来源：张明宏观金融研究 注：本文发表于《经济理论与经济管理》2025年第10期，转载请注明出处。为方便阅读，此版本省略了技术细节、实证部分、脚注与参考文献，全文请参 见中国知网。文中配图摄于北京坝河。 摘要：本文从数量和价格两个角度测算了中国的货币政策独立性，并对"三元悖论"及"二元悖论"的适用性问题进行了研究。主要结论有：第一，控制经济 周期和通胀周期相关性及全球共同因素有助于更好地识别价格型货币政策独立性；第二，2022年以来，中国数量型货币政策独立性有所下降，但价格型货 币政策做到了"以我为主"，独立性大幅提升；第三，亚洲金融危机以来，中国"三元选择"呈中间化现象，现阶段适当放宽人民币兑美元汇率波幅有助于提 升价格型货币政策独立性；第四，在美联储降息周期，更大的汇率波动容忍度有利于价格型货币政策独立性的提升。政策部门应加强预期引导，继续增强 人民币汇率弹性，提升货币政策独立性。 一、引言 美国货币政策会对全球金融稳定造成显著的溢出效应。新冠疫情冲击以来，尽管全球主要经济体货币政策紧跟美联储步伐，但中国货币政策方向却与美国 方向迥异。与此同时，人民币兑美元即期汇率贬值幅度却小于欧元等货币。这充分说明中国货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the need for a shift in China's monetary policy from quantity-based to price-based approaches, emphasizing the importance of nominal GDP growth over just real GDP growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Context - China's economic growth has slowed in recent years, prompting a focus on nominal GDP growth [1] - The government's adjustment of the CPI target from 3% to 2% reflects a heightened concern for price stability [1] Group 2: Key Issues in Price Stability - International factors pose risks, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions [1] - The real estate market remains sluggish, leading to reduced local government revenues and insufficient recovery in public capital spending, which contributes to weak overall demand [1] - There is inadequate growth in household operational and asset income [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Recommendations - Short-term monetary policy should shift focus from GDP growth to price stability and employment [1] - There is a need for better coordination with global macroeconomic policies to avoid misalignment [1] - The transition of policy tools from quantity-based to price-based approaches is essential [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a comprehensive set of monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including a combination of quantity, price, and structural policies to enhance liquidity and support economic growth [1][4]. Quantity Policies - The PBOC will reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [3][4]. - The current average RRR for commercial banks is 6.6%, and this reduction aims to lower banks' funding costs and enhance the stability of their liabilities [3][4]. - The RRR for auto finance and financial leasing companies will be reduced to 0%, significantly boosting their credit supply capabilities [4][5]. Price Policies - Starting May 8, the PBOC will lower the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40%, which is anticipated to lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points [5][6]. - The PBOC will also reduce the rates for various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, including the rate for pledged supplementary loans (PSL) from 2.25% to 2% [6][7]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rates will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set at 2.1% for loans under 5 years and 2.6% for loans over 5 years for first-time buyers [6][7]. Structural Policies - Five structural policies have been introduced, focusing on capital markets, technological innovation, and consumer support, with significant funding allocations such as 300 billion yuan for technology innovation loans and 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care loans [9][10]. - The PBOC will merge the swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies with a stock repurchase loan program, totaling 800 billion yuan, to enhance liquidity in the capital market [9][10]. - A new risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds will be established, allowing the PBOC to provide low-cost loans to support the issuance of these bonds, thereby promoting the growth of high-quality technology enterprises [10][11].