来源：张明宏观金融研究 注：本文发表于《经济理论与经济管理》2025年第10期，转载请注明出处。为方便阅读，此版本省略了技术细节、实证部分、脚注与参考文献，全文请参 见中国知网。文中配图摄于北京坝河。 摘要：本文从数量和价格两个角度测算了中国的货币政策独立性，并对"三元悖论"及"二元悖论"的适用性问题进行了研究。主要结论有：第一，控制经济 周期和通胀周期相关性及全球共同因素有助于更好地识别价格型货币政策独立性；第二，2022年以来，中国数量型货币政策独立性有所下降，但价格型货 币政策做到了"以我为主"，独立性大幅提升；第三，亚洲金融危机以来，中国"三元选择"呈中间化现象，现阶段适当放宽人民币兑美元汇率波幅有助于提 升价格型货币政策独立性；第四，在美联储降息周期，更大的汇率波动容忍度有利于价格型货币政策独立性的提升。政策部门应加强预期引导，继续增强 人民币汇率弹性，提升货币政策独立性。 一、引言 美国货币政策会对全球金融稳定造成显著的溢出效应。新冠疫情冲击以来，尽管全球主要经济体货币政策紧跟美联储步伐，但中国货币政策方向却与美国 方向迥异。与此同时，人民币兑美元即期汇率贬值幅度却小于欧元等货币。这充分说明中国货 ...

Group 1: International Factors Impacting Chinese Long Bond Rates - International factors are increasingly influential in determining China's long bond rates, especially under more open economic conditions[3] - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) identifies a shift in global liquidity dynamics, with non-bank financial institutions becoming the main players in international capital flows since 2008[10] - The BIS financial condition index (FCI) highlights two key factors: the "level factor" reflecting interest rates and the "risk factor" indicating market risk perceptions[11] Group 2: Recent Trends and Implications - Since 2021, the BIS's "level factor" has risen sharply due to inflation and tightening U.S. monetary policy, indicating a significant tightening of financial conditions[12] - The "risk factor" has shown slight tightening since 2021, impacting China's economic conditions, but this effect is expected to ease as major central banks begin lowering interest rates in Q4 2024[12] - A strong U.S. dollar has a negative correlation with China's 10-year government bond yields, with a correlation coefficient of -0.89 from January 2014 to September 2025, indicating that dollar strength significantly influences bond rates[15]