from merely creating humanoid robots to developing specialized robots that address specific needs in various sectors, such as healthcare and logistics [19][20] Company Strategies - Xiaomi aims to reduce the production cost of its CyberOne robot by 60% by 2025, applying its automotive supply chain experience [7] - Huawei's collaboration with robot companies to create integrated systems showcases the potential for enhanced functionality and responsiveness in home automation [7] - Successful players in the market are those who focus on unique technological capabilities rather than competing on superficial similarities [12][19]

Core Insights - The unveiling of XPeng's humanoid robot Iron has sparked widespread debate about its authenticity, with many questioning whether it is a real robot or a human in disguise [1][2] - XPeng's CEO, He Xiaopeng, demonstrated Iron's capabilities, including its flexible skin and advanced mechanics, aiming to dispel doubts about the robot's identity [1][2] - The humanoid robot market is rapidly expanding, with approximately 18 automotive companies entering the field, driven by technological synergies and commercial motivations [4][6] Technical Features - Iron features 82 degrees of freedom, allowing it to perform complex movements like a model walk, significantly surpassing the 19 degrees of freedom of a previously showcased robot [2][3] - The robot is equipped with three Turing AI chips, providing a processing power of 2250 TOPS, and utilizes a self-developed physical world model for enhanced multi-modal coordination [3][6] - The design of Iron incorporates a bionic spine and flexible skin, contributing to its human-like movement and appearance [2][3] Industry Trends - The automotive industry is increasingly investing in humanoid robots as a means to leverage existing technologies from electric vehicles, with cost advantages estimated to be 30%-50% lower than tech companies [6][8] - The competition in the electric vehicle market has intensified, prompting companies to explore new narratives, with humanoid robots seen as a more imaginative venture [8][10] - The commercialization of humanoid robots is expected to progress faster than that of autonomous driving, due to more controllable environments and lower risks [8][10] Strategic Implications - Automotive companies are not just creating robots for novelty; they aim to reshape a new intelligent ecosystem that integrates vehicles, robots, and energy systems [10][11] - Companies like Tesla and XPeng envision their robots as extensions of AI ecosystems, with applications in various sectors including manufacturing and home assistance [11][12] - The development of humanoid robots is viewed as a competition for energy efficiency, with the potential for solid-state batteries to enhance the capabilities of these robots [11][12]

Core Insights - The automotive industry is increasingly venturing into the humanoid robotics sector, with companies like Xiaopeng Motors, Xiaomi, GAC Group, Chery, and BYD developing their own robotic products or collaborations [2][3][4] Group 1: Industry Trends - Xiaopeng Motors unveiled its next-generation humanoid robot, IRON, at the Xiaopeng Technology Day, showcasing a design closely resembling human anatomy [2][3] - Tesla has been a pioneer in this field, launching its first humanoid robot, Optimus, in September 2022, and continues to enhance its capabilities [3] - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected sales volume exceeding 5 million units and a market size surpassing 400 billion yuan by 2035, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 51.7% from 2025 to 2035 [5] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - Automotive companies possess inherent advantages in humanoid robot development due to the shared underlying technologies between electric vehicles and intelligent robotics [6] - The automotive supply chain can reduce costs significantly, with components like lidar and motor reducers being 30% cheaper than those from startup robotics firms [6] - Established experience in electromechanical system integration and large-scale production capabilities allows automotive companies to effectively manage manufacturing costs [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The trend of cross-industry collaboration is evident, with various sectors, including e-commerce and technology, also exploring new product lines, indicating a shift towards a more integrated smart ecosystem [7] - The move into humanoid robotics is not merely a response to declining automotive profits but a proactive strategy to capture the potential of emerging markets and enhance resilience against risks [7]

