Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collective appreciation of Asian currencies during the May Day holiday, primarily driven by the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which rose by 6.8% [2][8]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is attributed to exporters selling US dollars and insurance companies' foreign exchange hedging operations, which may have intensified the currency's rise [11][12]. - The article suggests that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may not be an isolated case, as a weakening US dollar could lead to a repatriation of foreign assets, further driving local currency appreciation [11][12]. Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, global asset performance leaned towards a "risk-on" sentiment, with major stock markets experiencing gains, particularly the Nasdaq index, which rose by 3% [4][18]. - The US non-farm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, indicating a robust labor market and alleviating recession concerns [5][29]. - The US GDP for Q1 turned negative for the first time since Q3 2022, recording a -0.3% growth rate, primarily due to a significant decline in net exports [5][35]. Group 3 - The Bank of Japan decided to pause interest rate hikes, maintaining the policy rate at 0.5%, citing uncertainties related to tariff policies as a key factor [5][36]. - The OPEC+ meeting on May 3 agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is three times the original planned increase, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [6][41]. - Warren Buffett announced his retirement at the end of the year during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, emphasizing the importance of not using trade as a weapon and expressing optimism about the US economy [7][42].

汇率升值：节后悬念几何？ 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com ➢ 尽管此前有九连涨的标普，汇率反而成了"主角"，尤其是亚洲货币。离岸 人民币一度涨破7.20；港币连续触及强方兑换保证（当港币相对美元升值至7.75， 香港金管局需要卖出港币、避免升破 7.75）；台币更是涨出了"恐慌"的感觉— —两天累计上涨超过 9%（这种幅度在汇率市场十分少见）。 ➢ 其中最直接的导火索无非是美国关税谈判的积极信号，外加市场的"遐想"： 上周五中国商务部表示"正在评估中美谈判"；中国台湾和美国完成第一轮贸易 谈判（"坦诚、友好"），而市场开始"遐想"台币升值可能是达成协议的重要内 容。我们想回答两个问题：短期内，节后怎么看待人民币的升值空间？中长期看， 亚洲货币的少见变化透露了什么信号？ ➢ 那么，后续人民币的升值的空间有多大？我们认为，既然美国大幅加征关税 时人民币贬值有限，对中美谈判出现缓和带来的升值预 ...