商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 PP：1 月多套 PDH 计划检修，基差走强 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6330 | -0.28% | 374453 | 535 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -160 | | -208 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -25 | | -20 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | 重要现货价格 | 华 北 | 6180 | | 6060 | | | | 华 东 | 6170 | | 6140 | | | | 华 南 | 6260 | | 6230 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 节前国内 PP 市场部分小涨。节中南美地缘冲突加剧，提振油价预期， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 12月22日，PX/PTA主力合约大幅增仓上行，分别上涨3.98%、4.52%，主要原因和上周五变化不大： 1、PX/PTA远期预期较好。PX方面，虽然存量开工已开至高位，但两年的新装置投产空挡让PX和PTA 的结构性错配加剧，PX新装置最早在2026年三季度兑现，另外从目前的检修计划来看，明年PX检修或 依然将集中在二季度，在当前低库存状态下上半年PX预计依然偏紧，同时市场预期原油下方空间有 限，因此虽然近期原油价格偏弱，PXN却一直在走扩。PTA方面，2026年无新增产能计划，产能集中投 放期已结束，随着下游聚酯新产能继续投放，PTA供应压力将逐步缓解，加工费存修复预期。 2、近期PTA基本面好转，基差走强，下游库存低位补库。近月聚酯端维持91%以上高位负荷，而PTA检 修仍多，供应尚未完全回归，PTA12月去库，1月也没有累库压力，基本面较此前预期好转。另外，近 期下游原料库存降至低位，价格低位聚酯工厂的补货需求大幅提升，带动现货市场基差逐渐走强。 3、技术面：此前主力合约受到中长期下跌趋势线上沿压制，几次 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to increased arrivals, port inventory accumulation, weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG decreased by 30, 3, and 10 respectively; propane CFR South China remained unchanged; MB propane spot decreased by 3; CP forecast contract price decreased by 3; Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 90; Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 20; paper import profit decreased by 26; and the main basis increased by 8 [1] - **Market Conditions**: The PG futures market was weak. The spot price fluctuated and declined, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil LPG at 4400 yuan/ton. The main contract shifted to the 09 contract, and the basis strengthened to 445 (+79). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen, with the 9 - 10 month spread at - 439 (-18). The number of registered warrants was 9759 lots (-45), with 20 lots decreased at Qingdao Yunda and 25 lots decreased at Ningbo Baidinian [1] International Market - **Price Adjustments**: The August CP official price was lowered. Propane was at 520 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month; butane was at 490 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month. The estimated landed cost of propane was around 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane was around 4090 yuan/ton [1] - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP reached 30 (-13), FEI - MB reached 159 (+3), FEI - CP reached 5 (+0.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window opened; the CP propane landed discount fluctuated. FEI - MOPJ first widened and then narrowed, with the latest at - 53 (-5) [1] Fundamental Situation - **Inventory and Supply**: Arrivals increased, leading to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory decreased slightly; the commodity volume increased slightly [1] - **Downstream Profits**: The spot profit of PDH to PP fluctuated, and the paper profit continued to improve; the profits of other downstream devices decreased. The PDH operating rate was 72.63% (-0.5 pct), with Liaoning Jinfa resuming production and Tianjin Bohua shutting down due to a fault. Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Ruiheng are expected to restart next week [1]