Summary of the Human-Robot Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The human-robot industry in China is expected to receive systematic support during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on technology research and development, application scenarios, financial support, and talent introduction [1][2] Key Companies and Developments - **Zhiyuan**: Launched the new generation of the Spirit G2 robot, with a production line targeting an annual output of 3,000 units. The shipment target for 2025 is over 4,000 units, and for 2026, it is over 10,000 units. The company plans to go public in Hong Kong in 2026, with a valuation of $5-6 billion [1][4] - **UBTECH**: Received orders totaling approximately 630 million yuan, mainly in the automotive, education, and research sectors. The shipment target for 2025 is close to 1,000 units of the Worker S2 series, with a price in the hundreds of thousands yuan range. The target for 2026 is to increase shipments to 2,000-3,000 units [1][7] - **Yushun**: Aims for a shipment target of 4,000-5,000 units in 2025, primarily consumer products, with expectations to exceed 10,000 units in 2026. The company plans to submit an IPO application in Q4 2025 [3][8] - **Xiaopeng**: Plans to release the fifth generation of human robots in November 2025, with a production target of 50,000 units annually starting in the second half of 2026 [3][9] - **Xiaomi**: Plans to deliver 100 robots in 2025, with an expected shipment of over 1,000 units in 2026 [3][10] - **Changan Automobile**: Plans to invest 50 billion yuan over the next five years, focusing on human-robot technology and aims for mass production by 2028 [3][11] Market Catalysts - The fourth quarter is expected to see multiple catalysts for the domestic human-robot market, including potential policy support from the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the anticipated IPOs of leading companies like Yushun and Leju [1][5] Investment Opportunities - Current valuations of core T-material companies such as Sanhua Top, Hengli Hydraulic, Changying Precision, and Shuanghuan Transmission have adjusted to more comfortable levels, providing better buying opportunities. The transaction amount of tracked human-robot companies has decreased from 12% to 7.7% of the total A-share transaction amount since mid-September [1][6] Policy Developments - Hangzhou has introduced the first national regulations for embodied intelligent robots, aiming to achieve mass production of at least three human robots and five bionic robots by the end of 2027, with a total output value exceeding 20 billion yuan and an industry scale reaching 50 billion yuan by 2029 [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the rapid development and commercialization of humanoid robots in China, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and capital investment, with a strong expectation for mass production to begin in 2025 [2][8][30]. Policy Support - Central and local governments are actively promoting the humanoid robot industry through various policies, including the "three-step" strategy outlined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aiming for significant technological breakthroughs and mass production by 2025 [9][15]. - Regions are developing differentiated strategies, with eastern areas focusing on high-end research and western regions emphasizing supply chain localization and cost control [19][22]. Technological Innovation - Significant advancements in core components and lightweight design have been achieved by domestic companies, while foreign competitors maintain a lead in hardware design and AI decision-making systems [2][4]. - Companies like Unitree Technology and the "Gongga No.1" have made notable progress in lightweight design and structural innovation, enhancing market competitiveness [9][10]. Commercialization Progress - A surge in startup companies in the humanoid robot sector is expected in 2024, with several firms already achieving large-scale deliveries and partnerships with well-known automotive and logistics companies [3][4]. - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for mass production, with companies like Unitree and Zhiyuan Robotics expected to sell over a thousand units [3][4]. Investment Landscape - The investment environment for humanoid robots is highly active, with significant funding directed towards early-stage projects, particularly in core technology development [24][29]. - Major tech companies and local governments are establishing funds to support the growth of the humanoid robot industry, with investments ranging from 2 billion to 100 billion yuan [25][29]. Competitive Landscape - The humanoid robot market features three main types of players: automotive companies, startups, and tech giants, each with unique advantages and challenges [32][34]. - Automotive companies leverage their manufacturing experience and supply chain capabilities to reduce costs and enhance application scenarios, while startups focus on rapid product iteration and technological specialization [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the humanoid robot industry, anticipating significant growth and commercialization by 2025 [5]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry in China is experiencing rapid development driven by technological breakthroughs, policy support, and capital investment, with expectations of reshaping the industrial ecosystem in the next 5-10 years [1][9]. - The year 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for mass production, with several startups expected to deliver over a thousand units [2][36]. - The collaboration between technology giants and automotive manufacturers is fostering innovation and accelerating the application of humanoid robots across various sectors [3][12]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the critical juncture for the humanoid robot industry, emphasizing the integration of AI and advanced manufacturing as key drivers for growth [9][10]. Policy Support - Central and local governments are actively promoting the humanoid robot industry through various policies, including the "three-step" strategy outlined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [18][19]. - Significant funding initiatives, such as a 100 billion yuan industry fund in Beijing, are being established to support research and development [23][24]. Supply Side - The report identifies three main types of players in the humanoid robot market: automotive companies, startups, and technology giants, each with distinct advantages [37]. - Notable startups like Unitree Technology and ZhiYuan Robotics are making strides in production and delivery, with expectations of significant sales in 2025 [2][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic humanoid robot manufacturers and their supply chains, including companies like Unitree, ZhiYuan, and automotive manufacturers like Xiaopeng and Xiaomi [4][36]. - It highlights the importance of hardware innovations, such as dexterous hand transmission solutions and lightweight materials, as key areas for investment [3][4]. Capital Investment - The humanoid robot sector has seen a surge in early-stage investments, with over 153.5 billion yuan raised in the first half of 2025, primarily in the core technology and product development areas [30][31]. - Local governments are establishing funds ranging from 2 billion to 100 billion yuan to support various segments of the humanoid robot industry [31][36].

