Group 1: Macro - The domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures. The upcoming July Politburo meeting is expected to introduce growth - stabilizing policies. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but leaves long - term uncertainty for trade - dependent sectors [2] - The four major stock index futures contracts closed up, with IM performing the strongest. The market sentiment is warm, but the trading volume shrank by 89.1 billion yuan, showing cautious chasing sentiment. Mid - term breakthrough needs fundamental support [2] - For unilateral strategies, focus on long opportunities in small and medium - cap indexes, beware of basis fluctuations. For arbitrage strategies, there may be IM/IC reverse arbitrage opportunities due to the convergence of deep discounts in far - month contracts [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The low dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut and the OPEC+ July meeting has expectations of accelerated production increase, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term [3] - Trump's tweet and potential OPEC+ production increase put oil prices in a relatively weak position, but the upcoming summer peak season provides some support. Market expectations for summer demand are pessimistic [3] - Pay attention to the support level of around $65 per barrel for WTI [3] Group 3: Gold - The June non - farm data basically rules out a July interest rate cut. Trump's tariff policy and central bank gold - buying behavior support gold prices in the long term [4] - In the short term, trade risks and high - interest rate prospects weaken gold's appeal, but in the long term, the "Big and Beautiful Act" and tariff uncertainties enhance its hedging value [5] - Focus on the battle around the $3350 per ounce multi - empty dividing line, with support around $3300 per ounce. Pay attention to the Fed's June meeting minutes [5] Group 4: Silver - On July 8, Asian session, spot silver opened at $36.769 per ounce and maintained a narrow - range oscillation [6] - The US economic recovery is weak, tariff policies increase uncertainty, but Indian physical investment and industrial demand support silver prices. The gold - silver ratio has reached a new low [6] - In the short term, pay attention to the support in the range of $36.60 - $36.45 per ounce. Policy games before August 1 may boost silver prices [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4805 yuan/ton. Cost support is weak, and the supply pressure has increased significantly. Demand is sluggish with a negative outlook [7] - It will be in a short - term weak consolidation. Pay attention to raw material disturbances and downstream production cuts [7] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4347 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance with inventory pressure. It will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - Be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports. Aggressive investors can short on rallies [8] PVC - The spot price in East China has decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventory has increased [9][10] - The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10] PP - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand has weakened slightly, and inventory has decreased [11] - The fundamentals have not improved, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The spot prices in different regions have decreased. Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased [13] - The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has decreased due to more maintenance, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14] - It is recommended to adopt a bottom - range oscillation strategy in the short term [14] Glass - The spot price in Shahe remains unchanged. Supply has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [15] - It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy in the short term [15] Rubber - The spot prices of different types of rubber are provided. New rubber supply has increased, and raw material prices have declined. Demand from the tire industry is weak [16] - It will oscillate with the market, and the rebound height may be limited. Pay attention to downstream tire开工 rates [16] Methanol - The spot prices in different regions remain unchanged. The futures price has decreased, port inventory has increased, supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand is weak [17] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory accumulation and Iranian plant resumption [17] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is in a new - old grain transition period. Demand is weak [18][19] - The futures price will test the support level of around 2300 yuan/ton in the short term [19] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions are provided. The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a supply - demand weak pattern [20] - The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term range. Pay attention to the support around 8000 yuan/ton [20] Cotton - The spot prices are provided. The US production forecast has been revised down, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose. The current supply is tightening, but demand is weak [21] - The cotton price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to market speculation [21] Pig - The spot price has decreased. Supply has increased as farmers are more willing to sell, and demand is weak due to high temperatures and lack of holidays [22] - The 2509 contract has high uncertainty. Pay attention to pig slaughtering [22] Egg - The spot price has decreased. Supply is sufficient as the number of laying hens increases, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [23] - The price will oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to farmers' culling intentions and it is recommended to wait and see [23] Soybean Meal - The spot prices in different regions are provided. International factors are tariffs and weather, and domestic supply pressure is high while demand is strong [24] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Soybean Oil - The spot prices in different regions are provided. Internationally, pay attention to US soybean growing weather and MPOB report. Domestically, supply pressure is high and demand is in the off - season [25] - The price may oscillate weakly in the short term [25] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The spot price has decreased. Trump's tariff threat on copper has caused fluctuations in US copper. