Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the Iran-Israel conflict, highlighting Iran's military actions against Israel and the subsequent political implications, including internet disruptions in Iran and statements from Iranian leaders regarding nuclear rights and international cooperation. Group 1: Iran-Israel Conflict - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei made his first public appearance since the 12-day conflict with Israel, which began with Israeli airstrikes on June 13, resulting in significant casualties and damage [4] - During the conflict, Iran reportedly targeted five Israeli military facilities, although Israel has not publicly acknowledged these attacks [9][11] - The conflict saw Iran launch over 500 ballistic missiles and approximately 1,100 drones, with some missiles successfully penetrating Israeli defenses [12][13] Group 2: Internet Disruptions in Iran - Following the conflict, Iran experienced significant internet disruptions, with services switching to a national internal network from June 17 until June 21, when services were restored [6][7] - As of July 6, there were still issues with international links for some of Iran's internet infrastructure, affecting many service providers [2][6] Group 3: Nuclear Rights and International Relations - Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Zarif, emphasized Iran's commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty while asserting their right to peaceful nuclear energy [16][18] - A recent law passed by the Iranian parliament restricts cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, requiring guarantees for Iran's nuclear facility security before allowing inspections [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, highlighting the military actions taken by both sides and the implications for regional stability and international relations [4][8][10]. Group 1: Conflict Overview - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei made his first public appearance since the 12-day conflict with Israel, which began with Israeli airstrikes on June 13, resulting in significant casualties and damage [4][6]. - The conflict saw Iran launching multiple missile and drone attacks in retaliation, leading to a ceasefire agreement on June 24 [4][6]. - Reports indicate that Iran targeted five Israeli military facilities during the conflict, which Israel has not publicly acknowledged [8][9]. Group 2: Military Actions and Impact - During the 12-day conflict, Iran reportedly fired over 500 ballistic missiles and approximately 1,100 drones at Israel, with some missiles successfully penetrating Israeli defenses [9][10]. - Analysis suggests that around 16% of missiles managed to bypass Israel's defense systems during the first eight days of the conflict [10]. - The attacks resulted in 28 fatalities and damage to 2,305 homes, two universities, and a hospital in Israel [9]. Group 3: Internet and Communication Disruptions - Following the conflict, Iran experienced significant internet disruptions, with a switch to a national internal network on June 17, which was restored by June 21 [6][6]. - The Iranian Minister of Information and Communications announced that communication services had returned to pre-conflict levels after the ceasefire [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, marking a significant geopolitical event with potential implications for regional stability and investment opportunities in the defense and energy sectors [1] Group 1: Conflict Overview - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei made his first public appearance since the 12-day conflict with Israel, which began on June 13 with large-scale airstrikes by Israel [1] - The conflict resulted in significant casualties and damage, including the loss of high-ranking commanders and nuclear scientists in Iran [1] - A ceasefire agreement was reached on June 24, following multiple missile and drone attacks by Iran in retaliation to the Israeli strikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has resulted in significant casualties, with Iran reporting 935 deaths, including 38 children and 102 women, since the escalation began on June 13 [1] Group 1: Casualties and Impact - The conflict has led to a total of 935 fatalities in Iran, highlighting the severe human cost of the hostilities [1] - Among the casualties, there are 38 children and 102 women, indicating the impact on vulnerable populations [1] Group 2: Military Actions - Israel has conducted large-scale airstrikes across multiple locations in Iran since June 13, escalating the conflict [1] - In retaliation, Iran has launched multiple missile and drone attacks targeting various sites within Israel [1] Group 3: Ceasefire Agreement - A ceasefire agreement was announced by both Iran and Israel through different channels on June 24, suggesting a temporary halt to hostilities [1]

Core Points - A solemn funeral was held in Tehran, Iran, on June 28, to mourn over 60 high-ranking military officials and nuclear scientists who lost their lives in recent Iran-Israel conflicts [1] - Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, attended the funeral despite earlier reports of his death following an attack by Israeli forces on June 13 [1] - Shamkhani had been reported dead by some media outlets on June 14, but he later denied these rumors through a social media post on June 21 [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices showed a slight increase, closing at $3332.02, up 0.27%, after hitting a two-week low [1] - In the European market, gold is trading around $3340 [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices had mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.25% at 42982.43, the Nasdaq up 0.31% at 19973.55, and the S&P 500 at 6092.16 [2] - President Trump is considering undermining Fed Chairman Powell, expressing frustration over the Fed's slow rate cuts [5] Group 3 - Potential candidates to replace Powell include Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller [6] - The market's future direction will depend on who is appointed as the next Fed Chair, with varying implications for market performance [6] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed will cut rates seven times by 2026, starting in March, with a final rate of 2.5% to 2.75% [7] - Swap markets have increased the probability of a July rate