Group 1 - The global market experienced a "good start" to the fourth quarter during the National Day holiday, with a relatively stable internal and external environment, particularly in the technology sector [1][2] - Analysts predict that active funds may gather again post-holiday, leading to a potential "good start" for A-shares, with increased structural opportunities in the market [1] - The technology sector remains a core focus, as China's tech industry is at a critical breakthrough point, which may enhance the revaluation logic of Chinese assets [1] Group 2 - The A-share market welcomed its first trading day of the fourth quarter on October 9, supported by a positive external environment from overseas markets and resilient domestic consumption data during the holiday [2][3] - The National Foreign Exchange Administration reported that China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $16.5 billion to $333.87 billion by the end of September, indicating a stable economic outlook [3] - The average price of gold on the COMEX reached a historic high of over $4,060 per ounce, driven by increased global demand for safe-haven assets [4][8] Group 3 - The post-holiday period saw a surge in new fund issuances, with 23 funds launched on October 9 alone, indicating a potential influx of capital into the A-share market [5] - The automotive sector showed strong sales growth in September, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, with companies like Seres and Great Wall Motors reporting significant year-on-year increases [5] - The humanoid robot sector has gained significant attention, with related stocks averaging an 83.6% increase this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [6] Group 4 - The State Council's five-year review of policies aimed at improving the quality of listed companies shows a 34.22% increase in the number of listed companies and a 46.92% increase in total market capitalization since the policy's implementation [7] - The technology sector now accounts for over 25% of the A-share market capitalization, surpassing traditional sectors like banking and real estate [7] - Major public fund institutions express confidence in the A-share market's stability and reasonable valuation, supporting a positive long-term outlook [7]

■机构展望 全球大类资产风险偏好回暖 A股"红十月"行情可期 ◎记者 汪友若 10月9日，A股将迎来长假后的首个交易日。回顾长假期间，全球大类资产表现呈现显著的"风险偏好回 暖"与"再通胀交易"特征。 兴业证券称，受全球货币和财政双宽松政策预期的提振，长假期间全球风险资产表现亮眼，这为A股行 情演绎创造了积极的宏观环境。更重要的是，10月A股即将进入三季报交易窗口，这将带动资金聚焦景 气线索、凝聚新的共识，提供更多可挖掘的投资机会。 东吴证券表示，传统日历效应下，长假后市场多呈现"涨多跌少"的格局。且今年长假前2个交易日，市 场已出现资金提前博弈反弹的动作，因此后市指数层面需重视量价的配合情况。长假期间，内外部消息 面较积极，尤其是美联储降息预期升温、AI产业趋势催化显著，预计短期内市场风格或偏向具备产业 消息面催化、远期成长属性更强和估值更低的方向。 华金证券认为，长假前部分投资者担忧的地缘政治冲突、海外流动性收紧等风险事件并未发生。短期A 股流动性或维持充裕、风险偏好持续回暖，A股长假后有望延续震荡偏强的走势。 展望后市，券商研报的共识是，此次长假期间海外市场消息面偏积极，全球主要风险资产联动走强，美 股 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded over $30 from the support level of $3323, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2] - Technically, gold found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $3323 and quickly rebounded, breaking above the 4-hour 200-period moving average at $3346 [2] - If gold can maintain above the 50% retracement level of $3355, it may target the $3374 region and challenge the psychological level of $3400, potentially approaching the monthly high of $3408 [2] - The short-term technical outlook remains moderately bullish, but confirmation of a breakout is needed as the market is in a critical phase of bullish and bearish dynamics [2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have slightly declined due to the U.S. not imposing further restrictions on Russian energy exports, alleviating market concerns about supply disruptions [4] - Initial support for oil prices is around $61, while significant resistance remains at the $65 level [4] - If oil prices continue to trade below the 20-day moving average, the short-term trend may remain weak and volatile [4] - The downward pressure on oil prices is primarily due to a temporary easing of geopolitical uncertainties rather than significant changes in supply and demand [6] - Trump's statements provide a short-term buffer for the market, but any reconsideration of secondary sanctions could lead to a rapid rebound in oil prices [6] - Investor speculation regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts will continue to be a significant variable affecting the energy market [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. employment data for June shows mixed results, indicating a steady but weakening economic trend, with expectations of fiscal easing from the "Great Beautiful" plan suggesting resilience in the economy for the near term [1] - China's manufacturing and construction PMI showed marginal improvement in June, with strong midstream equipment manufacturing driven by exports and new industries [1] - The central government has reiterated the need to address low-price disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and automobiles, leading to increased expectations for "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a shift to a looser funding environment post-quarter-end, with overall stability and a slight upward trend, despite weak fundamentals [1] - A-shares are under pressure in terms of corporate earnings, but liquidity and risk appetite are showing signs of recovery, suggesting a bullish market outlook [1] - A suggested investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth assets in Hong Kong and A-shares with low-volatility dividend assets until key economic indicators confirm an upward trend [1] Group 3 - The current low AH share premium and high U.S. Treasury yields may exert medium-term adjustment pressure on the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Oil demand is expected to be weak in 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Economic policy uncertainties due to tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are likely to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, although short-term volatility is expected [2] Group 4 - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for certain stocks [3]