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material issues and inventory changes complicate the market [26] - The copper price has fallen from above 80,000 yuan. Consider removing defenses on rallies [26] Shanghai Aluminum - The spot price has decreased. The high probability of a Fed rate hike in July and tariffs suppress prices. Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is starting to accumulate [27] - Aggressive investors can conduct range operations, and conservative investors should wait and see [27] Alumina - The spot price is basically stable. Trade policy uncertainty increases. Supply is affected by bauxite shortages, demand is stable but the procurement rhythm has slowed, and inventory costs have decreased [28][29] - The over - supply expectation remains, and it may be stimulated by news in the short term [29] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price remains unchanged. Cost provides support, supply is facing over - capacity, demand will enter the off - season, and inventory is increasing [30] - The 2511 contract will maintain a range oscillation [30] Lithium Carbonate - The spot prices remain unchanged. Cost support has strengthened, supply is stable at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [31] - Aggressive investors can try long positions near the moving average, and conservative investors should wait and see [31] Industrial Silicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand varies in different sectors. It will oscillate strongly in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [32] - Adopt a range operation strategy and wait for key support and pressure levels [32] Polysilicon - The spot prices have increased. Supply is structurally differentiated, demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [33][34] - Pay attention to the 40,000 - yuan pressure level. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking [34] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The spot price remains unchanged. The cost is supported, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly [35] - It will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [35] Rebar - The spot price remains unchanged. Macro sentiment has improved, cost support has strengthened, demand has increased slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink [36] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [36] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price has decreased. Similar to rebar, macro factors drive the market, cost support is strong, demand has increased slightly, and supply is expected to shrink [37] - Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [37] Iron Ore - The spot prices are provided. Import volume has increased slightly, demand is facing short - term contraction due to environmental policies, port inventory has decreased slightly, and the market has large differences [38] - The main contract will oscillate in a range in the short term, and investors should be cautious [38] Coal - The spot price of coke has increased. For coking coal, production has increased, inventory has decreased in some areas, and prices have rebounded slightly. For coke, production losses have increased, demand has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased [39][40] - Coking coal will remain weakly stable, and the coke main contract may oscillate strongly. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40]

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The PTA supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the spot market liquidity is tight after continuous destocking. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production, so the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate within a range following the cost side in the short - term, and the spot basis will remain strong [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted weakly on Wednesday. The market negotiation was acceptable. The spot basis weakened in the morning and then recovered in the afternoon. It is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June will still be tight. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign in the medium - and short - term, which will support the price [7]. - Influencing factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a destocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, supporting price rebounds. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The domestic polyester average operating rate is 85%, and some small and medium - sized enterprises are below 70%, with over - capacity of low - end products leading to intense price competition and high inventory levels for filaments and staple fibers [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The spot price was 4,870, the basis of the 09 contract was 200, and the futures was at a discount. The PTA factory inventory was 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net long, with long positions decreasing [5]. - MEG: The spot price was 4,415, the basis of the 09 contract was 123, and the futures was at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region was 573,700 tons, a decrease of 66,500 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net short, with short positions increasing [7][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. 3.5 Price - It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA basis, MEG basis, and various spread data from 2020 to 2025, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [15][18][22][23][28][35]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [41]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream Start - up - It includes the start - up rate data of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52]. 3.8 Polyester Downstream Start - up - It presents the start - up rate data of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56]. 3.9 Processing Fees and Profits - PTA Processing Fees: It shows the PTA processing fee data from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [60]. - MEG Profits: It includes the production profit data of different production methods of ethylene glycol (methanol - based, coal - based, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel [63]. - Polyester Fiber Profits: It shows the production profit data of polyester fiber short - staple, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. - The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with an expected inventory reduction of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebounds [8]. - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. Enterprises need to accelerate the layout of production capacity in Southeast Asia. