固定收益点评报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告 12 月财政数据点评：收支承压，紧平衡加据 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 事件：2026 年 1 月 30 日，财政部公布了 2025 年全国财政收支情况。一 般公共预算收入 21.6 万亿元，一般公共预算支出 28.7 万亿元；政府性基 金收入 5.77 万亿元，政府性基金支出 11.29 万亿元。 核心观点：2025 年 12 月财政运行呈现"收入大幅下滑、支出降幅收窄"的 显著特征，全年看财政主要指标"收入略欠、支出滞后、基金缺口扩大"， 均未完全达到年初预算目标。同时，结构性矛盾突出，中央收入大幅下降， 拖累一般公共预算收入转负；财政支出增速持续回落，资金落地节奏偏缓； 土地出让金收入疲软，拖累政府性基金收支。往后看，在财政紧平衡格局 下，收入端修复仍面临内需疲软和盈利承压双重约束，支出端更依赖加快 资金拨付和形成实物工作量对冲下行压力。重点关注"提高资金使用效率、 推动跨年项目加速落地" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by consumers using SF Express's new prepaid card, which offers a 4% recharge benefit but has complex rules that make it difficult to utilize the bonus funds effectively. This situation reflects the ongoing price war in the express delivery industry, which has pressured the profitability of SF Holding [3][5][12]. Group 1: Consumer Experience with Bonus Funds - Many consumers report that the bonus funds from the SF Express prepaid card remain unused due to complicated rules that restrict their usage [5][6]. - Users must adhere to a 9:1 ratio when using bonus funds alongside principal funds, and specific conditions must be met for bonus funds to be used independently [8][9]. - The complexity of these rules has led to the emergence of a gray market where intermediaries buy back unused bonus funds at a significant discount [11][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - SF Holding's gross profit margin has declined from 20% in 2017 to 13% in Q3 2025, indicating increasing pressure on profitability [12][15]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a total business volume of 12.15 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, but revenue growth did not translate into profit growth, highlighting a "revenue without profit" dilemma [15][16]. - The average revenue per package has dropped significantly, with a reported 8.49% decrease in November 2025 compared to the previous year [17][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense competition, with price wars that began in 2019 leading to the consolidation of smaller companies and leaving only a few major players [16]. - SF Holding's stock price has fallen significantly, losing two-thirds of its value since its peak in 2021, reflecting market skepticism despite stable operational performance [20][21]. - The company is also facing challenges from changes in e-commerce logistics, as it loses some business to competitors like JD Logistics and Zhongtong Express [19].

Group 1 - The U.S. employment data for June shows mixed results, indicating a steady but weakening economic trend, with expectations of fiscal easing from the "Great Beautiful" plan suggesting resilience in the economy for the near term [1] - China's manufacturing and construction PMI showed marginal improvement in June, with strong midstream equipment manufacturing driven by exports and new industries [1] - The central government has reiterated the need to address low-price disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and automobiles, leading to increased expectations for "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a shift to a looser funding environment post-quarter-end, with overall stability and a slight upward trend, despite weak fundamentals [1] - A-shares are under pressure in terms of corporate earnings, but liquidity and risk appetite are showing signs of recovery, suggesting a bullish market outlook [1] - A suggested investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth assets in Hong Kong and A-shares with low-volatility dividend assets until key economic indicators confirm an upward trend [1] Group 3 - The current low AH share premium and high U.S. Treasury yields may exert medium-term adjustment pressure on the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Oil demand is expected to be weak in 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Economic policy uncertainties due to tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are likely to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, although short-term volatility is expected [2] Group 4 - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for certain stocks [3]

Economic Indicators - The actual GDP decreased by 0.30%, while the current dollar GDP grew by 3.50% [3] - Private domestic purchasers' actual final sales increased by 3.00%, but the import volume surged by 37.9%, significantly lowering GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - Government spending saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, marking the largest drop since 1986 [3] Industry Performance - The actual value added in the private goods-producing sector fell by 2.8%, and the private services sector decreased by 0.3%, although government sector growth of 2.0% somewhat mitigated the overall decline [4] - The measure of current production profits decreased by $906 million, with a further decline of $275 million compared to previous estimates, indicating severe pressure on corporate earnings [4] Inflation Pressure - Inflation remains a significant concern, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.5%, above the expected 3.4% [5] - The domestic total purchase price index increased by 3.4%, and the PCE price index rose by 3.7%, suggesting a persistent upward trend in prices [5] Corporate Investment - May durable goods orders showed a strong increase of 16.4%, the largest since July 2014, exceeding expectations [6] - Core capital goods orders, a key indicator of business equipment investment, rose by 1.7%, indicating some positive signals in corporate investment despite declining profits [6] Employment Market - Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, better than economists' expectations, but layoffs increased, leading to a rise in the number of individuals seeking continued assistance [8] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June, reflecting instability in the job market [8] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark overnight rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since December 2024, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [8]