Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of PP provide limited support at the end of the year. With the PDH profit at a new low, but the upstream having locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, the willingness to cut production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6330, with a daily decline of 0.28%. The trading volume was 374,453, and the position changed by 535 [1] - **LLDPE Basis and Spread Data**: The 05 - contract basis was - 160 (compared to - 208 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 25 (compared to - 20 the previous day) [1] - **LLDPE Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6180 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, and 6260 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases compared to the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - Before the festival, the domestic PP market had partial small increases. After the festival, due to the intensification of geopolitical conflicts in South America during the festival, which boosted oil price expectations, the futures fluctuated on the first day after the festival, and the spot prices rose. However, the end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying is questionable, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level. The PP US - dollar market price remained stable, with overseas suppliers having low enthusiasm for offering to China, and downstream buyers continuing to make rigid - need purchases, resulting in difficult improvement in trading [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic between aromatics and olefins is continuously strengthened [2] - **Supply Side**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand Side**: The follow - up of new orders from downstream industries weakens, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0 [2]

Group 1 - The main contracts for PX and PTA saw significant increases, rising by 3.98% and 4.52% respectively, driven by favorable long-term expectations [8] - PX is expected to remain tight in the first half of the year due to a lack of new production capacity until Q3 2026 and concentrated maintenance plans in Q2 2024, despite high existing operational levels [8] - PTA's supply pressure is expected to ease as no new production capacity is planned until 2026, and with ongoing polyester production capacity being added, the market outlook for PTA has improved [8] Group 2 - Recent improvements in PTA's fundamentals have led to a stronger basis, with downstream inventory at low levels prompting significant replenishment demand [8] - Polyester production has maintained high operating rates above 91%, while PTA maintenance has limited supply recovery, resulting in a favorable market environment [8] - The technical outlook shows that recent funding increases have allowed PX and PTA prices to break through long-term downtrend lines, indicating a potential upward trend [9] Group 3 - Despite the positive outlook for PX and PTA, there is a cautionary note regarding the rapid price increases driven by concentrated funding, which may lead to a risk of funding withdrawal [9] - The decline in terminal weaving orders and operations, coupled with rising raw material prices, poses a risk of losses for polyester filament, prompting major manufacturers to implement self-discipline production cuts [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to increased arrivals, port inventory accumulation, weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 28 to August 1, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG decreased by 30, 3, and 10 respectively; propane CFR South China remained unchanged; MB propane spot decreased by 3; CP forecast contract price decreased by 3; Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 90; Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 20; paper import profit decreased by 26; and the main basis increased by 8 [1] - **Market Conditions**: The PG futures market was weak. The spot price fluctuated and declined, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil LPG at 4400 yuan/ton. The main contract shifted to the 09 contract, and the basis strengthened to 445 (+79). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen, with the 9 - 10 month spread at - 439 (-18). The number of registered warrants was 9759 lots (-45), with 20 lots decreased at Qingdao Yunda and 25 lots decreased at Ningbo Baidinian [1] International Market - **Price Adjustments**: The August CP official price was lowered. Propane was at 520 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month; butane was at 490 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous month. The estimated landed cost of propane was around 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane was around 4090 yuan/ton [1] - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP reached 30 (-13), FEI - MB reached 159 (+3), FEI - CP reached 5 (+0.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window opened; the CP propane landed discount fluctuated. FEI - MOPJ first widened and then narrowed, with the latest at - 53 (-5) [1] Fundamental Situation - **Inventory and Supply**: Arrivals increased, leading to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory decreased slightly; the commodity volume increased slightly [1] - **Downstream Profits**: The spot profit of PDH to PP fluctuated, and the paper profit continued to improve; the profits of other downstream devices decreased. The PDH operating rate was 72.63% (-0.5 pct), with Liaoning Jinfa resuming production and Tianjin Bohua shutting down due to a fault. Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Ruiheng are expected to restart next week [1]