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%. Low - end overcapacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis declined. The negotiation was mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The main port in mid - and late June was traded at 09 + 200 - 210, and the price negotiation range was around 4,830 - 5,000. The warehouse receipts this week were traded at 09 + 220. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 + 207 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,905, the basis of the 09 contract is 277, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [5]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main positions**: The net long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [5]. - **Expectation**: Last week, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself is acceptable. After continuous inventory reduction in the early stage, the current spot market liquidity is tight, and the spot basis is running strongly. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production and load. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate within a range following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to the impact of the OPEC + meeting results on oil prices and changes in polyester devices [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. Today, the explicit inventory of ethylene glycol decreased significantly, basically in line with market expectations. In the morning, the price center of ethylene glycol adjusted weakly, and the buying sentiment in the market was average. In the afternoon, the spot basis weakened significantly, and the low - end transactions at the end of the session reached around 138 - 140 yuan/ton, with an increase in low - end trading volume. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly. In the afternoon, the negotiation center of recent shipments fell to around 520 - 521 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation for shipments in late June and early July was at 516 - 518 US dollars/ton, with weak market negotiation [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,478, the basis of the 09 contract is 172, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 573,700 tons, a decrease of 66,500 tons compared to the previous period, which is bullish [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The main net short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Last week, the shipping efficiency of ethylene glycol ports was acceptable. Combined with the small number of foreign arrivals during the week, it is expected that the port inventory will decrease significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival. The inventory of mainstream trading tanks in Zhangjiagang is likely to fall below 200,000 tons. The tradable spot of ethylene glycol in June is still in short supply, and the spot basis will mainly maintain a strong operation. In the future, attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign in the medium and short term, which supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PTA production capacity, production capacity increment, load, output, import, total supply, supply year - on - year change, polyester production capacity, new polyester production capacity, polyester load, polyester output, PTA consumption by polyester, other PTA demand, PTA export, total PTA demand, demand year - on - year change, PTA ending inventory, inventory change, inventory - consumption ratio, and supply - demand gap from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the total ethylene glycol operating rate, total production, new production capacity, production, import, total supply, supply year - on - year change, polyester production capacity, new polyester production capacity, polyester operating rate, polyester output, ethylene glycol consumption by polyester, other ethylene glycol consumption, ethylene glycol export, total ethylene glycol demand, demand year - on - year change, ethylene glycol port inventory, port inventory change, inventory - consumption ratio, and supply - demand gap from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. Other Data Presented - **Price - related data**: Include bottle - chip spot price, bottle - chip production profit, bottle - chip capacity utilization rate, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG month - to - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, etc., with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][14][27] - **Inventory - related data**: Include PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, etc., with data sources from Wind [40][41][45] - **Operating rate - related data**: Include the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol in the polyester upstream, and the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines in the polyester downstream, with data sources from Wind [51][55] - **Profit - related data**: Include PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods, and production profits of polyester fibers, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel [59][62][65]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in retail fuel prices, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 65 yuan and 60 yuan respectively, effective from June 3, 2025, indicating the fourth price adjustment in the domestic refined oil market [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The retail prices for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will increase by 0.05 yuan per liter [1] - The increase in fuel prices is relatively small, with many regions still experiencing gasoline prices around 6 yuan per liter, leading to limited cost increases for consumers [1] - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost an additional 2.5 yuan, while a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km will see an increase of about 4 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend due to factors such as the US-China trade war, geopolitical issues, and OPEC+ plans for increased production [1] - Domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale prices have been fluctuating, with a recent tightening in supply leading to a strong upward pressure on prices in certain regions [2] - Analysts predict that despite the limited increase in retail prices, there may still be room for further increases in wholesale prices in the upcoming sales cycle [2]