cut to 40%, with total expected cuts for the remaining meetings of the year rising from 45 basis points to 60 basis points [7] Group 5 - Deutsche Bank reports that internal divisions within the Fed are at a ten-year high, complicating the future rate cut path [9] Group 6 - Investors are focusing on key economic data releases, including Q1 GDP, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims, which could influence the dollar and gold prices [10] - If GDP data falls short of expectations, it may lead to a weaker dollar, benefiting non-dollar currencies and gold [10] Group 7 - There is a notable shift in investment focus, with firms rapidly selling European assets and reallocating to U.S. markets, particularly large tech stocks [12] - Major U.S. exchanges are in discussions with the SEC to relax listing regulations to attract more high-valuation startups [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is "偏强运行" (Relatively strong operation) [1] 2. Core View - The lead market is expected to operate relatively strongly, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,190 yuan/ton, up 1.36% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,012 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1] - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 56,352 lots, an increase of 23,555 lots, and the open interest was 48,344 lots, an increase of 4,060 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 8,788 lots, an increase of 3,488 lots, and the open interest was 152,973 lots, a decrease of 51 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -23.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 44,667 tons, an increase of 427 tons, and LME lead inventory was 275,250 tons, a decrease of 2,125 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 70,900 tons, a decrease of 2,125 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton, and the price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -361 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - Trump stated that the conflict between Israel and Iran might break out again soon, the cease - fire progress was "very smooth", the US would not tolerate Iran's continued nuclear activities, and the US would hold talks with Iran next week, hinting at possible adjustments to sanctions [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 1, with the range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The tariff negotiations are currently stalled, with little progress made since Trump's announcement to delay "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days [4] - The U.S. is in a deadlock with Japan over auto tariffs, and no breakthroughs were achieved during the G7 summit [4] - The market is closely watching how Trump will handle the impending expiration of the 90-day delay, with potential for either further delays or a return to "reciprocal tariffs" [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - Trump has publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 2 to 3 percentage points, claiming it could save the U.S. over $800 billion annually [6] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated a cautious approach, acknowledging that tariffs have raised short-term inflation expectations, but suggested that a weak labor market could lead to earlier rate cuts [6] - Other Fed officials have also signaled support for a rate cut in July, with a consensus forming around the idea that inflation is no longer a primary concern [6] Group 3: Israel-Iran Conflict - The Israel-Iran conflict has escalated again shortly after a ceasefire, with Trump warning Israel against further attacks [9] - The conflict is closely tied to oil prices, and any escalation could lead to significant increases in oil prices, impacting U.S. inflation and the need for rate cuts [9] - Despite Trump's calls for increased shale oil production, U.S. shale producers have been reducing drilling activity due to various market pressures [9] Group 4: Overall Challenges - Trump faces intertwined challenges from tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the Israel-Iran conflict, which collectively represent significant hurdles [13] - The decisions made in response to these challenges will have direct implications for the U.S. economy and political landscape in the near future [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted operations deep within Iranian territory during the current conflict, targeting and destroying Iran's missile capabilities, including hundreds of launchers and missiles, thereby delaying Iran's military development plans [1] Group 1: Military Actions - The IDF's operations were characterized by a combination of air force and ground assault units, which provided a degree of operational freedom in Iranian airspace and at various locations chosen by the IDF [1] - The IDF Chief of Staff, Aviv Kochavi, stated that these operations were conducted secretly deep within Iranian territory, although specific details of the ground operations were not disclosed [1] Group 2: Impact on Iran - The actions taken by the IDF have reportedly disrupted Iran's missile capabilities and delayed its military development plans, indicating a significant impact on Iran's defense strategy [1] - As of now, there has been no response from the Iranian side regarding these military actions [1]

Group 1 - The NATO summit held in The Hague faced protests from over 20 countries, with demonstrators accusing NATO of being against peace and development [1] - The G7 summit preceding the NATO meeting did not produce a joint communiqué or a unified statement on Ukraine, highlighting internal divisions among Western nations [1][2] - The G7 summit's outcomes were limited, with significant disagreements on key issues, including trade negotiations and military actions regarding Iran [2] Group 2 - The NATO summit focused on military spending as a percentage of GDP, with a push for member countries to increase defense budgets to 5% by 2032, a significant rise from previous standards [4][5] - Some NATO members, like Spain, successfully negotiated to maintain their military spending at 2.1%, avoiding the proposed 5% increase [5] - The U.S. under Trump aimed to extend military spending demands to non-NATO allies like Japan and South Korea, but these countries found the 3.5% target unacceptable, leading to cancellations of planned meetings [5]