证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 仍需耐心 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）9 月进出口数据好于预期，9 月财政数据显示财政支出力度较上 月增加。从 10 月高频数据来看，国庆假期前后中上游生产指标趋稳，仅地产 链处于相对低迷状态。总体而言，Q3 以来经济增速回落，但并未出现去年同 期的加速下行状态。2）稳增长政策已落地两项，政策或暂进入观望阶段。 5000 亿新型金融政策性工具以及 5000 亿地方政府债务结存限额为节前预计的 稳增长政策，未来 1-2 个月或暂时进入政策效果观望期。 海外方面，1）10 月 14 日鲍威尔表示就业下行风险的上升改变了美联储对风 险平衡的评估，暗示 10 月将继续降息、并可能即将结束缩表。2）美国地区商 业银行风险持续发酵，但与 23 年 3 月 SVB 破产事件不同，本次风险主要是坏 账问题，暂时不具有系统性。 1、《财政进入年末集中发力期 ——2025 年 9 月财政数据点 评》2025-10-18 2、《9 月金融数据怎么看》 2025-10-16 3、《PPI 回升基础得到进一步 巩固——2025 年 9 月通胀数据 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. employment data for June shows mixed results, indicating a steady but weakening economic trend, with expectations of fiscal easing from the "Great Beautiful" plan suggesting resilience in the economy for the near term [1] - China's manufacturing and construction PMI showed marginal improvement in June, with strong midstream equipment manufacturing driven by exports and new industries [1] - The central government has reiterated the need to address low-price disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and automobiles, leading to increased expectations for "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a shift to a looser funding environment post-quarter-end, with overall stability and a slight upward trend, despite weak fundamentals [1] - A-shares are under pressure in terms of corporate earnings, but liquidity and risk appetite are showing signs of recovery, suggesting a bullish market outlook [1] - A suggested investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth assets in Hong Kong and A-shares with low-volatility dividend assets until key economic indicators confirm an upward trend [1] Group 3 - The current low AH share premium and high U.S. Treasury yields may exert medium-term adjustment pressure on the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Oil demand is expected to be weak in 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Economic policy uncertainties due to tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are likely to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, although short-term volatility is expected [2] Group 4 - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for certain stocks [3]