Group 1: Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Copper prices show strong resilience due to US tariff policies despite the domestic market entering the off - season. There are concerns about supply due to the shutdown of the Kamoa copper mine [1] - Summary: - Intraday View: Fluctuate between 77,500 - 79,000 [1] - Medium - term View: Fluctuate between 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - Core Logic: Macro - Trump postponed EU tariffs, increasing market risk appetite; Supply - LME available inventory dropped to a one - year low, and the Kakula copper mine in Congo stopped production; Demand - US tariff policy boosted import demand, while domestic downstream demand declined; Inventory - LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased [1] Group 2: Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The trend of soybean meal being stronger in the far - term than the near - term is weakening. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options on near - term soybean meal contracts and holding the "long soybean oil 2509 - short palm oil 2509" position [4][6] - Summary: - Intraday View: Soybean and rapeseed meal continue to fluctuate widely [2] - Medium - term View: The far - strong and near - weak trend of soybean meal weakens [4] - Reference Strategy: Sell the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2509 - P - 2850 [4] - Core Logic: As of May 27, the basis of soybean meal spot - 09 was negative. There may be positive factors from US soybean shipments and weather speculation. Domestic soybean meal has the characteristic of "not following the rise of the external market". The US biodiesel policy and RVO obligations have uncertainties. South American soybean production is finalized, and the focus shifts to North America. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, while Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to decline [4][5][6] Group 3: Petroleum Asphalt - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the short term, asphalt prices face upward pressure due to factors such as rainfall and funds. In the long term, with the increase in supply and weak demand, if oil prices decline, asphalt prices are expected to follow a weak trend [8][10] - Summary: - Intraday View: Operate under pressure [7] - Medium - term View: Oscillate weakly [7] - Reference Strategy: Sell at high prices [8] - Core Logic: Supply - Local refineries are in a loss - making state, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has declined. Production is expected to increase in May. Demand - Rainfall in some areas and poor project funds have led to weak demand. Inventory - Asphalt plant inventory has decreased, while social inventory has increased. Cost - Oil price fluctuations are large, and there is support from raw material costs [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [2] - CSI 1000: Upward [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strongly oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: On the sidelines [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron and steel industry is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease for the five major steel products persists. The decline in steel prices reduces the rigid demand for raw material procurement. The profitability rate of steel mills is currently high, and the temporary easing of Sino-US relations brings new restocking demand. However, the daily average pig iron output in the previous period decreased by 11,700 tons to 2.436 million tons, exceeding market expectations. The port inventory level of iron ore remains relatively high, exerting pressure on prices. In the long term, domestic demand is weak, and investors who have already entered short positions during the rebound caused by the easing of the trade conflict should continue to hold [2]. - The output of coking coal is at a high level, and the downstream restocking motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. As pig iron output declines and coking coal supply continues to increase, the far-month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as coking coal prices fall, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, and most enterprises remain profitable. However, steel mills have initiated a second round of price cuts on coking enterprises today, squeezing coking enterprises' profits. With the arrival of high-temperature weather in various regions, downstream demand weakens, the phenomenon of steel mills controlling production increases, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises rises. The overall inventory of coke has increased month-on-month, and the pattern of oversupply in the coking coal and coke market remains unchanged, generally following the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in rebar is gradually weakening. The demand decline is relatively slow in the short term, and steel supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even reverse in mid-June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. The profits of long-process steel mills have been repaired periodically, and the blast furnaces under maintenance have resumed production, keeping the supply at a high level. Domestic demand declines seasonally. Attention should be paid to the rush export demand brought about by the 90-day suspension of the 24% tariff. It is expected that steel prices will remain oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for a clear signal of demand decline [2]. - There are rumors in the market that glass manufacturers in Hubei plan to cut production, and production and sales have improved. Recently, some production lines have been restarted after cold repair, and the daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. The daily output of float glass remained stable last week. The spot price of float glass has declined slightly, and profits have also been squeezed. The production enthusiasm of manufacturers in the Shahe area is relatively high, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Both the national manufacturers' inventory and the Shahe area have seen substantial inventory accumulation. The market sentiment of buying up but not buying down is strong, and downstream traders and processing enterprises are highly cautious. