华尔街日报：以军空袭下德黑兰急寻谈判"逃生口" 金十数据6月17日讯，据华尔街日报报道，外交官和分析人士称，伊朗的下一步行动可能决定这个政权 能否渡过这场可说是自20世纪80年代两伊战争以来最严重的危机。德黑兰正将谈判视为可能的"逃生出 口"，一种既保全面子又维持统治的方式。伊朗取消了原定于周日与美国就核协议举行的谈判，但随着 以色列袭击的加剧，德黑兰释放出愿意外交的信号。特朗普总统也表示希望达成协议并结束战争。他周 一证实，伊朗已通过中间人进行了接触。尽管伊朗因袭击而被削弱，但目前尚不清楚它在谈判的条件或 实质内容上愿意做出多少妥协。伊朗高级官员公开表达了对特朗普的不信任，并驳斥了他关于美国未参 与以色列对伊朗袭击的说法。然而，在谴责以色列的同时，他们也小心翼翼地不严厉攻击特朗普政府， 担心采取任何可能激怒美国引发对抗的措施。 ...

Group 1: Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Copper prices show strong resilience due to US tariff policies despite the domestic market entering the off - season. There are concerns about supply due to the shutdown of the Kamoa copper mine [1] - Summary: - Intraday View: Fluctuate between 77,500 - 79,000 [1] - Medium - term View: Fluctuate between 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - Core Logic: Macro - Trump postponed EU tariffs, increasing market risk appetite; Supply - LME available inventory dropped to a one - year low, and the Kakula copper mine in Congo stopped production; Demand - US tariff policy boosted import demand, while domestic downstream demand declined; Inventory - LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased [1] Group 2: Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The trend of soybean meal being stronger in the far - term than the near - term is weakening. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options on near - term soybean meal contracts and holding the "long soybean oil 2509 - short palm oil 2509" position [4][6] - Summary: - Intraday View: Soybean and rapeseed meal continue to fluctuate widely [2] - Medium - term View: The far - strong and near - weak trend of soybean meal weakens [4] - Reference Strategy: Sell the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2509 - P - 2850 [4] - Core Logic: As of May 27, the basis of soybean meal spot - 09 was negative. There may be positive factors from US soybean shipments and weather speculation. Domestic soybean meal has the characteristic of "not following the rise of the external market". The US biodiesel policy and RVO obligations have uncertainties. South American soybean production is finalized, and the focus shifts to North America. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, while Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to decline [4][5][6] Group 3: Petroleum Asphalt - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the short term, asphalt prices face upward pressure due to factors such as rainfall and funds. In the long term, with the increase in supply and weak demand, if oil prices decline, asphalt prices are expected to follow a weak trend [8][10] - Summary: - Intraday View: Operate under pressure [7] - Medium - term View: Oscillate weakly [7] - Reference Strategy: Sell at high prices [8] - Core Logic: Supply - Local refineries are in a loss - making state, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has declined. Production is expected to increase in May. Demand - Rainfall in some areas and poor project funds have led to weak demand. Inventory - Asphalt plant inventory has decreased, while social inventory has increased. Cost - Oil price fluctuations are large, and there is support from raw material costs [8][9]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price experienced a decline, closing at $3341.69 per ounce, down 0.67% from the previous day, with a trading range between $3366.36 and $3319.82 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but highlighted increasing risks related to inflation and unemployment, complicating the economic outlook [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a key support level at $3303 and resistance at $3350, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are expected to rebound, potentially surpassing $60 per barrel, amid expectations that the US-China trade war has peaked [4] - Recent declines in Brent and WTI crude oil prices were attributed to market skepticism regarding trade negotiations and positive signals from Iran's nuclear talks [4] - The technical outlook for oil shows a downward trend, with a potential target of $50, and a recommendation to sell on rebounds with resistance at $60.3 and support at $57.0 [5]