Core Insights - Chery Automobile has introduced a humanoid robot named "Moyin" at the Jakarta International Auto Show, with plans for public release and potential sales to individual users in October [1][2] - The humanoid robot market is becoming a competitive arena for automakers, with companies like Tesla, Xpeng, and BYD also entering the field [3][4] Company Developments - Chery established a dedicated robotics company, "Mojia Zhichuang," in January 2023, with an initial investment of 100 million yuan [2] - The first batch of 220 "Moyin" robots was delivered in April 2023, and they are currently being used in Chery's dealerships in Malaysia for customer interaction [2] - Chery's strategy involves a phased approach: starting with 4S stores, expanding to shopping malls and public areas, and eventually targeting home use [2] Industry Trends - The humanoid robot market is projected to reach 8.239 billion yuan by 2025, representing about 50% of the global market [6] - The Chinese embodied intelligence market is expected to grow to 5.295 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 27% of the global market [6] Cost and Technology Challenges - Current costs for humanoid robots are high, with Chery's "Moyin" expected to drop to around 200,000 yuan per unit as key components become domestically sourced and production scales up [7][8] - The high costs are attributed to expensive core components such as high-precision servo joints and specialized AI chips, as well as significant R&D expenses [7][8] - Industry experts note that while automakers have advantages in manufacturing and supply chains, challenges remain in AI decision-making and adaptability to complex environments [7][8]

Core Concept - Embodied Intelligence (EI) is defined as an intelligent system that perceives and acts based on a physical body, integrating perception, action, and cognition through dynamic interaction with the environment [6][11]. Comparison with Traditional AI - Traditional AI operates in static, closed digital environments, while embodied AI functions in dynamic, open physical worlds [8]. - Traditional AI relies on single or specific modalities for input, whereas embodied AI utilizes multi-modal, real-time sensor data streams [8]. - The output of traditional AI is digital signals, while embodied AI produces physical actions [8]. - Traditional AI focuses on pattern recognition and content generation, while embodied AI aims to complete specific physical tasks in the environment [8]. - Learning in traditional AI is based on large static datasets, while embodied AI learns through real-time interaction and trial-and-error [8]. Research Significance - Researching embodied intelligence can drive digital transformation across various sectors in China, supporting the development of a strong manufacturing and digital economy [12]. - It represents a future direction for general artificial intelligence, moving from virtual to physical realities and from specialized tasks to general intelligence [12]. - The technology can enhance the intelligence level of robots and automation devices, improving their adaptability and task execution capabilities across multiple industries such as service, healthcare, and education [12]. Policy Support - The Chinese government has included embodied intelligence and intelligent robotics in national strategies, emphasizing future industries like biomanufacturing and quantum technology [13]. - Various policies have been established to encourage the procurement of intelligent products and the updating of industrial robots in key sectors [13]. Development Stages - The evolution of embodied intelligence can be categorized into three stages: 1. Technical germination stage (1950s-1990s) 2. Technical accumulation stage (1990s-2020s) 3. Technical breakthrough stage (2020s-present) [16][24]. Core Technologies - The core components of embodied intelligence include the physical body (capable of perception, movement, and operation), the intelligence module (driven by multi-modal large models), and the environment (the physical world where interaction occurs) [34][35]. Industry Chain - The industry chain for embodied intelligence consists of upstream (raw materials and components), midstream (manufacturing and integration), and downstream (application scenarios) [90]. - Key hardware components include chips, sensors, motors, and communication modules, while software components involve AI algorithms, operating systems, and cloud services [93][95]. Application Scenarios - Embodied intelligence is applicable in various fields, including industrial manufacturing, transportation logistics, education, healthcare, home services, retail, scientific research, and military defense [102]. Future Development - Future developments in embodied intelligence are expected to focus on enhancing capabilities in household services, healthcare, restaurant services, retail, and public services [105]. - The concept of Embodied General Intelligence (AGI) is anticipated to emerge, representing a significant advancement in the field [106].

Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is expected to achieve a valuation uplift from manufacturing to embodied intelligence under the wave of digital revolution and AI [3][27][32] - The human-shaped robot industry is in a transitional phase from 0 to 1, with significant potential for commercialization and application in various sectors [40][37] Group 1: Industry Trends - The human-shaped robot industry is anticipated to follow a path from specialized applications to general scenarios, with initial deployments in B-end specialized environments [10][13] - The automotive sector is a major application scene for AI, with the potential for significant valuation increases as companies transition from traditional manufacturing to AI-driven applications [3][27] - The overlap in supply chains between automotive components and human-shaped robots presents opportunities for industry upgrades, as many components are interchangeable [4][29][22] Group 2: Company Developments - Major automotive and tech companies, including Tesla, BYD, and Xiaomi, are entering the human-shaped robot market, leveraging their manufacturing capabilities and technological expertise [5][26][32] - Companies are actively developing human-shaped robots, with Tesla's Optimus expected to begin mass production by 2026, and other firms like BYD and Chery also making significant strides in this area [19][25][37] - The government is supporting the human-shaped robot industry through policies aimed at fostering innovation and development, indicating a strong future for this sector [43][44] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition from traditional vehicles to electric vehicles and now to AI-driven smart vehicles and robots represents a significant industry evolution, with companies that adapt early likely to benefit the most [35][28] - The expected demand for human-shaped robots is projected to reach millions, similar to the automotive market, creating a substantial market opportunity for companies involved in both sectors [22][37] - The integration of AI capabilities into automotive applications is expected to accelerate the development and deployment of human-shaped robots, enhancing their functionality and market readiness [15][16][32]