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and the year-on-year decline in housing completion area is relatively large, making it difficult for glass demand to recover significantly. As the peak season transitions to the off-season, the fundamentals lack the driving force for an upward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2]. - For stock index futures and options, on the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.57%, the SSE 50 index closed down 0.46%, the CSI 500 index closed up 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 index closed up 0.65%. Funds flowed into the leisure products and power generation equipment sectors, while flowing out of the pharmaceutical and automobile sectors. The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics," which proposes to improve the enterprise income distribution system, promote enterprises to establish a reasonable wage growth mechanism, deepen the reform of the wage distribution system of state-owned enterprises, implement the wage total budget cycle system in eligible state-owned enterprises, promote listed companies to carry out medium- and long-term incentives, formulate stable and long-term cash dividend policies, strengthen the fiduciary duties of controlling shareholders to the company, and support listed companies to introduce institutional investors with a shareholding ratio of more than 5% as active shareholders. Moody's has decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance stated that since the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese government has implemented a package of macroeconomic control policies, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium- and long-term sustainability of debt. Moody's decision to maintain the stability of China's sovereign credit rating is a positive reflection of China's economic prospects. In the next step, a series of incremental and existing policies will work together and continue to show results, providing solid support for high-quality economic development. China will remain confident and focused on its own affairs regardless of external changes. The Sino-US tariff issue has achieved phased results, the external market has stabilized, market risk aversion has eased, and investors should hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - For Treasury bonds, the yield of the 10-year Chinese Treasury bond has decreased by 2 basis points, FR007 has increased by 7 basis points, and SHIBOR3M has remained unchanged. The central bank announced that on May 26, it conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tender, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 382 billion yuan, and a winning volume of 382 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 247 billion yuan. The market interest rate is consolidating, and Treasury bonds are oscillating in a narrow range. Investors should hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - In the context of a high-interest-rate environment and the reconstruction of globalization, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to the central bank's gold purchases, which are the key and reflect the "decentralization" and risk aversion needs. In terms of its monetary attribute, the debt problem has caused cracks in the currency credit of the US dollar, highlighting the de-fiat currency attribute of gold in the process of de-dollarization. In terms of its financial attribute, in the global high-interest-rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-coupon bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of its risk aversion attribute, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains strong, becoming an important factor driving up the gold price in the short term. In terms of its commodity attribute, the demand for physical gold in China has increased significantly, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has been increasing its holdings for six consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving up the gold price has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of the tariff policy will dominate the change in market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, the non-farm payrolls data shows that the labor market is relatively strong, with non-farm employment exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%. The latest PCE data shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising 2.6% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, and PCE rising 2.3% year-on-year, slightly higher than market expectations. The CPI in April rose 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and indicating a continuous decline in inflation. However, inflation is expected to rise again under the influence of tariffs. In the short term, the uncertainty in the trade environment has raised concerns about the global economy, geopolitical risks continue to rise, and the risk aversion demand for gold remains strong. Coupled with the weak US dollar index, it supports the rise in the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will remain strongly oscillating. Attention should be paid to this week's PCE data and meeting minutes [4]. - The spot market price of pulp loosened slightly on the previous trading day, with the price of some softwood pulp in the spot market falling by 20 - 50 yuan/ton and that of some hardwood pulp loosening by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp has decreased by 55 US dollars to 770 US dollars/ton, and that of hardwood pulp has decreased by 70 US dollars to 560 US dollars/ton. The decline in the cost price weakens the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry is at a low level, paper mills' inventories continue to accumulate, and they are not willing to accept high-priced pulp, purchasing raw materials only based on rigid demand. The demand has entered the off-season, which is negative for pulp prices. Paper mills have successively issued price increase notices, which is beneficial for boosting industry sentiment. It is expected that pulp prices will oscillate [6]. - The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 62,100 cubic meters, an increase of 700 cubic meters month-on-month. The downstream has entered the off-season, and it is expected to be difficult to return to the level of 70,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in March was 1.659 million cubic meters, a 32% increase from the previous month. New Zealand has started to cut production, and the log shipment volume has decreased. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume will start to decrease. The expected arrival volume last week was 421,000 cubic meters, a 52% increase month-on-month. