接下来再说一下原油： 金价自3323反弹逾30美元，主要受美联储9月降息预期及美债收益率下滑推动。然而美元小幅走强和风险偏好回升限制了黄金的上行动能。 从技术来看，金价在61.8%斐波回撤位3323获支撑后快速反弹，突破了4小时200均线3346。若能持续站稳50%斐波回撤位3355上方，后续或有望上探3374 区域，并进一步挑战3400美元整数关口，甚至逼近月内高点3408。若黄金下行，下方支撑200均线3346及3323关键回撤位3323。 整体上，短期技术面仍偏向温和看涨，但行情仍需确认突破。当前黄金处于多空博弈的关键阶段。美联储降息预期与美债收益率下滑构成支撑，但美元的 强势和风险偏好回暖形成压制。 今天，我认为黄金回落后向上反弹，欧美盘重点关注3340-3335的区域入场多，向上目标3365-3370，震荡行情并非强势单边，不必急于追多，永远别把没 抓住的行情当成一种损失，只做自己认知范围内的交易。（提示：重仓，不止损，锁仓者勿借鉴） 油价小幅下滑，因美国未进一步加大对俄罗斯能源出口的限制措施。特朗普与普京会晤后表示，暂不考虑对亚洲国家等主要进口国采取二级制裁，这缓解 了市场对供应中断的担忧。 从日 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. employment data for June shows mixed results, indicating a steady but weakening economic trend, with expectations of fiscal easing from the "Great Beautiful" plan suggesting resilience in the economy for the near term [1] - China's manufacturing and construction PMI showed marginal improvement in June, with strong midstream equipment manufacturing driven by exports and new industries [1] - The central government has reiterated the need to address low-price disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and automobiles, leading to increased expectations for "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a shift to a looser funding environment post-quarter-end, with overall stability and a slight upward trend, despite weak fundamentals [1] - A-shares are under pressure in terms of corporate earnings, but liquidity and risk appetite are showing signs of recovery, suggesting a bullish market outlook [1] - A suggested investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth assets in Hong Kong and A-shares with low-volatility dividend assets until key economic indicators confirm an upward trend [1] Group 3 - The current low AH share premium and high U.S. Treasury yields may exert medium-term adjustment pressure on the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Oil demand is expected to be weak in 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Economic policy uncertainties due to tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are likely to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, although short-term volatility is expected [2] Group 4 - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for certain stocks [3]