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.43 million cubic meters, a 20,000-cubic-meter increase month-on-month. The spot market price has been relatively stable. The spot market price in Shandong has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, a 10-yuan decrease from last week, and that in Jiangsu has remained stable at 770 yuan/cubic meter, also a 10-yuan decrease from last week. The latest CFR quotation has decreased by 4 US dollars to 110 US dollars/cubic meter, and it is expected that the June quotation will remain the same. The negative impact on the cost side may weaken. In the short term, the spot market price is relatively stable, demand has improved month-on-month, the arrival volume in the past two weeks has been lower than the average level, and the supply pressure has relatively decreased. The fundamentals of the log market have marginally improved. It is expected that log prices will oscillate [6]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil jumped to a six-month high of 1.87 million metric tons in April due to a surge in production and a decline in domestic consumption, a 19.4% month-on-month increase. Indonesia has raised the export tax on palm oil, while Malaysia has lowered the export tax on crude palm oil in June. The price of Indonesian palm oil has lost its competitive edge compared to Malaysia, which is conducive to stimulating the export potential of Malaysian palm oil. However, Malaysian palm oil is in the seasonal production increase cycle, and the production increase is higher than the export increase, so inventory may continue to accumulate. The US biofuel policy still has great uncertainty. South American soybeans have achieved a record high yield, and the domestic arrival volume of soybeans has increased significantly. As the overall operating rate of oil mills has increased, the inventory of soybean oil has started to rise. Although the import profit of palm oil is still negative, palm oil purchases have increased, further replenishing domestic inventory. The supply of the three major oils is abundant. Currently, it is the traditional off-season for oil consumption, and the pre-Dragon Boat Festival stocking is about to end. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate bearishly. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - The new crop inventory of US soybeans may become even tighter, leaving less room for error during the critical summer growing season for US soybeans, whose sown area is already expected to decrease. Rainfall in the US Midwest has slowed down spring sowing, and there are concerns about soybean production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain. The increase in the premium of Brazilian soybeans has driven up the cost of imported soybeans. The domestic arrival volume of soybeans in May has surged to about 11 million tons, and customs clearance has accelerated recently. With the large arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean supply situation has become more relaxed, and the overall operating rate of oil mills has recovered to over 50%. The inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the trading sentiment has improved after the continuous decline in the market. The spot trading volume has increased, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized, alleviating the domestic supply pressure. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in North America, the logistics delays in Brazil, and the soybean arrival situation [6]. - The Sino-US trade relations have eased, the USDA report is moderately positive, the export of new Brazilian soybeans has accelerated, and there are concerns about soybean production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain. According to the shipping and berthing forecasts of major soybean-producing countries, the domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be relatively large from May to June, exceeding 11 million tons each month. Soybean customs clearance has accelerated, and the soybean inventory has continued to rise. The overall operating rate of oil mills has recovered to over 50%, and the domestic soybean spot price has remained stable. It is expected that the price of No. 2 soybeans will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean-producing areas and the soybean arrival situation [6]. - In terms of supply, the latest data shows that the average slaughter weight of live pigs across the country shows a slight upward trend, with an average trading weight of 126.5 kilograms, a 0.07% month-on-month increase. Regionally, the average trading weight in different provinces varies. Due to the adjustment of the procurement strategy of some local slaughter enterprises, which have reduced the purchase of large-weight pigs, and the decline in the inventory of large pigs after the previous concentrated slaughter, the average trading weight in some areas has decreased. On the other hand, most provinces' breeding farms still maintain the strategy of holding back pigs for weight gain, artificially extending the breeding cycle and driving up the slaughter weight. Slaughter enterprises' demand for standard-weight pigs of 125 - 140 kilograms remains stable, driving up the overall average purchase weight. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of key slaughter enterprises is 34.76%, a 0.18-percentage-point increase from last week. After the festival, the terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally, the downstream procurement and stocking enthusiasm has weakened, and there is no significant boost factor on the consumption side. It is expected that the operating rate of slaughter enterprises will remain oscillating or show a slight decline. After the festival, the consumption demand decreases cyclically, the procurement volume of terminal catering and households has decreased, and the sales of pork products have slowed down. Although it is the traditional off-season for consumption and the slaughter demand remains low, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports prices. It is expected that the live pig market will show a pattern of tight supply in May. The self-breeding and self-raising cost of leading enterprises is supported at around 13,000 yuan per head. There is no obvious upward driving force in the market, and it is expected that pig prices will remain oscillating [8]. - On the supply side, the weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber-producing areas have intensified, and rubber supply is under short-term pressure. Recently, there has been frequent rainfall in the main natural rubber-producing areas at home and abroad, significantly interfering with rubber tapping operations. The rainfall in the Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to increase in the coming week, and heavy rain is expected in Myanmar and the western part of Thailand (north of the equator), significantly restricting rubber tapping activities. The weather conditions in the producing areas south of the equator are relatively stable, with rainfall in the medium to low range, having limited impact on rubber tapping. As a result, the supply of rubber raw materials has tightened, and the purchase